(UPDATE: Upwards of 1 Million people have been ordered to evacuate coastal Nagoya on the Island of Honshu.
One Million Ordered to Evacuate
... more coming soon ...)
Earthquake, Tsunami, and now Typhoon.
Japan just can't seem to get a break this year. If the situation after last March's devastating earthquake & tsunami weren't already bad enough, Japan's Honshu Island will be raked by a strong, fast moving typhoon.
Typhoon 'Roke', which had meandered near Okinawa for a few days as a weak tropical storm (see previous post, this forum) has since explosively developed into a Major Typhoon (Thanks to vpbob21 for also posting!), and has followed it's predicted recurvature track and is now drawing a bead for a potentially destructive landfall across Japan, before returning out to sea again.
A Recent Visible Animated Satellite Loop of Typhoon 'Roke' (mid afternoon there, as I write) shows the cyclone accelerating in it's recurvature, while retaining it's very well developed, tight, compact eyewall, evidenced best in microwave imaging, as it races towards imminent landfall on Japan's Honshu Prefecture, just east of the coastal city of Nagoya.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued a truly excellent "Prognostic Reasoning" discussion regarding ongoing and forecasted developments regarding 'Roke's progress towards landfall and track over Japan and beyond.
I will let their discussion speak largely for itself ...
"ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ('ROKE') ROARING PAST THE SOUTHERN TIP OF WAKAYAMA PREFECTURE ON A STEADY NORTHEASTERLY BEARING.
DESPITE THE DOWNWARD INTENSITY TREND, (SATELLITE IMAGING) REVEALS A STRONG EYEWALL WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CORE (AND) THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A MICROWAVE EYE AS WELL AS THICK CONCENTRIC BANDING AROUND THE EYEWALL.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS PRONOUNCED STRETCHING IN THE UPPER CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, INDICATING ('ROKE') IS ENTERING A ZONE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THE BENEFITS OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY BE MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR."
... Post Landfall Forecast Reasoning ...
"AT THE SAME TIME IT ENCOUNTERS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL HONSHU, ('ROKE') WILL MOVE INTO A ZONE OF SHARPLY INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER BOUNDARY LAYER IMPEDIMENTS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THOSE THREE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO EXERT A TREMENDOUS WEAKENING FORCE ON ('ROKE'), BUT ITS RAPID MOVEMENT THROUGH THE SHIZUOKA PREFECTURE AND THEN THE KANTO PLAIN WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY TO REGENERATE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AFTER IT MOVES OFF-SHORE OF THE TOHOKU REGION."
(Photo Courtesy of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Pearl Harbor, Hawaii)
Above is a "Multi-Spectral Image" (or MSI, a satellite imaging tool that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, uses as part of their diagnostic and forecasting suite of tools) of Typhoon 'Roke' as it progresses towards Japan.
And clearly shown in this passive microwave imaging photo is a rather potent looking, tight, compact, "pinhole eyewall" (partially opened to the SW?), surrounded by very intense bands of tight, wrapping convection polewards, in it's direction of travel.
=========================================
... Update ...
Although dropping below 100 Kts (down to 90 Kts), Typhoon 'Roke' remains a potent and very well organized tropical cyclone upon it's final approach towards landfall.
Compared with the previous Microwave Satellite Image, you can clearly notice that the tight, compact eyewall remains intact, and is now very near to making landfall just east of the coastal city of Nagoya.
=========================================
... Update ...
Typhoon 'Roke' has made landfall as a 65 Kt. storm and the 'Eye of the Cyclone' is now inland, barreling towards Tokyo, as shown in this recent visible animated satellite loop.
...
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"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina
Edited by CoconutCandy (Wed Sep 21 2011 03:54 AM)
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