Tropical Troubles - FLHurricane.com

Postscript added 07/10:
Tropical Troubles Tamed
Talk about going zero for three - the low drifted southwest toward western Cuba and dried up; Chantal has come to a screeching halt south of Jamaica; the trailing wave never fired up.

Chantal as of this writing late Wednesday evening is still faintly spinning in place at roughly the 10/18Z position. Its convective shield has split with the major segment well-removed to the northeast of the former center while some convection still near the center struggles against rather formidable windshear and redevelopment seems highly unlikely although reformation is still a possibilty. I'll revise it to 1 for 4 since the emphasis on storm preparation planning is always sound advice.

Original Blog
The next ten days look quite wet over the Bahamas and Florida peninsula. A (upper level) low currently centered near northern Andros Island in the Bahamas at 08/04Z is moving slowly westward with an increase in shower activity expected over most of the Florida peninsula later on Tuesday into Wednesday. As the upper low moves into the Gulf of Mexico a persistent blocking ridge should re-establish itself over northern Florida on Thursday into Friday and that ridge is likely to stand generally firm for at least a week.

This pattern is certainly evident in the highly interesting 08/00Z model run. Tropical Storm Chantal, currently racing toward the Caribbean Islands, is projected by to slow down as the tropical cyclone moves into the southern Bahamas late Thursday and creeps into the northern Bahamas by late Saturday - which is all rather compatable with the run. That interesting run stops Chantal (or what ever it may have become by then) on Sunday and starts to nudge the system into east central Florida on Monday and across the peninsula on Tuesday and then the model run sloooowly meanders the system toward and into the north central Gulf coast.

This scenario could produce heavy rains across the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula for a week or more. A rather impressive low-latitude wave is following in the wake of Chantal. If that wave develops - and the suggests that it could - the ridge to the north should still be there and the scenario could repeat itself a little further to the south. Long range model projections of tropical systems often change, so its certainly worth monitoring the tropical Atlantic for the next couple of weeks with emphasis on finalizing a storm preparation plan - just in case its needed.
ED

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