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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell
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GlenJohnson
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El Nino, La Nina?
      #93009 - Fri Jul 06 2012 08:06 PM

Heard the pro's say were going into a new El Nino, so I tried to do more research. One web site said El Nino means less hurricanes because of high winds overhead. Another site says it doesn't really matter. We'll have hot Atlantic seas so we'll likely have more hurricanes. Another site said 2009 the NHC dropped the hurricane prediction because of El Niino. What are the thoughts on the pro's here?

(A good post, but it probably fits better in this Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jul 06 2012 11:29 PM)

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


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Re: El Nino, La Nina? [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #93011 - Fri Jul 06 2012 09:29 PM

I'm not a pro but have heard (and seen) for years that El Nino usually keeps the NUMBER of storms down depending on when it develops. I thought I had heard that the next El Nino would hold off until after the season was over. Must be starting early. Doesn't mean we won't have storms but a lot of them turn north before getting near the U.S. so it SEEMS like there are less storms as well. I'm sure the 'old pros' will fill in more than that.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: El Nino, La Nina? [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #93012 - Fri Jul 06 2012 11:43 PM

Here is a link to the latest NCEP discussion issued on July 5th:

NCEP ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

It suggests that we are heading for an El Nino in the July-Sept timeframe (probability is about 61%). This would tend to cut off later season storms due to increasing windshear across the Atlantic basin. Some forecasters have speculated that if El Nino does indeed materialize in the next month or so, the total number of storms for the season would likely end up around 11.
ED

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