danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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It's a big IF at this point. The Long Range is forecasting a large area of rain to develop in the GOM in the next 7 to 10 days.
The main difference is in which model run you choose to view. changes every 6 hours, the changes can be subtle or large. Earlier, yesterday's model, indicated a low pressure system developing in the 7- 10 day period. Moving from the BOC along the whole TX Coast toward Louisiana. The low then appeared to have upper level support at the 300mb level with a weak High overhead.
Low meandered for 36-48 hours over coastal Louisiana before moving NE.
Today's models, so far, have moved the developing Low more to the east. Favoring the Florida Panhandle and Upper Peninsula with rainfall.
More to come in the days ahead. The development is in question due to the amount of time involved. But stranger things have happened.
And nearly everyone in the Deep South needs rain.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 15 2011 04:11 PM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The is forecasting a brief end to the Florida drought. Or at least a break from it.
Below are the current 5 Day, 10 Day and 15 Day totals rainfall forecasts. Cumulative rainfall, that is.
Looks like July 4th might be a bit damp. Less fire danger though!
5 DAY
10 DAY
15 DAY
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Checking various models it looks like north Florida should see a start to the rainy season on Thursday and the Florida peninsula on Friday. I think that I read somewhere that this is now the latest timeframe for the start of thunderstorm season in central Florida.
ED
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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It is VERY late although it depends on your definition of 'rainy season'. We have had rains in the area off and on for the past 2 weeks, but they have been much more scattered and isolated than would be normal for this point in the summer, thus the 'delayed' rainy season. Today there were some pretty solid storms around and if you were under one, and inch was very possible, but if you missed them, it was a scorcher (a 100 degree F temperature reading north of Tampa today...very unusual). We had thunder and wind here twice and only received sprinkles. Bring on the rain (even on Friday when we plan on a beach day)!!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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ShanaTX
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Loc: Texas
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Glad y'all are getting rain!
I think we totally missed out on our usual 'rainy season'. We had a dry fall, dry winter and very dry spring.
We got a bit over an inch of rain night before last and it was very welcome! The temps have dropped 10 degrees (down to 95 and humid) for the next few days then back to the frying pan.
July is normally dry here and it looks to be dry this year too and unless we get something tropical we may not get rain till August.
No fireworks for us this year!
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Portions of Texas eastward to much of the southeast have been and continue to be under extreme heat and drought conditions this past Spring. Except for isolated showers, most of Florida still remains quite dry although our chances for rain should be on the rise over the next week. With regard to the use of fireworks and the potential for wildfires, you make an important observation. In Florida, 29 Counties now ban open fires and 22 of them now have a temporary ban on the use of fireworks as the Independence Day holiday approaches. In central and east central Florida those counties include Alachua, Brevard, Marion, Osceola, Polk and Volusia.
ED
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ShanaTX
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Loc: Texas
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Here all the counties surrounding us have burn bans. No fireworks. Like no personal fireworks at all and most of the municipal fireworks shows have been cancelled too.
The only outdoor grills allowed are the propane/gas ones. No wood, no charcoal grills.
We've had days where it's so dry that they have told people to avoid mowing.
The drought goes from Arizona to Florida and Florida up to Virginia.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
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Lamar-Plant City
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Storms rumbling around central Florida late tonight. Odd that this is the 3rd straight evening where heavy rain has moved to within several miles of my house, then washed out giving us a mere sprinkle, then reforming a more formidable line past us. Very frustrating to hear the thunder and drive through heavy rain to a bone dry neighborhood. But then again, that is Florida in the summer. Hopefully Friday and Saturday will bring more widespread amounts to the area!!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Got our first heavy rain last evening between 9 and 11 PM here in mid-Pinellas. A little over 1-1/2 inch at my house. I hope there will be more in the coming days and weeks. Really need this.
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Michael
PWS
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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I knew you did Michael as we were at Ft Desoto until sunset and it rained all the way out of Pinellas county! We had 2 inches in the rain gauge in Plant City when we got home. Now we have had one good shower today and more thunder rumbling in the distance. MUCH needed!! I just hope this is the pattern for a while now and it doesn't just dry up again for a couple of weeks!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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WesnWylie
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Well, it's a good thing TS did not have an extra 12 hours or so in the Gulf of Mexico. She could have easily become a hurricane if given some more time. At least Deep South Texas will see some rain from . Like the rest of Texas, they are dealing with severe drought down there.
(This is a better place for these and it helps to keep the Main Page on-topic.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jun 30 2011 03:28 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Well, it's a good thing TS did not have an extra 12 hours or so in the Gulf of Mexico. She could have easily become a hurricane if given some more time. At least Deep South Texas will see some rain from . Like the rest of Texas, they are dealing with severe drought down there.
It would be nice if some of that moisture could move toward Arizona and New Mexico to help douse those fires.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jun 30 2011 03:29 PM)
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ShanaTX
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Loc: Texas
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Quote:
Quote:
Well, it's a good thing TS did not have an extra 12 hours or so in the Gulf of Mexico. She could have easily become a hurricane if given some more time. At least Deep South Texas will see some rain from . Like the rest of Texas, they are dealing with severe drought down there.
It would be nice if some of that moisture could move toward Arizona and New Mexico to help douse those fires.
I don't remember an Atlantic system that managed to make it all the way to NM never mind AZ - a Pacific system would though.
Trees here are dying because of the drought.
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