MikeC
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9:30 PM EDT 23 August 2014 Update
Recon managed to find enough of a circulation to classify the low area as a depression with 35MPH winds.
And thusly also setting up the stage for Tropical Storm Warnings for the Southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos.
The official forecast tkaes it similar to the Euro and runs along the Bahamas and then out to sea, with a large error possible. The typical official track cone size does not increase based on uncertainty, it's always the average error for all storms as of late. So there is still a possibility for the track to change, as the has mentioned it being a low confidence forecast.
The 3 to 5 day forecast is based on model consensus that had quite a significant variation so expect continual track adjustments over the next few days as the cyclone slows down into 'drift' mode caused by weak steering currents. This slow drift is forecast for some of tomorrow and all of Monday.
However, everything as it stands currently odds really do favor the official track, so I can't think of a reason to not take it right now, except that it depends on how the actual storm progresses.
10:45 AM EDT 23 August 2014 Update
Recon did not find a closed circulation center, and with land interaction with Hispaniola, 96L is not likely to form today. Tomorrow is much more likely. Many models have shifted west this morning and are still split between a Florida landfall and out to sea (with varying intensity). So it remains important to keep watch through the weekend.
Based on the current trends, if it were to impact Florida, it would be during the day Wednesday.
Original Update
The wave near Hispaniola this morning continues to be somewhat disrupted by the island. The model paths have a wide spread, and overall conditions are hard to judge, as is the exact center location of the wave or wave axis.
Odds favor it remaining weak and out to sea, but have been trending westward over the last few runs and some of the fairly reliable models (GFS, HRWF) have suggested a Florida landfall, so confidence is low. Based on those, If the system were to make it toward Florida, it would likely be here during the day on Wednesday.
Recon is approaching the storm this morning.
For the future, several more reliable models keep it out to sea (euro, for example). So therefore until an actually storm develops, it is hard to say. Please pay attention to any advisories that the National Hurricane Center puts out, and pay attention to local media if something were to occur. Intensity is also an unknown factor (a relatively weak or strong storm).
If named, the storm would be called Cristobal, this is likely later today or tomorrow. Tomorrow is the better bet..
Keep close watch over the weekend. More speculation can be found in the forecast lounge.
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MikeC
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Aircraft recon is around in the system currently, finding 1006mb so far, and the center, unsure yet,.
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MikeC
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Recon isn't finding a low level circulation north of the coast, ~71.5W for the mid level, but the wave is still a mess because of the island. Development unlikely today based on that. perhaps tomorrow.
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scottsvb
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Still need to find this disorganized thru most of the day and alittle more W than the models if Florida is going to be hit. Maybe West of 75W by Sunday morning before the stall then WNW turn.
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OrlandoDan
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At 11:14 EDT, on visible satellite, is that an exposed circulation that appears at around 72.5W 20.3N?
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MikeC
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Quote:
At 11:14 EDT, on visible satellite, is that an exposed circulation that appears at around 72.5W 20.3N?
I can't find any real center, I've seen that but there are other areas that could take over. It will be a mess today, I'd drive myself crazy over trying to find a center right now. 20.2N 71.8W is another possibility.
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Lamar-Plant City
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You really need no other explanation for why the models are all over the place than that there is no consistent center of circulation. Until one steps up and takes over the models aren't really worth the computer time they are taking up IMHO....My brother and family just moved from Ohio to Ft Lauderdale and I may call them today just to make sure they have some hurricane supplies since they just moved in less than a month ago.
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 Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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The following Warnings have been issued:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.
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