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3AM EDT 25 Aug 2018
In what is one of the weirder, and in this situation, unfortunate, tropical weather events that come to memory, Lane is decoupled, with the LLC well west of the islands, seemingly spinning down on its own, but with the mid-level center merging overnight with the remnants of what we were tracking as Invest 95c, and based on recent satellite and radar trends, it almost looks as if they are attempting to reform a new TD just to the east of the Big Island (not expected, rather unlikely, but possible, and just plain Frankensteiny).

Nearby, there is also a large but dry tropical wave with an associated area of weak low pressure approaching the southernmost part of the archipelago from the southeast.

There is no telling what the potential interactions of these three separate, but now interacting systems will do exactly, but it does look likely that this odd event is going to enhance rainfall over portions of the islands already experiencing devastating totals, and as this merger is occurring over and just to the east of the chain, may unfortunately drag out these rains for longer than what would have happened otherwise.

10:45PM EDT 24 Aug 2018
Lane has fallen apart, a victim of shear and the unique topography of Hawaii, rainfall remains, but Lane is now a Tropical Storm.


5:30PM HST Update 21 Aug 2018
Recon is heading back in and may soon confirm that Lane is now an even more powerful hurricane, with winds into Cat 5 territories. Lane is already a historically powerful hurricane in this region, and has steering currents ahead expected to send the most dangerous portion of a hurricane, the Right Front Quadrant, into the entire archipelago. This is an unprecedented forecast, that if verified, may become an epic tragedy. Efforts to protect life and property need to be rushed to completion.

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Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES MOVING CLOSER TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY...

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area beginning Thursday into Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible late Thursday night into Friday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Wednesday into the weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated amounts greater than 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian Islands, beginning tonight on the Big Island, spreading across the remainder of the island chain on Wednesday. These swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.

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10PM HST Update 20 Aug 2018
Recon has found that Lane is once again strengthening, with central pressure at last fix in the lower 950s, and maximum sustained winds possibly around 150 MPH (both pending verification). With forecast steering currents indicating a right hook into the Hawaiian archipelago by Thursday, preparations to protect life and property should now be underway.
-Ciel


Original Entry


Hurricane Lane is a Major in the central Pacific. It now appears likely that the western extent of the central Pacific ridge will be eroding near the Hawaiian Islands as Lane will be approaching and/or tracking closest to the chain. In response, models and indeed the official forecast out of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center suggests that issuance of a Hurricane Watch for islands within the chain may be coming soon.

Hurricanes are rarely a distinct threat to Hawaii, except, primarily, should they approach from the south. This is the trend seen more and more by most models, except, notably, the Euro. Given that the Euro is the lone hold-out, however good a model it is, makes apathy an unsafe bet. Now is the time to begin hurricane prep, including preparing for potential life-threatening floods, rock and mudslides.

Recon has been flying Lane, and based on solid sampling, the intensity was raised to 110 knots late last night local time. More flight data forthcoming.

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Hurricane Warning

Offshore Waters Forecast for Hawaii
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1154 PM HST Sun Aug 19 2018

Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240 nautical miles including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.

...HURRICANE WARNING...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
.MONDAY...E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MONDAY NIGHT...E winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
.TUESDAY through FRIDAY...Hurricane conditions expected over S and
SW waters. Elsewhere, E winds 20 to 30 kt, Seas 8 to 14 ft. Chance of thunderstorms.

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NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...14.1N 152.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Hawaii county and Maui County.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
*Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe
*Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued later today or tonight.

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Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URPN12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 4:25Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2018
Storm Name: Lane (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 08

A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 3:53:43Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.46N 153.95W
B. Center Fix Location: 371 statute miles (596 km) to the SSE (168°) from Hilo, on the island of Hawaii, HI, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 927mb (27.38 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 165° at 13kts (From the SSE at 15mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed Wall
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 154kts (177.2mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the WNW (301°) of center fix at 3:51:40Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 34° at 145kts (From between the NNE and NE at 166.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WNW (299°) of center fix at 3:51:06Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 132kts (151.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the E (96°) of center fix at 3:55:43Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 181° at 144kts (From the S at 165.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the E (95°) of center fix at 3:55:48Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,446m (8,025ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 31°C (88°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,420m (7,940ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 145kts (~ 166.9mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WNW (299°) from the flight level center at 3:51:06Z

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

PENETRATION AT 8000 FT
STADIUM EFFECT IN EYE

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