scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1183
Loc: fl
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14:54:00Z 26.617N 76.650W 696.3 mb
(~ 20.56 inHg) 2,708 meters
(~ 8,885 feet) 956.5 mb
(~ 28.25 inHg) - From 130° at 149 knots
(From the SE at ~ 171.5 mph) 8.5°C
(~ 47.3°F) 2.5°C
(~ 36.5°F) 156 knots
(~ 179.5 mph) 176 knots
(~ 202.5 mph) 53 mm/hr
(~ 2.09 in/hr) 168.1 knots (~ 193.4 mph)
Category Five Hurricane
Note: 193.4 mph.. verified...
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chance
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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Reconnaissance plane and satellite fixes indicate that Dorian, as
anticipated, has slowed down and is moving toward the west or 270
degrees at 6 kt. The steering currents are collapsing and Dorian is
expected to slow down even more, prolonging its catastrophic effects
in the northwestern Bahamas.
So the slow down has begun
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Wind field has expanded slightly, looking at 45 miles out for hurricane for and 140 miles out for TS so the updated warnings are inline.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 327
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Even that we`re closed at 1:00 pm for regular business, CBS News wants 50 rooms tonight even though we won`t have any food or bar outlets open. Other news giants are trying to get what ever rooms they can get so that their film crews can be close to the up coming weather event that is unfolding. If I see anybody from the Weather Channel it might be that things are about to get interesting around here. We`ll see. I hope it turns real soon.
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Robert Lauriault
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
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(Unnecessary text removed) - Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 01 2019 11:58 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1183
Loc: fl
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12Z pushes this again back to the 0z run 20 miles further off the coast
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
180MPH and no change in the cone. Lets all pray for the slow down to start soon.
180 is really up there.
Slow only heightens the catastrophe in the Bahamas. Sadly, there are no good solutions here.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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TampaDon
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
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What is it in the atmosphere around the storm that will cause it to slow and stall for 2 days? Understand that if it does, the high pressure systems are suppose to recede and allow the Northern recurve. What will cause such a powerful storm to stall? And what about the older premise that these powerful storms essentially make their own path? Asking for a friend....
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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A TS Watch has been issued for Polk and Highlands County. Just passing on information.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
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And with the update statement, 911mb and 185mph winds.
Not much more to add, just stay safe and take care of yourselves if you end up in the path of this storm. 
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 196
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Quote:
12Z pushes this again back to the 0z run 20 miles further off the coast
Looks like Cape Canaveral's rich hurricane history will place it as close to the eye of historical hurricane Dorian as any point in Florida (assuming Dorian stays offshore and doesn't wobble closer to the coast further south).
We've had 3 brief blasts from fast-moving coastal showers skittering in off the Atlantic from the ENE, accompanied by wind gusts in the 20 mph range. 1/4" so far since sunrise.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
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Encouraging news. *UPDATE* Orlando International rescinds its plans to close Monday due to Dorian's northward turn. The airport will remain open Monday
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Last couple of frames of visible satellite show the eye not as clearly defined. Could Abaco have that much impact to the eye structure?
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
Edited by OrlandoDan (Sun Sep 01 2019 01:23 PM)
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chance
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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If you watch the loop of the long range radar it has been slowing down even more in the last hour
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2115
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Quote:
Last couple of frames of visible satellite show the eye not as clearly defined. Could Abaco have that much impact to the eye structure?
That is very unlikely. What might look like filling from non-hires satellite imagery, is likely just low-level stratus and stratocumulus, which often occurs inside the eyes of mature hurricanes. Recon is about to pass back through, and we'll get a better idea of current intensity.
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Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
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12Z Euro should be out soon. Let's see if it also jogs east.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4436
Loc: Orlando, FL
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is offshore, HWRF landfalls in New Smyrna Beach, UK shifted east, still waiting for the slowdown and move north, neither have happened yet, although it isn't until tomorrow where it was forecast to hit the breaks.
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Steve86
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 10
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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=05L&pkg=mslp_wind
Looks like a shift west
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Euro is getting interpreted by Tropical Tidbits. Looks like a shift west.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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Londovir
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Euro is getting interpreted by Tropical Tidbits. Looks like a shift west.
It's tougher to compare using many of the model plots I've found so far, as you have to use the old "mouse cursor eyeball" method to spot where the "center" of the storm would be, and since the 12Z Euro spots things "in between" the 0Z Euro run steps, but I think it's mostly west and northward from the previous 0Z run.
I took my best guess for where I'd mark the center for the 0Z run's 0Z Wed location, and then looked at the 12Z run's 12Z Tues and 12Z Wed locations, linear interpolated between those two points (though definitely unlikely to be linear - if I'd have model coordinates from data I could have done a spline or other interpolation), and the difference I see is the 12Z model puts the predicted 0Z Wed spot about 85km NNW from the previous run, which places it closer to Melbourne.
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Londovir
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