Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Tropical Storm Haiyan, currently near Chuuk Island in the western Pacific is expected to intensify and pass just to the south of Yap Island at 06/12Z and make landfall in the central Philippines as a strong Typhoon (125kts) at about 08/12Z.
ED
Weather Conditions at Yap Island International Airport
Weather Conditions at Koror, Palau
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vpbob21
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According to the latest NWS Guam Local Statement TS Haiyan is expected to pass about 10 miles south of Woleai Atoll around 8PM local time (5:00 AM EST) as a typhoon. This would likely put the island in the northern eyewall. Typhoon warnings are in effect. As per the local statement 75-85 mph winds are expected as well as a 2-4' surge above high tide. According to Wikipedia about 1,100 people live on the island. From what information I've come up with on the topography of the island it appears to be a low coral atoll - not exactly a place you'd want to ride out a typhoon. Hopefully Haiyan will clear the island before getting beyond a category 1.
Further ahead are Yap and Palau and hopefully the storm will shoot the gap between them but it may be a little close for comfort for Yap. There are typhoon watches in effect for both islands. Haiyan is expected to be Cat. 3-4 intensity passing through that area.
And as Ed mentioned the Philippines figure to take a big hit from this one too - but that's about 3 1/2 days away. The Philippines are already dealing with their own system, TD 30W, which is slamming the southern islands with heavy rain and wind. As of now it looks like Haiyan will hit areas further north than where 30W is hitting.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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At 05/04Z, Haiyan had intensified to Typhoon status with sustained winds of 65 knots. Haiyan was located about 400 miles south of Guam moving due west at 14 knots. Rapid intensification is likely and Haiyan is now expected to peak at about 130 knots. Each update to the forecast track has nudged the typhoon further south of Yap - and closer to Palau. The typhoon should pass south of Yap at 06/10Z and north of Palau at 06/20Z. Any additional westward track adjustments would push the center into the Philippines just south of Samar with landfall on Leyte (and eventually Cebu) around 08/03Z. Haiyan has a very large convective envelope and the central Philippines are already preparing for a major storm.
ED
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vpbob21
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As of the 6/03Z advisory Haiyan has continued to rapidly intensify to a 130 kt. supertyphoon while continuing to move just barely north of due west at about 18 mph. It appears to be just about at its closest approach to Yap and is rapidly closing in on Palau. It looks like the northernmost island of that chain, Kayangel (population 138) may take a direct hit. The main island, Koror is under a tropical storm warning and a typhoon watch. The storm is expected to now peak at 145 kts. in the next 12-24 hours.
Regarding landfall in the Philippines I agree with Ed that Leyte island is the most likely landfall point although the official forecast is still holding out for a southern Samar landfall.
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Doombot!
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I realize that the Pacific basin is much larger, but how is it able to churn out super typhoons, seemingly year around? In contrast the Atlantic is only capable of this ¼ of the year.
D!
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MichaelA
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As of today, Haiyan is now a super typhoon. This looks really bad for the Philippines.
NRL forecast graphic
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Michael
PWS
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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I tried to locate some videocams from the central Philippines, but no success. Nearest weather station is at Masbate about 80 miles north of the forecast track.
ED
Weather Conditions at Masbate, P.I.
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vpbob21
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As of 7/15Z winds have increased to 165 kts. (190 mph). I would think this would have to be one of the strongest typhoons on record in the Western Pacific. I can't recall the last time I saw a 165 kt. typhoon. I sure wish we had recon flying in there - would be interesting to see what kind of central pressure they would find.
The storm has been gaining latitude and right now looks like a close call whether Haiyan will make landfall on extreme southern Samar or maybe stay just offshore and land in northern Leyte. Either way it looks like Tacloban City (pop. over 200,000) is going to be hit hard. The storm should then continue WNW across the Visayas mainly staying over water. The is still expecting it to be a 125 kt. typhoon as it leaves the islands. In a couple more days it should hit central Vietnam in a weakened but still dangerous state, maybe 90-100 kts.
News reports have been telling of massive evacuation efforts but I still have to think given the size and strength of this storm there is going to be a high casualty toll. Another problem is that Haiyan is going to cross an area that was hit hard by a severe earthquake last month, and thousands are still living in makeshift shelters.
Edit: The new 7/21Z advisory bumps the winds to 170 kts. (195 mph). Wow.
Edited by vpbob21 (Thu Nov 07 2013 03:18 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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This sure is quite a storm! Intensity has peaked at 165 knots with gusts to 200 knots and I still do not detect any sign of weakening as Haiyan approaches the central Philippines, although there will be some weakening as the system interacts with Samar and Leyte. I expect winds at landfall to be 145 to 150 knots with the southern shoreline of Samar and the northern area of Leyte from Mayorga to Tacloban City as the landfall target area. The Philippine government has indicated that in those areas a storm surge of up to 5.2 meters is possible and that seems reasonable to me since Leyte Gulf is a large area of shallower waters. Only the fast forward speed of the cyclone at 22 knots to the west northwest prevents the surge from being even higher (a slower speed allows more of a wall of water to build as the storm approaches land). The center of Haiyan should make landfall in northern Leyte at about 08/01GMT.
I finally found a videocam - and its directly in the forecast path of the typhoon. The only question is 'will it get light enough to see anything before the power fails'?
ED
Boracay, P.I., Beachcam
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Owlguin
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Reminds me of a large Andrew. I feel for the Filipinos in the path of this storm. There will be a tremendous path of destruction.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Winds are now up to 170 knots (195mph) with gusts to 205 knots (235mph). Central pressure at 07/18Z was estimated at 895MB. This storm has busted the rating - remarkable! The north eyewall of the center is now over extreme southeast Samar Island.
ED
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MikeC
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Typhoon Haiyan Links
Boracay Cam#1
Boracay Cam#2
Haiyan Radar Recording
Haiyan Radar Recording (Alt)
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Random Chaos
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Incredible looking storm on IR - looks like it is trying to go annular, but hasn't quite made it:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/31W/31W_floater.html
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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From GMA Network News, Philippines:
Super Typhoon Yolanda is strongest storm ever to make landfall in recorded history
By TJ DIMACALI,GMA NewsNovember 8, 2013 11:30am
0 1 0 15
Yolanda landfall in Eastern Samar, heralded by high storm surges. Yolanda slams into Eastern Samar with storm surges up to 5 meters tall and maximum sustained winds of 235 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 275 kph, according to the Department of Science and Technology. PAGASA As Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) continues to make its way across central Philippines, it has already gained infamy as the strongest storm ever known to make landfall and the fourth strongest storm ever recorded in the world.
"(Yolanda is) the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history," stressed weather website wunderground.com's Dr. Jeff Masters.
Citing figures from the US-based Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Masters said that Yolanda's average strength of 195 mph (314 kph) at landfall beat the previous record set in 1969 by Hurricane Camille, which carried 190 mph (306 kph) winds when it landed in Mississippi in the US.
However, not all storms are at their peak strength when they hit land. Although Yolanda has set the all-time record for landfall strength, it is not the overall strongest typhoon ever known—but even so, it isn't far behind.
In terms of overall strength, Yolanda is officially the fourth strongest tropical cyclone in world history, according to Masters. He said that the all-time record is still held by Super Typhoon Nancy in 1961 at 215 mph (346 kph), followed by Super Typhoon Violet in the same year at 205 mph (323 kph), and Super Typhoon Ida in 1958 with 200 mph (322 kph).
"(Yolanda) is one of the most intense tropical cyclones in world history," Masters said in a separate entry.
He noted that, in the hours before it made landfall, Yolanda posted maximum sustained winds of 195 mph (314 kph),
Meanwhile, meteorologist and weather journalist Eric Holthaus noted that Yolanda went off the charts as it approached the Philippines.
He pointed out that the US' National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had issued a bulletin saying that the storm's intensity could no longer be tracked using the widely-used storm intensity scale.
"DVORAK TECHNIQUE MAKES NO ALLOWANCE FOR AN EYE EMBEDDED SO DEEPLY IN CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS (THIS)," the bulletin said.
"That means Haiyan (approached) the theoretical maximum intensity for any storm, anywhere. Put another way, the most commonly used satellite-based intensity scale just wasn’t designed to handle a storm this strong," Holthaus explained.
"(I've) never seen that before," he added.
ADDED: On October 12, 1979, Typhoon Tip reached a peak sustained windspeed of 190mph and a central pressure of 870MB. The central pressure is still the lowest ever recorded at sea level.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Nov 08 2013 12:32 AM)
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hurricane_run
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Simply amazing.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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You were right on - from the 08/03Z Prognostic Discussion: "ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS THE NEARLY ANNULAR EYEWALL HAS PERSISTED BUT
IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS."
ED
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Random Chaos
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Looks to be reforming its disrupted eye on the last few IR passes.
Beautiful MODIS images:
505 UTC today:
[UPDATE - Final Image as it passed over the Philippines]:
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Haiyan.A2013312.0510.2km.jpg
200/205 UTC today - it splits between two images. I'll post it if it makes it to the gallery.
North half: http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-b...2020500.2km.jpg
South half: http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-b...2021000.2km.jpg
425 UTC yesterday, approaching landfall:
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Haiyan.A2013311.0425.2km.jpg
Edited by Random Chaos (Fri Nov 08 2013 06:13 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Here is another beautiful pick of the Super Typhoon:
http://pic.twitter.com/3Km8rLiC05
Taken from the IIS.
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