4AM ET Update 26 September 2018
Kirk underwent tropical cyclone regeneration over the past 24 hours and Advisories are resuming. As winds are already blowing at or above 40 MPH and the storm is now also much closer to the Lesser Antilles, this includes Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings.
Elsewhere, Leslie is undergoing a rapid merging and regeneration. As enough of her core has remained intact, the cyclone is expected to keep the same name, and advisories are likely to resume as soon as later today. Leslie may become a very powerful tropical and/or hybrid cyclone and stay with us for quite a while, possibly racking up sizeable ACE points for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, but fortunately doing so well away from most land.
Invest 98L is passing by the Carolinas, adding to the influx of moisture in the region and reigniting flooding woes. The weak Low now has only a modest chance of becoming classified, and is likely to zip out to sea by Friday, either way.
4PM ET Update 22 September 2018
A tropical cornucopia of systems are now filling the screens as we close out the end of an already very active September.
With this update we now have two new Tropical Cyclones: TD ELEVEN, located about 450 miles east of the Windward Islands, and also Tropical Storm Kirk, located in the far eastern Atlantic.
There are another six Areas of Interest coming up, two of which may become subtropical or tropical cyclones by the early part of next week (98L between Bermuda and the Carolinas, plus also the large, non-tropical Low in the central Atlantic).
Despite forecasts for a near-to-below-average year, September seems to have made other plans. We now already have had six named storms this month. The record for named storms in any one month in the Atlantic going back though known history is eight, which has occurred five times: Oct 1950, Sep 2002, Aug 2004, Sep 2010, and most recently Aug 2012. Two more names this month would tie that record, three would break it.
Original Entry
The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially runs through the end of November and we have several reminders of that today. Indications are strong that the last ten days of this month will likely not go out quietly, with several lows and a couple African Easterly Waves already on the radar.
Two of these features in particular have already been Invest tagged, 97L and 98L. Of these two, 98L appears to be organizing rapidly today, with maximum sustained winds already to tropical storm force approaching the island nation of Bermuda. This system is especially interesting, as it looks to have been spawned in part from an infusion of energy from x-Florence.
Main page mapping and links will be coming soon. Meanwhile, you can also track model outputs and more with us in the Forecast Lounge:
99L (Now Tropical Storm Kirk) Forecast Lounge
98L Forecast Lounge
97L (Now TD ELEVEN) Forecast Lounge
Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 26 2018 04:45 AM)
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