Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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New vortex - pressure down another MB to 993. Fix is ALMOST due west of the previous fix (just slightly north of due west). Estimated SFC winds: 76mph. We could soon have the season's first hurricane, if the confirms the recon info.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Irene has definitly slowed down alot looking almost 10mph maybe.I would usually associate that with a turn coming up but the ridge is there maybe just consolidation.
Hugh that 2mins N and 18mins W basically due W
Edited by javlin (Sun Aug 21 2011 10:31 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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In the last several frames of the radar loop, an eye definately appears to be forming - and Irene definately appears to be hitting its breaks. It's going to be a LONG night for Puerto Rico.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,533m (5,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
8 degree Celsius spread between the Outside Eye temp and the Inside Eye temp. Vacuum is working better.
5 degree Celsius dewpoint spread inside the Eye/ Center. This means the air inside is drying out. Which is a precursor to the Eye clearing out vertically. The vacuum is working, but it is still not at 100 percent efficiency.
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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They went closer to the TVCN and consensus with the 11PM track, but only marginally so. Irene may briefly hit hurricane force before landfall in Puerto Rico (at 70mph it's very close now). After that the official forecast takes it along the northern coast of the Dominican republic, and later through the Bahamas, with landfall near Cape Canaveral. The cone still is fairly uncertain at that range and may extend eastward or slightly westward. With a lean toward the east right now. Those in the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina should continue to monitor Irene.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Notice the green semicircle. That's the highest cloud tops and they appear to be encircling the . Or just inside the edge of the .
A Near Perfect match of the Highest Cloud Tops to the strongest convection.
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 21 2011 11:26 PM)
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Just a note: Puerto Rico's radar is out, not sure if it will be for the night or not. The island will probably have widespread power outages.
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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Cape canaveral
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in the water vaper imagery 03:45 UTC, you can see what looks like a blue comet, is that the eyewall forming?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
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Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Seeing some sustained winds near 60 mph with higher gusts in islands just east of eastern Puerto Rico. Irene looks to be quite close to hurricane strength the higher elevations will likely see hurricane winds quite easily. Models not huge change now going right along FL east coast as of 0z run slightly left from previous runs.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Irene is upgraded to Hurricane. is now saying that the storm will only graze Hispanola, and minimal land interaction will result in unlikely disruption of the storm. They are calling for the storm to become major at some point:
"GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE AND HWRF MODELS ARE FORECASTING."
(NHC Forecast Discussion)
Also, the 5:50 special update from :
"PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED ON PUERTO RICO...AND MORE THAN 800 THOUSAND HOMES ARE WITHOUT POWER ON THE ISLAND.
ALSO...FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES WINDS TO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE NOW OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO."
IR shows the storm slightly disrupted by Puerto Rico but still with overall good appearance, but with it reentering favorable water conditions, it should recover fairly quickly.
Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Aug 22 2011 06:56 AM)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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06 runs about the same with the back a little more west and the gdfl has shifted back West a lot more then the 00 run.
The thing about the is over the years i have seen this from the model where it was way out of line with the and other models but after awhile made its way back to the others.Those in Floirda and up the us easy coast should keep close watch as the track keep shifting more and more east
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CFHC
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Loc: East Central Florida
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New Thread up.
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