MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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This area in the Gulf of Mexico has gotten itself together fairly quickly, and the issued a special tropical weather outlook with a 40% chance for tropical or subtropical development.
The biggest story here will be rainfall, upwards of 5-6 inches in parts of the Florida peninsula.
This system isn't purely tropical now, but it could become a small tropical storm before it would eventually landfall (probably somewhere in the Panhandle Wednesday or Thursday) However, most of the rainfall energy will be well to the east, which should drive the rainy weather toward the Florida peninsula. 5-6 inches in a few places, possibly.
There are signals of increased divergence aloft, which is what would be needed for something tropical or subtropical to form in the system. Shear is still fairly strong, but weakening a bit, with both the and European models showing this area developing into a tropical or subtropical storm in 3 days or so
No invest area currently exists, but likely will soon.
Speculation can be found in The Forecast Lounge
Report what you are seeing where you are at here if you would like.
test
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'm seeing multiple Tornado Warnings in Palm Beach County area.
Apparently the Spin in the atmosphere is increasing in some areas.
Stay Weather Aware!
Edited by danielw (Mon May 14 2018 06:11 AM)
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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There have been several Tornado warnings in Palm Beach county because of general spin in the air around this system, more are possible, but no new official updates from the National Hurricane Center yet. It is possible for more of these in Florida, especially Martin county and spreading to a few other places later, so would be wise to be aware of them at least.
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Abundant dry air plowing in from the west has been evaporating attempts at establishing a coherent subtropical to tropical cyclone out of this one. While slightly more aligned than 24 hours ago, the system remains elongated, with occasional weak vortices rotating around the barely closed off low. now at 10% within 48 hours, as in addition to all of the aforementioned dry air, shear has been going up - and ocean space left to travel before moving inland is going down.
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Gulf system now being tracked as 90L
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