Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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A tropical wave near 14N 43W at 28/04Z is slowly developing some convection and shows signs of cyclonic turning. The weak low is just south of an area of moderate to strong westerly shear and the wave should move west of the shear zone by Monday.
Another strong wave is about to exit the west African coast. Just a couple of areas to watch in a basin that otherwise remains on the quiet side.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 03 2012 03:48 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Tropical wave with a weak circulation evident near 14N 62.5W at 30/04Z continues to move westward. Convection has increased and is displaced by windshear to the east northeast of the low. There is a small chance for some additional slow development.
Another larger wave near 10N 35W at 30/04Z has a better potential for additional development over the next few days.
ED
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cieldumort
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The larger wave, with a weak low center pegged near 9.7N 34.3W, has been tagged Invest 99L. Meanwhile, the weaker weave located near 14N 62.5W continues the process of consolidating some deeper convection as it crosses the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions suggest both have some chance for gradual development. On one hand, wind shear appears light to moderate over 99L, while moderate to high over the wave now crossing the Antilles. However, the closer wave (14N 62.5W) could continue to get a bit of a boost from the higher shear, and "flame-up" as it enters progressively warmer waters in the Caribbean, depending on track.
Still very low odds for the immediate future: gives 99L a 20% probability of developing within 48 hours, and makes no mention at all of the closer wave, although if convection persists, it also may get a mention, perhaps later this morning.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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First visible light satellite images indicate a rather large area of clouds involved in the system. Some call it a pouch.
Some Saharan dust is visible in the NE sectors of the cloud mass.
Prior to sunrise several areas of lightning were visible in the NW through SW sectors.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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99L continues to develop. is now giving it a 50% chance at becoming a Named Tropical Cyclone. As of the 8 PM EDT Advisory tonight.
I did some research on storms passing through, or originating in the 10.0N / 45.0W area and the list follows.
Using 10.0N/ 45.0W as point with a 60nm radius.
TS Arthur: July 22 to July 27,1990
Cat 4 Hurricane Flora: September 26, to October 13,1963
Unnamed TD: June 11 to June 11,2003 dissipated
Cat 5 : September 4 to September 24, 2004 (passed thru 10N/ 45W as Cat 1 Hurricane.)Only system to achieve Hurricane status before passing through the area.
Unnamed Cat 3: September 6 to September 17, 1921
Cat 1 Fifi: September 4 to September 12,1958
Cat 4 Lili: September 21 to October 4,2002
TS Bret: August 4 to August 11,1993
TS Alma: August 12 to August 15, 1974
Cat 1 Gertrude: September 27 to October 4, 1974
TS Christine: August 25 to September 4, 1973
Cat 5 Emily: July 11 to July 21,2005
Only two of the above systems made landfall in the U.S.
Ivan made initial landfall on the Florida Panhandle and recurved back several days later to make a second landfall in SE Texas. Lili's landfall was on the Central Louisiana Coast.
http://csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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So far the models are not at all very bullish with this system - most of them only show limited development and some of them maintain a weak system that moves generally westward brushing the north coast of South America and moving westward toward Nicaragua. The strength and significant western extension of the Atlantic ridge gives good validity to that westward track. Westerly windshear should limit development until Friday.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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A tropical wave that has been moving to the northwest from the Greater Antilles for the past few days is now located off the southeast Florida coast and has been designated as Invest 91L. At 03/18Z the system was located at 25.1N 78.9W and it was moving to the northwest at 10 knots. Convective activity has increased but given the proximity to land the gives the system a low (20%) chance for additional development - which seems realistic. Certainly can expect increased rainfall activity over the Florida peninsula this weekend.
ED
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Random Chaos
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Loc: Maryland
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We also have 91L over the Bahamas. 20% chance of development as of 5pm.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 04 2012 12:37 AM)
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ftlaudbob
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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91L just seemed to disappear.
(Post shifted to the correct thread.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 04 2012 07:19 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Its still there. The weak low drifted ashore between Titusville and Daytona Beach earlier today. Most of the heavy showers still remain offshore.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Invest 91L continues to drift northwest with rainfall currently confined to northeast Florida and southern Georgia. continues to monitor a remnant low located at 28.1N 78.9W at 05/1132Z - the second low that was generated by this disorganized tropical wave.
ED
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