MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4436
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The expansion is starting to happen now.
Also created a local conditions thread to report anything that happens weather wise around you http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=100518&gonew=1#UNREAD
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
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5AM 26.6N 78.2W
8AM 26.7N 78.2W
11AM 26.8N 78.3W
Its not much... but more N then W motion, could wobble back
3 more invests popped up too, so the must be incredibly busy place right now. They are doing an fantastic job under what must be incredible stress.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
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12Z has jogged east a bit.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
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Overall I think the models did not do a good job with this storm.Sure they have been right the last 2 days,but just a few days ago they had it going into Florida with no chance of doing what it now appears to be doing.Not good!
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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Rubber Ducky
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 34
Loc: Cocoa Beach, FL
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Gently said: Judge the by how well it does as the storm approaches, not how well it did in the beginning. Of course it's harder to get it right 8 days out than two.
As Niels Bohr said, it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future.
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 196
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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As Dorian passes by my latitude (29.15N/80.97W), any wobble to the west, or eye replacement cycle, is so very critical to my hurricane plan. To a simple weather observer like me, the wobbles seem to be random and the eye wall cycles appear to be somewhat telegraphed.
To the seasoned web site moderators and users with intimate knowledge of tropical meteorology- please continue to share thoughts on this critical info for east-central Floridians as Dorian nears the Cape then (as forecast and hopefully) parallels Florida's east coast a minimum of 30 miles offshore. Thank you!!!
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
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12Z Euro looks like it nudged just a tad west at the Central Florida latitude. Suprising.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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hurricanetracker
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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A new model brings it straight across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico... getting very interesting.
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TheBeach
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
Loc: Biloxi, MS
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What model is showing it coming into the Gulf? I have not seen such. While I am glad that it appears to be making a slightly northern turn, it may be just a wobble. Until it heads north for sure, I am still keeping a wary eye out.
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Survived Camille , Katrina, and many in between.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
A new model brings it straight across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico... getting very interesting.
Which model?
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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hurricanetracker
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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not sure what model it is... does not show the names but here is the website:
https://www.cyclocane.com/dorian-spaghetti-models/
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ObsFromNWFL
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 14
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website for euro please
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2115
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re Models:
There are two spaghetti plots on the referenced website that show a track into Florida. However, both are essentially *not* models.
One, XTRAP is a simple extrapolation of where a given system would be if it kept going in the very same direction it has been for the past several hours (not a model - just drawing a line)
The other, TABS, is not much better. While not an extrapolated line, it is very nearly so, as it is merely a trajectory "model" based on the prevailing winds at a given time. A thin hair better than a purely XTRAP plot.
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Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Quote:
not sure what model it is... does not show the names but here is the website:
If you match that up to the spaghetti model image on this site, you will see that is XTRP. Which is not a model, it is the extrapolation of recent (12hr?) location points into the future. In other words, where would it go if it just kept heading in the direction it is heading now.
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 165
Loc: Parrish Fl
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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
GLOBAL has a drop down, is the Euro model.
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Quote:
Overall I think the models did not do a good job with this storm.Sure they have been right the last 2 days,but just a few days ago they had it going into Florida with no chance of doing what it now appears to be doing.Not good!
As usual the 5 day cone in particular is nearly worthless since it contains about 200 miles worth of error. Watching the animated cone the real mess up was in the very beginning when they had a TS going over the Dominican Republic. Once the storm cleared Puerto Rico the guidance become good. As the storm came into the Bahamas and more upper air data was feed into the models the track verification became nearly perfect.
What was really poor was the intensity predictions, this was going to be a TS or at times a depression, but what we got was a record setting Cat 5. In fact a few models had this storm dissipating over the mountains. Based on its initial formation this seemed like a very likely scenario, it barely survived its first few days (the gave it 50/50 odds) and the center completely reformed in a different location. This thru all the original guidance out the window, which likely accounts for the massive error and (thankful) miss of Puerto Rico.
The great thing about this site is we can all go back in history and read page #1  I for one thought this thing was a joke, lucky I don't work at the or I'd be fired.
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ObsFromNWFL
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 14
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That is where I go. You must update much faster than I do. 
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
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Here's a question, Is there any risk of the system in the gulf interacting with Dorian and shifting the track.
I'm thinking about the Fujiwara effect.
I ask mostly because a matter of a few miles could really change the impacts on Florida.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022
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hurricanetracker
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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do you think there is a chance of it having an affect on the Florida panhandle if it heads farther west or even entering into the gulf?
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
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Quote:
do you think there is a chance of it having an affect on the Florida panhandle if it heads farther west or even entering into the gulf?
Extremely doubtful, I'd say impossible, I just don't like saying impossible.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022
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