The mess that was 96L and TD#4 finally has consolidated enough to become a Tropical Storm, and appears to have done so far enough to the north and east to now be forecast to miss much of the Bahamas and the US entirety. The period of uncertainty that existed in the undeveloped system is now mostly over. Avoiding a troublesome lead-up toward Labor day Weekend.
Cristobal likely will meander around and just north of where it is for the next few days before moving on out over the ocean, it may become a Hurricane over the open waters Wednesday or Thursday.
Beyond Cristobal there may be something to watch a week from now, but nothing currently being watched.
What an ugly looking storm, surface low exposed, with the convection all pushed to the south and east. I suppose the stationary front is going to pull the storm off the coast. I don't see any real reason why it won't happen, but Cristobal really seems to be struggling to make any real headway north and instead meandering very slowly north.
Shouldn't cause any real problems for the US though, at least not beyond some high surf and some rip currents.
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD Student
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