Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
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Recon just finally found some 10-15 mph west wind on the south side of the surface vort, so I suppose they could upgrade if they want. The convective organization is still lousy, though.
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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I'm not quite sure what triggered our system to flag a pending advisory, it may actually be because of the recon, but I'll have to track it down, either way with the recon data it's fairly likely to happen any moment.
edit: I reset it manually for now.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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It looks like they have indeed closed off a Center.
It's just offshore of the islands of Martinique and Dominica.
Last hour observations from the islands.
Map courtesy of NWS San Juan,PR
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 01 2011 05:12 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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The LLC looks like it will go directly over Dominica...so date from there should be helpful in establishing a wind shift
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Using the 01/18Z position for the center and latest visual images, the center of Invest 91L is, at 01/21Z, passing between the islands of Dominica to the south and Guadeloupe to the north. At 01/21Z, the winds at Melville Hall Airport on Dominica were out of the east at 23 knots. The other reported light westerly winds on some of the other islands are a result of local terrain effects. The recon did find a couple of westerly winds of 5 to 7 knots, but nowhere near enough to justify an upgrade of this system to tropical cyclone status - especially when measured against the strong easterly winds on Dominica.
Realistically the system looks horrible compared to yesterday (and it looked bad then). If you had taken your first look at this system just now, would you have assigned it an 80% chance for near-term 48hr development? Even at 80% (a number that has been going down) there is still a 20% chance that it will not develop soon. Based on the disorganization of the system the development chances still seem too high and TC status is not likely tonight.
The LLCC is still moving rapidly west northwestward at 18 knots. There is still a zone of westerly shear and dry air between 18N-23N that will hamper development. It still has a chance to become a named system, but probably not an overly strong one.
ED
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MikeC
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If you want to compare the radar with 91L to a category 1 hurricane, here is a radar recording of Hurricane Tomas from last year around the same area 91L is now.
Then look at the radar recording from 91L that is still ongoing.
Tomas went south of St. Lucia, 91L's center is just north of Dominica.
The wave is still pretty disorganized which makes it all more likely for it to go west for now
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Advisory alert triggered again, this time from best track so it seems more legitimate, most likely straight to Emily.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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AL0511 2011080118?? 15.1N/ 60.5W 1006mb EMILY
Best track and others at 2224Z
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
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Loc: St.Pete,FL
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It starting to look a little better on satellite with storms trying to build/wrap into the center, also last frame or two it looks better on French Antilles Radar . I would suspect an depression/possibly weak TS soon. Also noted that the navy site is listing it as 5L on their site..
Edited by Joeyfl (Mon Aug 01 2011 07:08 PM)
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
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Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Looks like we could have Emily shortly, 8pm? If what Iam hearing from others is correct.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Tropical Storm Emily was named a few minutes ago.
New thread is up please post there....
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat....;gonew=1#UNREAD
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