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Although still very unlikely to develop or be very strong, there could be an area to watch in the in little more than a week out from energy currently associated with the systems in the East Pacific.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 607 (Milton), US Major: 607 (Milton), FL Any: 607 (Milton), FL Major: 607 (Milton)

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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Storm Forum

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cieldumort
Moderator

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Posts: 2671
Loc: Austin, Tx

Area of Interest: Northern Gulf (90L)
#93928 - Wed Sep 05 2012 03:02 AM

A fairly impressive low to mid level disturbance associated with some of the remnant vorticity left over from Hurricane Isaac (see image below) has drifted south from the mid-west, through Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi/Florida during the day Tuesday, and is now entering the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Below: Three Day Sequence of Lower-Level Vorticity

Image credit: UW-Madison SSEC/CIMSS. H/T: Stu Ostro

Pressures in this portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico have been falling with the approach of this area of disturbed weather, and are now down to around 1010mb. With shear in its immediate path presently running from a favorable 5, to not insurmountable 20 knots, and with very supportive sea surface temperatures, the only obvious detractor is that it is surrounded by dry air.

All in all, some development looks very possible.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master

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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida

Re: Area of Interest: Northern Gulf [Re: cieldumort]
#93929 - Wed Sep 05 2012 07:09 AM

It will be interesting to see what if any effect the low pressure system and Leslie will have on each other since Leslie is still almost stationary. The skew on the maps make the storms appear to be in very close proximity with the upper level whirley over the Bahamas, it is an interesting looking set up.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

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