typhoon_tip
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9AM EDT 5 June 2014 Update
As of 7AM EDT June 5, an area of low pressure, Invest 90L, was located near 19.3N 94.4W, or just off the coast of Mexico in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche. Estimated central pressure is 1004MB, with what appears to be slow drift to the south-southeast, at present.
During the overnight hours, 90L has gotten somewhat better organized, and it is worth noting that should it remain offshore long enough, conditions could continue to become less hostile for development. A more developed 90L could pose a threat to the US later this week, whereas a weaker 90L would most likely drift into Mexico, adding to the already saturated grounds left in the wake of East Pac Tropical Storm Boris, 90L's forerunner.
more in the storm forum.
Original Update
It is June 1, 2014, and so the official Atlantic hurricane season has begun.
A region of interest is evolving in the vicinity of the eastern Bay of Campeche/Yucatan Peninsula. The National Hurricane Center has hashed out the area as having lower probability of development over the next five days (20 %). While that is certainly low ... it is not 0. Also, of note, a few modeling sources have been suggesting this region will develop further, and eventually move out into the Gulf. Climatology does like this region for the month of June.
At this time it is more likely that what will result is a deep moisture transport up into the Gulf region and over Florida, as ridging aloft tends to build west out of the SW Atlantic Basin and Caribbean regions, which would establish a conveyor of sorts up into said regions. Nevertheless, there is a climatology for development in June, in that region, so it is monitored.
The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season begins today and lasts through November 30th.
Most of the hurricane activity happens mid-August through mid October, but can happen any time during the season. This time of year you typically look for formation to occur in the Southern Gulf or extreme Western Caribbean. There is an area currently stretching from the Southwest Gulf of Mexico to the Pacific that could possible impact Florida or the Gulf this coming weekend or next week, most likely as a rainmaker, see below for more information.
For Florida, it has been over 8 1/2 years since a landfalling hurricane (not including tropical storms). This is the longest Florida has gone with a gap between hurricanes, and with many more people new to Florida since the 2004 and 2005 seasons there may be a sense of apathy toward preparations.
The 2014 Hurricane Names are:
As for the system mentioned earlier, long range models have been rather persistent in developing a weak low in the southern Gulf of Mexico later next week as a weakness develops between the western Atlantic ridge and a ridge over the southern plains.
The origin of the low pressure system may actually be an anticipated tropical system (Invest 93E) that may form south of the Bay of Tehuantepec in southern Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center has given this eastern Pacific system a high probability of formation within the next 5 days and the cyclone should move north and cross southern Mexico into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center gives this a 20% chance to develop in the next 5 days.
This would bring the potential for heavy rainfall to at least the southern half of the Florida peninsula by late Thursday into Friday and especially into next Saturday. Still a long way off but worth keeping an eye on as the Atlantic season gets underway.
Discussion of this potential system is available in the forecast lounge.
Edited by MikeC (Thu Jun 05 2014 10:23 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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It will be interesting to watch the GOM and see if something actually forms. I can't recall seeing a upper level Low drift as far south as the current one. Passed Brownsville,TX and is still moving south as of midnight EDT Sunday.
See Northern Hemisphere image below.
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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90L is likely to develop, but it won't have much time before reaching the Mexican coastline, flooding rains, mudslides along that area of Mexico are likely. It's very possible once recon reaches it, the National Hurricane Center will upgrade it to a depression or Tropical Storm.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Area of disturbed weather drifting north along the Nicaraguan and Honduran Coasts. Central thunderstorms and little if any wind shear in the area.
Surface observations show very light winds at this time. Will observe for persistence.
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