Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 10/04Z, Invest 91L was located in the central Atlantic near 15N 35W and it was moving west at about 20 knots. Convection around the low center has increased on Sunday and additional slow development is possible over the next couple of days. Windshear is low, but dry air surrounds the system everywhere except to the south. SSTs are 28C. A west to west northwest movement should continue for a few days.
ED
(Title changed to reflect current storm status.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 15 2012 01:16 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 11/03Z, Invest 91L was located near 15.7N 42W. After a decline in convection on Monday, some increase is noted in the past few hours but the system is still somewhat disorganized. Movement continues to the west and once again the forward speed has increased to about 20 knots. The slower rate of organization should keep the system on a more west to west northwesterly track on Tuesday with projected track adjustments a little further to the west.
Windshear remains light, the dry air to the west has diminished a little and the SSTs along the track are still at 28C so additional development is still expected.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 11/12Z, Invest 91L was located at 16.0N 42.6W with winds of 30 knots, central pressure at 1006MB and a movement to the west at 9 knots. Although no significant changes are visible since yesterday, is again about to upgrade the system to a Tropical Depression. TD14 is approaching a col or weakness between two high pressure systems and the storm slowed down considerably last night. TD14 is another fairly large system that will be slow to develop and likely to remain at sea. SSTs are still at 28C.
ED
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Nadine, like so many others this year, is struggling with shear and dry air intrusion. The forecast track is a good one as far as I can tell - high pressure to the NE and an old frontal trough to its NW - so, right up the middle. Potential strength? Maybe Nadine will make minimal hurricane strength before shear gets the better of it.
(Just a title update to reflect current storm status.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 13 2012 02:18 PM)
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srquirrely
Weather Watcher
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Loc: SARASOTA
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... and then NOAA satellite images went offline ?!?!?
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It's looking like Nadine will be with us for another several days meandering near the Azores with a couple of the models turning it SW and West at days 4 and 5. even has low confidence that Nadine will become post/extratropical by day 5. At any rate, the Azores are in for a prolonged period of nasty weather.
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Michael
PWS
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