cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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A convectively active surface trough which includes some of the remnant circulation of (former) Helene has become a little better defined over the extreme western Gulf of Mexico today. This feature has been tagged as Invest 95L.
95L is in a marginally favorable environment for further organization, currently centered roughly around 21.7N 98.1W. Movement is nearly stationary, or drifting on and offshore.
The estimated minimum central pressure within 95L is a relatively low 1005mb, and maximum sustained winds are running about 20 knots, but scatterometer measurements suggests that much higher gusts are occurring.
NHC currently gives this disturbance a 20% chance of becoming a numbered tropical cyclone within 48 hours.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Interesting swirl of clouds. Image servers appear to be down so I can't upload the sat / rads I have.
System is sitting between southerly flow from the Atlantic Ridge and northerly flow from the NE Mexico ridge. Prime location for a spin up. I saw a pressure of 1008 mb earlier near Veracruz,MX. Buoys in that region were just slightly above their lowest pressure when Helene was in the area. So the pressures are low to begin with.
Earlier long range Brownsville,TX NWS radar was showing an eye-like feature about 180 to 200 miles SSE of Brownsville,Tx
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 19 2012 09:43 PM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NOUS42 KNHC 191821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z ( 3pm EDT Monday-Fix Time)
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z (12:30pm EDT Monday-takeoff)
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z (2:30pm to 8pm EDT in system)
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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