Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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...which is normal for this time of year. A well-formed mid-level swirl is located at 31.5N 37W at 26/15Z moving to the southwest. No deep convection is evident. Although wind shear is light in the area it does increase to the south and the system is over SSTs of 24C.
ED
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NHC has posted a 10% chance of cyclone formation with the system located a few hundred miles north of the Northern Leeward Islands.
Low level swirl seen on the western side of the system and clouds over the far eastern half.
Of note is a tight cyclonic gyre in the Western Caribbean.
Both systems can be seen here:
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/images/high_resolution/900_20111129-eastcoast.jpg
Link Courtesy of Stu Ostro,
Edited by danielw (Tue Nov 29 2011 08:38 PM)
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srquirrely
Weather Watcher
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Loc: SARASOTA
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I bet if it was JUNE 4 instead of FEB 4 today we'd all be on about that 'feature' in the W Caribbean!
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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I was just looking at that on the Sat as well...thought the same thing and figured I would check in here. Nice convection near western Cuba. This and the approaching cold front are supposed to bring us some rain tomorrow which will be nice. An interesting weather weekend. Does anyone here notice that the water in the central GOM is in the mid 70s this first week in Feb?
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 392
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Quote:
I bet if it was JUNE 4 instead of FEB 4 today we'd all be on about that 'feature' in the W Caribbean!
Looks like we called this one (see the other threads). With all of the warmth out there this isn't too surprising. Hope it brings a solid rain event to us!!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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A few days ago my curiosity got the best of me and I started looking at the current Gulf of Mexico Sea Surface Temperatures. While the GOM SSTs are only part of the fuel chain during Hurricane Season I like to glance at them now and then prior to the Official season starting.
I was somewhat startled when I looked at the 7 day average SST for April 10th,2012.
Since 1999, the current 7 day average image is the lowest/ coolest GOM SST image. With all of the weather Records being broken over the last 4 weeks I expected to find warm SSTs in the Gulf.
They aren't there.
See the attachment above for a contact sheet of the images. 1999 is the first image through to 2012.
The image with the black square is the 24th of August,2005. Just prior to . Basically the warmest the GOM has been in the last 10 years or so.
In viewing the full size images I see that the Temperature scale is NOT the same in all of the images. This year in particular it is 4 degrees Celcius cooler than last year. Apparently they are using a sliding scale... for some reason.
Images may be viewed at http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/index.html
April12,2012 7 day average SST_scale end at 32 C
April 12,2010 7 day average SST_scale end at 28 C
April 10,2005 7 day average SST_scale end at 30 C
Edited by danielw (Fri Apr 13 2012 12:59 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Sorry about the length of the post. Forecaster is very good with the week ahead forecast. Starting Wednesday Morning.
Models can be inaccurate!
Bold emphasis added~danielw
Posted one hour after transmission:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
203 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012
VALID 12Z WED MAY 16 2012 - 12Z SUN MAY 20 2012
...COASTAL LOW/NOR'EASTER POSSIBLE NEAR THE CAROLINAS NEXT
WEEKEND...
OUTSIDE THE 00Z CANADIAN GUIDANCE BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING...THE
AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN. TROUGHING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE RIDGING EXISTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND A DEEP CYCLONE MOVES OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SINCE THERE WAS SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT...USED A
40/30/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z /00Z THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z AND
00Z SOLUTIONS. THIS PREFERENCE LED TO GOOD CONTINUITY.
THE DEEP CYCLONE/NOR'EASTER FORECAST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HYBRID SYSTEM AS IT HOVERS
NEAR THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. EVEN IF IT REMAINS COLD CORE...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
LEAD TO LOWERED PRESSURES/DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE BASE OF ITS UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...NORMALLY A PROBLEM WHEN A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE
FORMS BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST AND BERMUDA. HEAVY COMMA HEAD
RAINS/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
CAROLINA/GEORGIA/NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IF THE SYSTEM TAKES A
MORE COASTAL ROUTE AS SEEN IN THE 00Z . IF IT DEVELOPS AND
STAYS FARTHER OFFSHORE...IT COULD EVOLVE INTO A WILDFIRE CONCERN
FOR SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA WHICH ARE WITHIN THEIR
ANNUAL SPRING DROUGHT...SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION SEEN DURING
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREAS DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY MAY 2007. THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN BY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS
IS DIFFERENT THAN THAT OF 2007 EVOLUTION OF ANDREAS...BUT THE
FINAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANDREAS INTO ITS SUBTROPICAL FORM IS SIMILAR
IN THE MID LEVEL H500 FLOW OF THIS EVENT.
VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES OF /ECMWF/CMC CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WESTERN CARRIBEAN AND OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALREADY HAS A SYSTEM READY TO GO AND WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SEE DISCUSSIONS. THE ATLANTIC SIDE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD ALSO HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH A
LARGE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING THE OPERATIONAL
RUN WITH THE SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS TIME
FRAME LONGER TERM RUNS OF HAVE BEEN PRODUCING TROPICAL SYSTEMS
IN THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN WITH AN EXIT NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD.
THIS IS ANOTHER INDICATION THAT THE MODELS RECOGNIZE FUTURE
FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONS OR CYCLOGENESIS.
UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE
WITH AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD LOW SOUTHWARD OF
THE EARLY PRELIMS OFF THE SC COAST AS A BETTER FIT TO LAGGED
AVERAGE FORECASTS OF AND .
AFTernooN FINALS REMAIN THE SAME. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR EARLIER PROGS
BY HIRES UKMET OVER AND ADJACENT WATERS. SOUTHEAST SEABOARD
LOW FORECAST SE OF CAPE FEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z DAYS
6-7.
ROTH/ROSENSTEIN
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I believe this forecast is related to the spurious system that is forecast for later this week in the NW Caribbean..
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
234 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012
NOTE: THERE IS A RISK OF HEAVY RAINS TO AFFECT EASTERN
YUCATAN/BELIZE/EASTERN GUATEMALA AND NORTHERN-EASTERN HONDURAS
DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AND PEAKING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS IS
A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
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