MikeC
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Friday, October 29, 2010 3:30PM EDT
And the season has managed to create the 19th named storm of the season with Tropical Storm Tomas forming from 91L. The Caribbean should keep a close eye on this storm, as it has the potential to be a threat.
Friday October 29, 2010 2:00PM EDT Brief Update
Recon is now flying Invest 91L, and is already finding maximum sustained winds of at least 40MPH, and fairly low pressures, having only just started sampling the storm. 91L is certainly on the cusp of becoming Tomas, if not already there, and interests in the Caribbean should be taking this feature seriously, despite the time of year.
Also just a quick note that Tropical Storm Shary is now up to 60MPH, and looks to have started making the forecast turn towards Bermuda.
By the way, Dr. Masters has more "inside looks" from the National Hurricane Center out today, as they relate to Shary, 91L and more. You can read his latest entry, "Shary forms; potentially dangerous 91L approaching Lesser Antilles," (HERE)
- Ciel
Friday October 29, 2010 3:00AM EDT Update
Invest 91L has become much better organized, and now presents some risk to the eastern Caribbean islands starting as soon as over the weekend, and perhaps including other Caribbean locations, into next week.
91L has true potential to become a player in the 2010 Atlantic record books. Internally and externally, 91L has some of the best factors going for it this year, and even though it is getting a bit late in the season, it is not unreasonable to consider preparing for the possibility of a large and powerful tropical cyclone in the Caribbean over the course of the next week or so.
Along those lines, some models now suggest that 91L will become a significant hurricane in the central and/or eastern Caribbean, and then kind of lollygag around in the same general location for several days. While by no means close to a certainty, this scenario actually looks plausible. However, it is very important to keep in mind that model forecasts made several days in advance when little (and in 91L's case, very little, so far) reliable data has been fed into them, are not always terribly reliable.
Hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly 91L later today, and this scheduled flight will most likely be kept. In fact, it is looking increasingly probable that 91L gets officially upgraded to a numbered tropical cyclone later this morning, even if recon has not yet made it out there.
Interests in the eastern Caribbean, including perhaps along the northernmost reaches of South America, may want to begin taking some initial precautions for the very high potential of a robust tropical cyclone bringing inclement weather starting as soon as later today, and/or into next week.
Other Features:
Tropical Storm Shary continues moving rapidly towards Bermuda, and may bring the island a blast of blustery rain before quickly blowing out for sea, most likely to be absorbed by the cold front now exiting the east coast. There is a chance that despite being small in size and moving very fast, long "arms" on either side of Shary may prolong wet and windy weather associated with it from Friday, well into Saturday, as well.
Invest 90L, which at one point was 's favorite for development, continues to be inhibited by shear. However, there remains a slim opportunity for tropical cyclogenesis to occur within the next few days. 90L is practically no threat to land, save maybe the Azores, either way.
- Ciel
Thursday October 28, 2010 11:00 PM EDT Update
Well, 92L beat the still organizing 91L and has gone from Invest straight to tropical storm Shary. Top winds are 40MPH, and appears to only be a potential threat to Bermuda - assuming it survives the fairly hostile environment ahead.
Thursday October 28, 2010 2:00 AM EDT Update
Formation of a tropical cyclone during the last week of October is certainly not unheard of, in and of itself, but having three modest to high potential suspect areas is, somewhat - also when considering their location - as late-season named storms more often tend to form in the western Atlantic.
NHC has just outlined in Red Invest 92L at 60%, Orange over Invest 90L at 50%, and Yellow remains over Invest 91L at a possibly conservative 20%.
Invest 90L
As of 2:00 AM EDT, Invest 90L consists of a well-defined surface low pressure system, with a ball of persistent and somewhat deep convection firing off in the eastern semicircle. Only a small increase in convective organization from this point could easily result in the quick formation of a named tropical storm, bypassing depression status.
The most likely future track of Invest 90L, regardless of additional development or not, would keep it far away from the U.S., but perhaps present a problem for some shipping interests, and maybe later on, the Azores.
Invest 91L
As of 2:00 AM EDT, Invest 91L remains an unseasonably vigorous tropical wave centered roughly 1,050 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands, and moving generally west-northwest. Environmental conditions look to favor some continued development of this feature, and further development in the near term or not, wet and blustery weather will likely be approaching the eastern Caribbean in a few days, either way.
NHC currently gives 91L an arguably conservative 20% probably for tropical cyclone development within 48 hours.
Invest 92L
Most impressive in the very near term, Invest 92L does look to be in the process of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression at this time, and now gives it a 60% chance of becoming an officiated system within the next 48 hours.
While the U.S. would most probably not be directly impacted by 92L, should it develop, Bermuda might, and there is some possibility that 92L tracks further west than that.
- Ciel
Original Entry
Three areas in the Atlantic have some potential for development,
90L, 91L and 92L.
More to come on these later, but none are immediate threats.
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cieldumort
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TCFAs have been issued on both Invest 92L & 91L.
Invest 92L now appears to be on the cusp of becoming, if not perhaps already, a tropical depression. 92L is now heading generally westward, with a more symmetrical, and better-aligned LLC, now located roughly near 24.5N 60W (different analysis are estimating its center at different locations, at this time).*
Invest 91L now appears that it could very well be on its way to becoming a surprisingly robust, late-season classic CV-type tropical cyclone. 90L is now located near 7.5N 49W*, and heading west-northwest, currently in the direction of the Windward Islands, and threatens to become a very heavy rain and wind producer over the next several days.
*Note: Satellite images available on the Internet are running behind. Check the time stamp when you check the images.
ps: For a really cool "inside-look" into how the has recently been assessing things, Dr. Jeff Masters has just spent some time hanging out with them overnight, and blogged about it this morning (LINK)
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tropicswatch
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91L should be showing up on Trinidad and Tobago radar soon http://metoffice.gov.tt/satellite_imagery/radar.aspx
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Mike V
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Mike:
Thanks for posting that link to Jeff's blog. It was interesting reading and helping in understanding the challenges that the goes through with the season.
Mike V
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Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma, Ian flood adventure.
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weathernet
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Shery?? Virginie?? Are you kidding me? LOL Just two more odd names I would have assumed unlikely to be tagged by a T.S., but perhaps not far off are we? Am particularly impressed with the overall appearance and size of 91L, and should the system really start to deepen some, than would certainly help its cause in gaining a little latitude and perhaps making it into the E. Caribb. Either way, our friends in the lower islands there are certainly in for some blustery weather either way. Had heard ( unofficially ) that a ship N.E. of the appearance center has been getting steady 35kt. winds. I have not heard/seen any west wind reports on the system's south side thus far. Was frankly surprised to see the BAMD model from 12Z today pretty much carry 91L nearly all the way to Jamaica.
Thanks for the radar links from the islands; will be interesting to watch the approach.
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JoshuaK
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91L is looking most impressive as of right now IMO, with cyclonic turning and decent convection evident. A little more convection and this thing could be a depression here fairly soon. 92L is looking impressive as well, but is having problems with dry air entrainment to its SE that is limiting convection on that side of the cyclone.
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danielw
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91 L has a rather healthy appearance this morning.
I haven't looked at the T numbers as of yet but there is a possibility that 91L could bypass TD status also. Based strictly on current satellite images.
Using the large Atlantic view 91L covers a very large area. The system is large enough to influence the weather along the Northern Coasts of South America and at the same time bring wind and rain to the Greater and Lesser Antilles, I estimated the system envelope to be 900 miles ( 15 degrees ) from north to south and nearly 1625 miles ( 25 degrees ) east to west. This includes the inflow/ feeder bands to the east.
Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 29 2010 07:54 AM)
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Bloodstar
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So far, if there is good news with 91L, it's that it remains a large sloppy system with a broad circulation. That will keep it from strengthening quickly, and hopefully not become a late season disaster.
Hurricane Hunters are in the air and, despite the broad circulation, I'd be shocked if they don't designate it a Tropical Storm.
Shary has managed to garner T numbers of 3.0/3.0 (which is pretty impressive considering the rather shallow convection. But the LLC looks healthy enough, it's just not in a very good environment to strengthen much. (and it has a wall heading towards it which should kick it out and transition it to soon enough.
90L winding down and looks to be toast unless something changes and soon.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
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U. Arizona PhD Student
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danielw
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So far it looks like 91L will become a numbered Tropical Depression shortly.
MissionNumber 01
Agency Air Force
Time 10/29 18:00:30Z
Lowest Extrapolated Surface Pressure 1002.9mb (~29.62 inHg)
Highest Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s Avg.) 33kts (~37.9mph)
Highest SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) SFC. Wind 37kts (~42.5mph)
courtesy of tropicalatlantic.com
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danielw
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE National Hurricane Center IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM SHARY...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. DATA
FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH
WINDS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE IS FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND
CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM
TOMAS AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD ALSO
THEN BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.
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Storm Hunter
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Time: 18:35:30Z
Coordinates: 10.9167N 56.7667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.2 mb (~ 28.86 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 190 meters (~ 623 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press: 998.6 mb (~ 29.49 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 133° at 4 knots (From the SE at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 23.6°C* (~ 74.5°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: 21 knots* (~ 24.1 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr* (~ 0.12 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Center area it appears.... Plus we have winds in all directions... so we have a low at surface! Appears a 40-45mph TS
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Oct 29 2010 03:01 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 19:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate ninth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 18:35:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 10°55'N 56°46'W (10.9167N 56.7667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 244 miles (393 km) to the SE (128°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NW (316°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 40kts (From the NE at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NW (313°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 307m (1,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 310m (1,017ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the northwest quadrant at 18:26:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SOME SPIRAL BANDING. SFC CENTER JUST SOUTHWEST
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Bloodstar
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The 998 is interesting, It looks like a rather low pressure reading for the wind speeds but I'm presuming that's because the pressure gradient is relatively shallow. Tomas is a big storm and you can see the pressures dropping and rising relatively slowly compared to other, smaller storms.
It makes sense. just an interesting detail.
Another point is that the Vortex message says the center is just a wee bit displaced, as such, it's probably hindering the windspeeds and development just a hair. Not enough to stop the system from strengthening by any means, just enough to keep it from already being a moderate tropical storm.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Storm Hunter
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Navy named it Tomas... So its official! 
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
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Last RECON report was roughly 88 miles NE of the last center location. Reporting Tropical Storm force winds at 860 feet flight level.
Time: 19:50:00Z
Coordinates: 11.6833N 55.7667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 976.6 mb (~ 28.84 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 263 meters (~ 863 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press: 1006.6 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 144° at 42 knots (From the SE at ~ 48.3 mph)
Air Temp: 21.8°C* (~ 71.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 43 knots (~ 49.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 12 mm/hr (~ 0.47 in/hr)
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Bloodstar
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Err, what I said about the winds not really ramping up quickly... I could be mistaken, in a bad way.
Peak Surface winds of 62KTs and 30 second average of 59.8KTs ??? Maybe a squall or something? Maybe, but there's a lot of 45 - 50KT winds in the next set of High Density Readings
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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cieldumort
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Quote:
Err, what I said about the winds not really ramping up quickly... I could be mistaken, in a bad way.
Peak Surface winds of 62KTs and 30 second average of 59.8KTs ??? Maybe a squall or something? Maybe, but there's a lot of 45 - 50KT winds in the next set of High Density Readings
Believe that the 62 knot (71.3 MPH) SFMR estimate, being a 10-second average, really does not perfectly equate with a 30-second average of 68.8MPH, even though it can. But streching this out to a 1-min average, being a touch conservative perhaps, and calling it 55-60MPH instead, does looks entirely believable based on both satellite and microwave imagery, however.
Tomas is actually a pretty well-defined tropical storm, and I suspect its large size overshadows its other many qualities. Most everyone generally expects newly-formed, large tropical cyclones to be slow to the party, but Tomas has internal and external kickers galore going for it right now -- and these may continue to work in the tropical cyclone's favor for several days to come, more or less.
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danielw
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WTNT31 KNHC 292036
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010
...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 57.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. LUCIA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND GRENADA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...GRENADA...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL WINDWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
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MikeC
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Now recording French Antilles radar for Tomas' approach.
Link is http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?96
I hopefully will get a chance to get back to talking storms shortly. Those in the path will want to watch it closely, and Haiti especially. Initial look at the situation seems like it likely will not get much further west than there.
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danielw
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New Thread up for TS Tomas. Please post there. Thanks.
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