MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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6AM 2 July 2014 Update
Arthur has begun a more northerly motion overnight, and has strengthened a bit to a 60mph tropical storm.
The official forecast takes it close to the coasts of South and North Carolina, so new watches have been issued, ad the tropical storm watch for Florida was dropped south of Sebastian (But remains north of Sebastian to Flagler)
The new tropical storm watches are from the s. Santee River in South Carolina to Bogue inlet in North Carolina.
A Hurricane Watch is up for Bogue Inlet North Carolina to Oregon Inlet in North Carolina.
Another Tropical storm watch goes from Oregon Inlet to the Virginia Border.
Arthur still is rather dry on the west side, which means it won't be felt much here in Florida except for right along the east coast, it should move away from Florida later today. Arthur likely will hold around the current strength today.
The official track is going to be a very close call for the Outer Banks of NC in the hurricane watch area, which would have its closest approach on July 4th.
1AM 2 July 2014 Update
About two hours ago at 02/03Z Arthur developed an eye. This suggests that Arthur may have become a small compact hurricane but on rare occasions a strong tropical storm can develop an eye. Recon is currently enroute to examine the cyclone. Movement is now to the northwest at about 7 knots.
ED
10:30PM EDIT 1 July 2014 Update
Arthur's convection is mostly on the south and east tonight, but it is beginning to fill out on the north It looks like the track is very good. The strong band coming in from Florida is a unique part of the satellite image right now.
It still has dry areas on parts of the north and west.
6:30PM EDIT 1 July 2014 Update
Tropical Storm Arthur continues to be quasi stationary east of Florida about 85 miles ESE of Cape Canaveral. Recent recon reports has found it to be stronger, and the center a bit south of the 5PM position. No changes with the tropical storm watches, but those in the Cone ahead of Arthur may want to watch it closely, especially with the current strengthening trend.
6:45AM EDIT 1 July 2014 Update
The second month of the Atlantic Hurricane season begins will a slow moving tropical depression east of Florida, about 95 miles off the coast from Cape Canaveral.
This system is forecast to stay offshore of Florida, but it will be breezy along the coast, with some rain bands coming in over the next day or two. The moisture is lacking in the northern part of the system, so until the storm wraps around more the rain will likely be only in short bursts over the peninsula. News is relatively good for Florida impacts, other than poor beach/marine conditions along the east coast. The northwestern Bahama islands are getting the heaviest of rains today.
There is a slight risk for smaller, short-lived tornadoes from the bands if the heavier rain manages to wrap around later.
Strength wise it's held the same overnight, but likely will become Tropical Storm Arthur later today. The official forecast takes it to Hurricane strength in 72 hours, when it nears the coastal area of North Carolina. Which could mean that hurricane watches may be up along the southeast coast of North Carolina July 3rd/4th around the Independence holiday, although anyone in the cone should keep very up to date with the system over the next few days. It may pass by closest to NC overnight Thursday into Friday, as once it gets picked up, it's likely to move out quickly.
The system is a relative small storm, so the worst impacts will only be felt very close to the center, and if manages to stay just east of the coast passing toward North Carolina, it won't be bad. That's a big if, since there is still some uncertainty in the short term movement, but anyone in the cone needs to pay attention to it regardless.
There may be a point, likely tomorrow or Thursday, where the storm strengthens somewhat rapidly, so be aware, especially those along the coast in South and North Carolina. It should move out to sea after that.
Original Update
The system being tracked had a impressive burst of convection late tonight that was enough to seal the deal to becoming the first tracked tropical system of the year in the Atlantic, Tropical Depression One.
Tropical Storm watches are up along the east coast of Florida from Ft. Pierce north to Flagler Beach.
The official forecast keeps much of the southeast coast and east coast of Florida in the Cone, but the main track is mostly east.
Event Links:
Dare County, NC Emergency Management
Eastern Carolinas Power Outage Map (Duke Energy)
Carolina Webcams (roughly south to north)
Myrtle Beach Earthcam
Holden Beach, NC Cam
Wrightsville Beach, NC Cam
Emerald Isle, NC Cam
Surf City, NC Pier Cam
Morehead City, NC Harbour Live Cam
Oriental, NC Harbor Cam
Cape Hatteras Lighthouse Cam
Multiple Outer Banks Traffic Cameras
Mutiple other Outer Banks Cams
Twiddy's Beach Cam OBX
Kill Devil Hills Pier Cam
Nags Head Cameras
East Florida Webcams
Daytona Beach Cam
Daytona Beach Cam 2
Satellite Beach Cam
Melbourne Beach Cam
Orlando near Universal Cam
Port Canaveral Webcam
New Smyrna Beach Cam
Ponce Inlet Cam
Long term florida radar recording (started 3:15PM 6/30/2014)
Mark Sudduth and Jessie Bass from HurricanteTrack will be venturing around the Outer Banks during Arthur
Flowing Wind Map
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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Models are in pretty tight consensus that "one" will head northwest, then north, then northeast. This should keep it away from land. Thinking about the surf along the coast. Might take a 1 hour road trip to New Smyrna in a day or two.
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Recon is on its way out to Arthur now.
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 Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Since there is some difficulty with obtaining the latest RECON data, here is the Vortex message compliments of tropicalatlantic.com:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 18:48Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014
Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 18:23:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°42'N 79°18'W (27.7N 79.3W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 83 miles (134 km) between the NNE and NE (34°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 715m (2,346ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the NW (321°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 56° at 34kts (From between the NE and ENE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the NW (321°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 754m (2,474ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) at 1:30
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
/ 44 NM 18:38:30Z
POSSIBLE EYEWALL SE-SW
The center location is still good. I think the cloud mass to the south of the center is still displaced because of some lingering northerly shear although it seems to be relaxing at the moment and the northern half of the storm is showing better definition. Having said all of that and remembering that storm center fixes (from which movement is derived) are only produced every six hours when no warning is in effect, I'm fairly certain the the movement over the past few hours has been more to the WNW rather than the NW. The MLB long range radar loop tends to confirm this.
Notice the Maximum Outbound flight level wind!
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Here is another one - not much movement between the two:
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 01/19:43:00Z
B. 27 deg 34 min N
079 deg 17 min W
C. 925 mb 714 m
D. 37 kt
E. 035 deg 37 nm
F. 143 deg 42 kt
G. 036 deg 40 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 20 C / 759 m
J. 22 C / 766 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0201A ARTHUR OB 08
MAX FL WIND 61 KT 122 / 38 NM 18:38:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 45 KT 226 / 30 NM 19:53:30Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB POSSIBLE EYEWALL S-SW ;
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Satellite and radar data show that the center is compressing along a north-south axis - and its likely that the westward movement has stopped. At 01/21Z placed Arthur's center at 27.8N 79.4W drifting northwest at 2knots. Sustained winds have increased to 45 knots while the central pressure is now 1003MB. The forecast track has Arthur passing about 60 miles to the east of Melbourne tonight while on a northerly heading with sustained winds of 50 knots near the center. The radius of tropical storm force winds has been expanded to 50 miles in the southwest and northwest quadrants. With a circular center that is 20 miles in diameter, tropical storm force winds should be right on the coast or just offshore from it in east central Florida later tonight and Wednesday morning.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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In the Forecast Lounge Mike had speculated that a new center might be forming further to the south - and I think that he might be correct. The northern center looks like it has collapsed due to a lack of convective support. With the various problems that SSD has had over the past couple of days (including now with an obvious image placement glitch that 'jumps' the image in a time-lapse loop) I'd guess that the center is reforming near 27.5N 79.0W. This would adjust the eventual track a little more to the east of the Florida coast tonight and reduce the wind speeds along the immediate coast. Feeder bands will still pop the winds up from time to time later tonight.
ED
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The hurricane center just released the first ever official Storm Surge Inundation map, with the first subject being Arthur.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/210553.shtml?inundation
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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From the latest RGB I tend to agree with Ed's analysis; perhaps even a bit south near 27.2 just to the west of the convection near that point
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doug
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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I was talking about this scenario yesterday on Facebook. The vortex message verifies a new center about 36 nautical miles SE of the 5 pm initial position.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Northerly shear is 5 to 10 knots tops.
--------------------
Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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GOES Floater Water Vapor Imagagery as of 0510 EDT may indicate a renewed strengthening with banding starting to the west of the center and a new convective burst just beginnning to the east of the center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/imagery/wv0.gif
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