Joeyfl
Weather Guru
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Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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90L to me looks better than it did yesterday even though it is still feeling some slight shear from the north northeast. of where a possible LLC is forming or is located (northeast of the convection). Still have not heard if recon is going out or is cancelled. No changes really to overall thinking with 90L hanging out in central Gulf for next 48hrs before making a bee line across FL late this weekend. I still say 50/50 right now with respect to it becoming tropical storm/depression in any event it looks to mainly enhance rainfall across FL as front drops into central FL possibly stalling out which seems reasonable as it is still early for cool frontal passage here. But if 90L is able to get its act together and ride front across FL it would help to push whatever is left of the front through the state. If this forms and thats a big IF I still see maybe moderate TS at best. Time will tell...
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
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Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
Edited by Joeyfl (Thu Sep 06 2012 02:01 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Very sheared system (even more than yesterday). Apparent weak LLC is near 28.2N; 88.3W with the convection removed well to the SW. If this system doesn't form independently from the approaching front, it will simply merge with that frontal trough and not become tropical at all. If anything forms here, it will be very weak.
Watch the Floater Loop for a better idea of what's going on.
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Michael
PWS
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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There is a vigorous LLC to the NE of the main convection. It shows up nicely on the visible SAT. It is also getting closer to the convection. If the shear subsides a bit it could become something, but not anything more than a weak TS. Will be interesting to see what happens at the D.Max later
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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It does not look healthy at all. The vortex is ragged and the shear has blown convection a considerable distance from that point. It may not survive, IMO.
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doug
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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The convection is even farther removed from the weak LLC this afternoon. The shear is tearing it apart, so I don't believe that there will be any tropical development of this at all now (unless there is a miraculous convective burst over the LLC  ). Even the 12Z model runs aren't developing it now instead, showing a very weak low on the front that is approaching the Gulf coast and Florida this weekend.
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Michael
PWS
Edited by MichaelA (Thu Sep 06 2012 06:38 PM)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 456
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Agreed. What I did observe earlier today was correct. The LLC was close to the NE quadrant of the convection but the convection has since been completley sheared off to the SW.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 456
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Looks like convection just tried to flare up directly to the south or SSE of the LLC but then got quickly sheared right off.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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The blob is looking less and less like a storm. Is the center of circulation still intact or has it disappeared too? This little blob made the national news last night and our local met says that we will see rainfall from it this weekend. It looks very weak . I wonder if the 40 per cent chance of development still stands.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Two scenarios; one, the system moves south and southwest out ahead of a narrow upper ridge axis that will be in place throughout the forecast period but I'm leaning on the second scenario and that's the arrival of major shortwave that will deepen the long wave trough along the eastern side of the United States dragging a cold front with it and bringing in some wonderful, wonderful dry weather for the a good part of the Southeastern US this upcoming weekend and whatever there is of this system being absorbed by this system. Leslie and Michael will be steered in due time by the approaching trough in the next couple of days.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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90l is a little streak in the Gulf this morning. We are supposed to get the cold front with the system attached to it. The 2:00am advisory does not expect it to become viable giving it a 10 per cent chance. I guess this is the last of Isaac.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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