MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Today marks the first day of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season, and many indicators show that this season will likely be an active one.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season lasts through November 30th. The peak of hurricane activity is typically between mid August and mid October. For the first two months of the Hurricane season, it is generally slow. Any development usually happens in the Western Caribbean and even more rarely outside of that. Generally toward the second half of July it starts to heat up and things get really going mid August through mid October.
Wild weather is already upon us outside of the Atlantic basin. Another round of violent tornadoes went through Oklahoma on the last day of May, and the tropical Atlantic starts the year with remnants of a record-setting eastern Pacific Hurricane, Barbara, hanging around in the Gulf of Mexico. Although the remnants of Barbara are not likely to reorganize, this does add to the moisture, vorticity, and instability in the area.
The current pattern suggests that a greater number of tropical storms and hurricanes may make it further west than what we have been getting accustomed to lately, a few names not withstanding, so remaining vigilant is extra important this year. Still, hurricanes are rather rare events, so over hyping them is something that flhurricane likes to avoid.
It is nearing the 8th year that Florida has gone without a direct hurricane landfall, the last one occurring in 2005, with Hurricane .
The last hurricane to hit the US in general was "Supestorm Sandy" just last year, and before that, Isaac, along the gulf coast. Florida's luck has been pretty good lately, maybe too good, so by statistics alone, odds are much higher this year that Florida may be hit by a hurricane.
This recent dry spell is in itself becoming dangerous. Many newer coastal residents are not experienced with tropical cyclones, and even old-timers are getting apathetic.
It is important to be hurricane prepared. Have a plan. Know if you are in an evacuation area, and know when to leave (and when not to!). Have some supplies ready if you are in an area that may see hurricanes, and stay informed.
Hype is still a large problem when it comes to the media and storms, and this site still takes the point of view that hurricanes are rare events and that hype is counterproductive. Smart monitoring of the basin is more useful.
With the proliferation of social media sites, it's easier for information, (and misinformation), to get out. The Internet is filled with hype. I dislike hurricanes, but still want to learn as much about them as possible. Here you will find discussion and data geared to what is really going on, and not toward sensational reporting of the situation.
Be prepared!
The National Hurricane Center is still the best source for accurate information. Think of Flhurricane as a sort of supplement to the . And there are plenty of other resources on the Internet and elsewhere that we frequently recommend looking at as well.
Confirm anything you read or see in multiple places when trying to decide on a plan of action for any particular storm, and when a storm gets very close, local sources, such as a dependable local news station with a reliable weather team, can become indispensable.
If a storm does not hit you, and you are ok, take advantage of social sites and texting (not phoning!) to let people know the status of yourself and your area, so that word can still spread, as telephone lines and cell towers often fail during natural disasters, or get completely overloaded.
The list of 2013 Hurricane Names is: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, and Wendy.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Looks like GOES-13 could be back up and running as early as the end of next week.
Quote:
GOES-13 recovery efforts continue as the imager and sounder are providing data for testing purposes ONL from 75 degrees West. GOES-13 is still in INR recovery, so imagery is not yet within specifications.
NESDIS will verify and validate the GOES-13 products and services over the next several days. The sounder however, will not be available once outgassing commences at approximately 0030 UTC on June 1, 2013 until outgassing concludes at approximately 0000 UTC on June 6, 2013. Outgassing will reduce noise and improve medium and short-wave sounder channel products. If products and services receive a positive review, the current planning is that they will be made available to users at the earliest on June 6, 2013.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013
edited~danielw
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SEVERAL AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ARE THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STARTING IN THE NW CORNER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 89W-98W
CONTINUING INTO LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING IN THE SW
GULF. A WEAK 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 19N94W.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 392
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Our local Met at Fox13 just posted this picture on Facebook of predicted rainfall amounts over Florida for the next 7 days. I hope you have your rain gear and/or ark all prepared. This from moisture streaming up from the south and that disturbed area over the Yucatan.
-------------------- If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
Edited by Lamar-Plant City (Sun Jun 02 2013 08:58 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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And we really do need the rain but, maybe, not all at once. Whatever develops (or not) will certainly mean a very wet week for peninsula Florida.
-------------------- Michael
PWS
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