Rubber Ducky
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 34
Loc: Cocoa Beach, FL
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https://www.cyclocane.com/dorian-storm-tracker/
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gsand
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
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This is my go to page:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
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Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2021 Forecast- 15/6/3
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Much appreciated!
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Got a bit of Venturi effect going on between the ULL to the SW and ridge to the NE causing this acceleration. Dorain outran some of his own outflow as the western edge collapsed but is now rebuilding. Very dynamic environment. Motion just N of due W, right on the line still.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
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11AM update and another shift east, might never reach the coast of FL and stay out to sea (fingers crossed). Very close to Cat 5 levels here, but still small with hurricane winds ony out to 30 miles, but the TS winds have expanded slightly out to 115 miles, however they vary widely.
Central FL and Space Coast still need to keep close tabs on Dorian. JAX is look at another bad surge event due to a prolonged onshore flow.
Going to slow to a crawl over the northern Bahamas (brutal for them) then take the opening in the ridge to the north.
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greywolf
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
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Hi folks - newbie here. Really appreciate the knowledge many of you have, I have learned a lot in just
the last week or so. One question (and I hope it is not a dumb question): in looking at the analog storms
to Dorian, I couldn't help but notice that all but one (Andrew, I think) took a rather similar path to Dorian......
initially heading NW toward Florida, but then eventually veering to the N/NE, and never making landfall. Is it just
a coincidence that Dorian took about the same path, or should we be putting more faith in the analogs as
predictors of what may happen? I know that the reason Dorian is now veering to the E/NE is that the high
pressure ridge to the north is now breaking up, and I have no idea whether a similar scenario would have
happened with most of the analogs, but I'm guessing that is very unlikely. Any thoughts/comments?
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2114
Loc: Austin, Tx
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12z models starting to roll in. Some appear to be announcing that a certain amount of windshield wipering could be going on, as models continue to adjust to a) the ULL/MLL to Dorian's west having never pulled further south as earlier expected b) Dorian's arrival to the area still running behind earlier schedules c) Dorian kept tracking a bit north of expected (largely in response to a+b+strength) d) New surface low attempting to form in the Gulf west of Dorian that could be imparting a little touch of extra umph in the upper-levels related to its thunderstorm tops blowing off e) Failing to initialize Dorian's intensity correctly (usually initializing much weaker than reality) f) etc. .. Really, a myriad of mostly subtle but yet, taken together, substantial, synoptic + mesoscale changes. Therefore, until Dorian actually begins a pronounced and persistent track to the north, it is not all clear for Florida - especially not along the east coast of Florida.
Meanwhile, points north in the cone (Georgia to the Carolinas in particular) should begin considering making some initial hurricane prep, as while a track out to sea is now on the table (less likely, but certainly hoped for), inaction or insufficient precaution in the face of such a strong tropical cyclone could prove unwise.
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Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)
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Steve86
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 10
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https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/08/GOES16-TAW-08-900x540.gif
Looking at this, maybe I’m a little confused, but does t it appear as if the opening in the ridge is actually closing off over Florida and grabbing onto the the high that is to the west of Florida?
There was definitely n opening late last night and this morning but now it seems to be closing the gap.
What is your thoughts??
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Could not agree more. In the current sat view the trough in the mid does not seem to be making the progress anticipated. If anything the turn in the steering currents to the north has actually shifted further west than last nights position and the low to its south west is inhancing the east to west flow across the peninsula
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doug
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ObsFromNWFL
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 14
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I am seeing the same thing and the 12Z run has shifted west a bit.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Some of the new model runs shifted ever so slightly west. Probably to be expected with the tricky timing of a north turn around the high. You can see the lows stacking up, though. It does look like Dorian has moved a little more north than west recently. We'll see what the 2pm coordinates tell us.
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Quote:
I am seeing the same thing and the 12Z run has shifted west a bit.
So maybe back to something like 2AM advisory #27 cone. Weak steering currents and potential stall would open up a whole can for worms. Ridge is stronger then forecast would hinder northern movement. The ULL appears to be sinking more SW. The next front might be coming in quicker, does that block or lift Dorian out? The ridge to the NE is coming down hard. Lots of variables still in play. Currently still on the line, a wobble here or there but primarly due W. Basically stuck on 26N.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
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All is relatively calm here in southwest Seminole county. Was able to find gas on my first try, but they only had regular. Only one of my neighbors is partially boarding up. I am going to wait until tomorrow morning to decide to board up and I may just do bedrooms and north and east facing windows. Can do the rest later. Still a lot of time for that decision.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
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I give up.After 40 plus years of tracking these things,I give up.Now this one may miss Florida all together.All our high tech and this happens.I need a new hobbie.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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kspkap
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
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Post deleted by kspkap
Edited by kspkap (Sat Aug 31 2019 02:14 PM)
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 195
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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I hate it when run to run "fine-tuning" flops around like a flounder when splitting hairs is required- but its understandable given the subtle yet dynamic situation with such a formidable hurricane.
Please keep this rapid-fire, candid discussion of Dorian's influencers coming in. It helped me greatly in deciding to stay during the last hours of Matthew's run toward my coastal Volusia location.
I haven't let my guard down yet- and won't until Dorian clears the Cape's latitude a minimum of 75 miles offshore. My neighbors fled during Matthew (saw that I stayed). I stayed for Irma they did too. Don't know if the "Hey Mikey- he likes it!" effect came into play, but the neighbors declared "all clear" based on the 11 am advisory.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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12z Euro is rolling out now. Track as far as positioning off the coast of FL doesn't look all that different.
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Check the Surf
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 209
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
12z Euro is rolling out now. Track as far as positioning off the coast of FL doesn't look all that different.
Wow, incredible curve overnight. Much more and we might have a spinner after the Bahamas! It sped up even with that relatively high/unchanged pressure...that has to be the top of the scale for pressure/strength of storm.
Let's pray for a northern hit on the Bahamas and hope just a wee bit more curve so it doesn't chew up the Eastern Seaboard!
What a change from barrelling into Florida straight on from last night!
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Londovir
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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This graphic someone posted on Reddit (/u/fighterace00) that combines the track of Dorian with overlays showing the uncertainty cones is really interesting to see:
It really drives home how Dorian has tended to stay on the north/right side of the uncertainty cone for most of its entire run so far.
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Londovir
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Great graphic. Also of note is how much more clustered the model runs are recently with the new recon data added. The spread was really wide during the TS phase.
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