Climatological Peak Arrives With Gulf of Mexico Dolly

4:00 AM CDT 2 September 2014 Update
Tropical Storm Dolly (from Invest 99L) is challenging forecasts, and is now starting to put south Texas at some risk for impacts. As of this update, tropical storm force winds are occurring up to 115 miles from the center. In response, the government of Mexico has extended the tropical storm warning area northward to Barra El Mezquital.

Weather Conditions at Ciudad Victoria, Mexico
Weather Conditions at Tampico, Mexico

4:30 PM CDT 1 September 2014 Update
Invest 99L which made its way from the Caribbean across the Yucatan and into the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Tropical Depression Five presently consists of a well defined surface circulation with a curved band of hearty convection wrapping around to the south and east of the center, and maximum sustained winds of 30 MPH. Five is forecast to become Dolly and make landfall well south of The Texas/Mexico border around mid-week as a low-end tropical storm.

Original Update

The end of August comes with entering the climatological peak for activity in the Atlantic basin, and it appears it could be coming right on schedule with no less than five areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic. Should any of these disturbances become better defined and/or they are issued Invest tags, we will set up individual Forecast Lounges, as warranted.

Closest to home, the broad low of old Invest 98L, which moved inland near Brownsville, Tx late yesterday, has subsumed a strong tropical surge that ran up behind it.

This merged feature is presently producing widespread tropical showers and some thunderstorms along the Gulf of Mexico from the Mexico/Texas border all the way to the west coast of Florida. Gusts of up to 50 MPH are occurring offshore, and as a westerly wind component already exists, despite the old center of 98L now being just inland, it may be wise to keep tabs on this throughout this holiday weekend, just in case. Sometimes inland centers can reform offshore, if given the chance. Either way, some on again/off again squally weather is a safe bet for much of the gulf coast today, and possibly into the rest of the weekend.

Below: Invest 98L 12:15PM CDT 8/29/2014