Tropical Storm Andrea Forecast Lounge

In an interesting twist of the way weather can work, energies from former Hurricane Barbara, and the pulse which helped spawn her, have sort of split in two, with a new dominant feature, a broad low pressure area, being tracked as Invest 91L.

Invest 90L, which was the remnant circulation of former Hurricane Barbara, is actually still being followed, as "Barbara."

To keep things simple, and in perspective, in the image below you can see the now teensy "Barbara" (formerly 90L) inland, or barely offshore along the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and large Invest 91L (the feature of some more interest now) centered a hop and skip to her northeast, around the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

Above: Barbara's remnant circulation (left) & Invest 91L (right)

Models have been percolating somewhat for several days, developing a tropical low of varying intensity this week in the general vicinity of either Barbara or 91L, and tracking it off to the northeast, across Florida, and generally up along, or either side, of the Gulf Stream.

The region is climatologically favored for development this time of the year, and the ways both x-Barbara and 91L have each been attempting to become something more are following a familiar, and sometimes successful pattern.

So far, it would appear that owing to 91L's much larger cyclonic envelope, Barbara may get completely absorbed within the next day or two. In the near term, the little bit of additional convection Barbara keeps blowing up seems to be acting to moisten the area around 91L somewhat, and thereby giving 91L some small shield from all of the dry air that has been pouring into the northern and western Gulf of Mexico.

Because there is still so much dry air in the Gulf, working in tandem with a considerable area of unfavorable upper-level winds, any tropical cyclone development of 91L will most likely be slow to occur, at least in the near term, as has mentioned.

Regardless of further development, Invest 91L is and will continue to be a weather maker for Florida this week, increasing tropical weather related risks, as hours may turn to days of heavy rains with potentially strong winds and choppy waters.

Image credit: National Weather Service Tampa Bay

This is where to put mid to long range forecasts on 91L's potential for development, intensity, and forecast track. 91L-related longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Edited to reflect upgrade to named storm status.

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Jun 05 2013 05:32 PM)

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