MikeC
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5:00 PM EDT 3 June 2011 Update
Invest 94L, with a 20% chance for development within the next 48 hours, is now active as a broad area of low pressure south of Jamaica. At 03/18Z the system coordinates were listed as 16.1N 77.3W with a pressure of 1007MB. The system has shown some attempts at SLOW organization within the past 24 hours and is expected to remain quasi-stationary. The upper air environment should become slightly less hostile over the next couple of days. Heavy rains are likely over Jamaica, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, and possible over Puerto Rico and the southern Bahamas.
Invest 93L is now in the southwest Gulf of Mexico southeast of Brownsville, Texas with minimal convection. The system is moving to the west northwest and is not expected to develop.
ED
6:00 PM EDT 1 June 2011 Update
The system that crossed central Florida today (93L) has moved on off to the west, and is now entering the Gulf, there remains about a 20% chance for development, it is likely to continue its rapid west southwest movement, possibly all the way into southern Texas.
The area in the west Caribbean is still mostly disorganized, but has a 10% chance for development over the next 48 hours. It is not being tracked as an Invest area currently, and this system is not expected to develop due to shear and dry air in the area..
8:30 AM 1 June 2011 Update
The approach of the system off Florida is moving pretty quickly and parts of Florida should start seeing rain later today, it will likely move through central and north Florida bringing quite a bit of Rain, unfortunately parts south will not see much, if anything from it. It has a little under 10 hours to organize enough to become a tropical depression which there is a 30% chance to do so.
Most of the rain is southwest of the center.
Original Update
Today marks the first day of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. The United States has not had a hurricane landfall in nearly 1000 days (990 to be exact, and it was Hurricane Ike in 2008 near Galveston).
Other Tropical storms have made landfall, and hurricanes have hit outside the United States, some with great damage, and this year we have another shot to dodge the bullet. Only 4 other times has there been this long of a lull between actual hurricane landfalls in the US:
11/2/1861 - 9/13/1865 = 1,412 days (the record)
9/30/1929 - 8/14/1932 = 1,050 days (4th place)
8/10/1980 - 8/18/1983 = 1,104 days (2nd place)
10/16/1999 - 10/3/2002 = 1,083 days (3rd place)
Beating the old record of no landfalls would require the United States being missed until August 2012. Unfortunately, since this is nearing the longest span of time without a hurricane landfall in the US, therefore the odds are strongly in favor of a hit this year.
This brings a few problems, mainly the inexperience of many new coastal residents, and apathy toward preparations. In slow economic conditions people tend to be less likely to bother with preparations, but this year it is extremely important to be hurricane prepared.
Have a plan, at the very least. Know if you are in an evacuation area, and when to leave (and more importantly when not to).
Have some supplies ready if you are in an area that may see hurricanes, and stay informed. Hype is still a large problem with media and storms, and this site still takes the point of view that hurricanes are rare events and that hype is counterproductive, smart monitoring of the basin is more useful.
With the proliferation of social media sites, it's easier for information (and misinformation) to get out. Hype can exist there too. I dislike hurricanes, but still want to learn as much about them as possible. Here you will find discussion and data geared to what is going on, and not toward sensational reporting of the situation.
Earlier this year, there have been several tornado outbreaks that have been devastating, it's much harder to prepare for that event, but hurricanes you can see coming a few days out and there is no excuse not to be prepared.
The National Hurricane Center has been and still is the best source for accurate information, this site is a supplement to it from another point of view. There are plenty of other resources on the internet and elsewhere that we recommend looking at as well, but smartly.
Confirm anything you read or see in multiple places when trying to decide on a plan of action for any particular storm. When a storm gets very close internet sites like this one become much less important than local sources for information.
Also if something does hit and you are ok, take advantage of social sites to let people know the status of yourself and area so that word can spread since local communications can be strained. (Note if you can't get a call out on strained networks, try to use text or data!)
Statistical odds make 2011 a bit more dangerous than the last few years, so it is important to be vigilant. This site will open up some new features during the season that will be discussed later. The newest is the mobile website. (Just use a phone browser to go to http://flhurricane.com )
For Florida, the last Major landfall was in 2005, and another interesting note, the last time that South Florida (and the east coast of Central Florida) had such an extremely dry May was in 2004 (and 1992 before that).
The list of names for this year is , Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney.
For the first two months of the Hurricane season, it is generally slow. Any development usually happens in the Western Caribbean and even more rarely outside of that. Generally toward the second half of July it starts to heat up and things get really going mid August through mid October.
Right now there is an "Invest" area off the coast of Florida, moving generally southwestward. This area, known as 93L, is very weak, and most of the rain and satellite visible convection is southwest of the center, and shear won't be kind to it. However, it does have a surface low, and the convection will probably make a rainy day for Florida/Georgia Later Today and Tomorrow. The current track takes it right through Central Florida.
Elsewhere, there is a disturbed area in the western Caribbean being highly affected by wind-shear. This system has a small chance to developer later in the week, but odds are not in favor of this. If it did it would stay south of the United States and mostly affect the Western/Central Caribbean with very heavy rainfall.
Mark Sudduth over at HurricaneTrack.com is doing a broadcast for the Start of the season, and as in many years prior, Jim Williams at Hurricane City will be doing an 8PM broadcast tonight for the season kickoff.
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The approach of the system off Florida is moving pretty quickly and parts of Florida should start seeing rain later today, it will likely move through central and north Florida bringing quite a bit of Rain, unfortunately parts south will not see much, if anything from it. It has a little under 10 hours to organize enough to become a tropical depression which there is a 30% chance to do so.
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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
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Mike, anyone else out there think this low could move west and help bring some rain to La. or will the peninsula weaken it too much?
We are in a drought here despite record river levels. We have more water than we can handle; yet it is in the wrong places.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I think that the storm will help give some much needed rain. But that's about it. Melbourne has updated their forecast to reflect some rainfall. But the forward speed of the system should limit the total rainfall amounts.
System is currently approaching Cape Canaveral and should be across the Peninsula in 6 to8 hours. Using current speed of 21 mph.
If the system were to travel just south of the 29 degree line it would bring some needed rain to coastal areas in five states. FL, AL, MS, LA and TX.
I don't think the southern areas of LA can handle much rain due to the MS River flood waters. But there are some people in that area that need the rain.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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It is cranking up some decent rain banding patterns over east central Florida as I type this. Still no mention in the local forcast. There is a special marine warning out for the east coast from the Cape to just north of Daytona Beach. Going to be an interesting afternoon considering that this system has been a footnote on the local weather. Good thing I brought my umbrella to work....
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Well that popped up out of no where and on Day 1 no less. Seems like they got the Space Shuttle back just in time. We really need the rain in FL, so I see this as a good thing. Love the new "HypeScale" http://flhurricane.com/wiki/HypeScale that should be interesting to watch as it raises and falls during the season. Or if you watch WSVN 7 Fox here in S FL wonder why its always pegged at 10  Hope everyone stays safe this season.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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Are there any tropical systems in the last few years, that have taken a path similar to 93L and reorganized in the gulf. It seems like there was at least one between 2007 and now, but I can't remember. 
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Alex in 2004, formed off of the NC Coast and moved northeast (opposite of 93L), and Andrea in 2007.
Andrea formed in the same area as Alex and 93L moved SE to just east of Cape Canaveral before turning and heading out into the Atlantic Ocean.
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Tracks for 93L_2011
Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 01 2011 12:40 PM)
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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Thanks. I think it may have been TS Andrea that I was remembering. I am looking at the vis. satellite loop, and 93L still looks fairly organized for just a tropical disturbance. I think it may hold together (at least somewhat) when it enters the GOM this evening. I have seen weirder things happen before. 
BTW, Recon will fly into 93L tomorrow at 1800z (1:00 P.M. CDT), if necessary.
UPDATE: Actually, I was thinking of Tropical Depression 5 of 2010. It never did become a system. It was on the verge of becoming a tropical storm but never made it before moving inland. I remember that the only had it tagged with a 20% chance of development, but within 12 hours, they raised it to like 80%. (OK. Now I can sleep tonight.  )
Edited by WesnWylie (Wed Jun 01 2011 04:01 PM)
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WesnWylie
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93L is really flaring up this afternoon. I have looked at recent buoy data, and it looks like pressure is dropping across Western Florida and the far eastern GOM. I think the center of 93L is heading into the water again. With shear remaining low, do you think 93L could organize into a depression once fully in the gulf? It seems like it is already regenerating, in my opinion.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Tampa radar seems to be showing a hint of cyclonic rotation just about due West of Clearwater, but it doesn't seem to be reflected at the surface (wind direction is from the North at my house here in Pinellas County). Convection has flared up over the eastern gulf waters in the last hour or so. This seems to be a pretty robust little system. We'll see if any more development occurs over night.
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Michael
PWS
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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SST in the northern Gulf is about 27C, but that is adequate since this system is more of a subtropical event. Windshear in the northern GOM is quite light so upper air conditions are favorable. currently gives the feature a 20% chance for development and that probability could increase tomorrow and Friday.
ED
UPDATE 02/12AM: 93L is starting to encounter increasing shear - its really scooting along. The shear and a drier environment should keep this little system well in check.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jun 02 2011 12:02 AM)
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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93L has a nicely defined circulation but no storm activity. The area in the Caribbean has about the opposite problem, plenty of storm activity with virtually no nicely defined circulation. In addition, is there cyclonic turning that I see within a cluster of storms about to emerge from South Carolina into the Atlantic?
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Change from the 10 AM EDT edition today..... That flight was for June 5th.
So they bumped the flight up a day. It now departs at 1230 PM EDT Saturday.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
0445 PM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-003 AMENDMENT
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)..........ADDED:
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 04/1630Z
D. 16.0N 78.0W
E. 04/2000Z TO 04/2315Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK............CHANGED:
BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.
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