hurricanetracker
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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could it possibly get pulled west more?
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GeorgeN
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
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Quote:
Here's a question, Is there any risk of the system in the gulf interacting with Dorian and shifting the track.
I'm thinking about the Fujiwara effect.
There is a possibility though that effect has not been documented when there is a large land mass between the storms. I'll watch the basin images more closely. It's quite an interesting hypothesis.
I've actually been impressed with the forecast models this time, though I'm learning to discredit extrapolation error. I would really like to see spaghetti models that end at the point where the forecast model has less than 90% confidence. Extrapolation beyond that point is not advisable and often brings doubt on the forecast model. Has anyone looked for leading indicators abound the models for this storm? I'm curious to know which ones have signaled change and why.
JMII , I for one don't think you would get fired if you were at the . Government staff know how to censure themselves from making career limiting statements.
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Wesley Chapel FL
Edited by GeorgeN (Mon Sep 02 2019 04:51 PM)
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Mike V
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 31
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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The storm surge generated by Dorian is incredible. You need to see the footage in the various videos that are in this article. People are going to have to re-think how you build houses in hurricane zones.
https://www.bizpacreview.com/2019/09/02/...truction-813465
These poor people are going to be in a world of hurt.
Mike V.
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Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4439
Loc: Orlando, FL
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It's more likely to go further east and off the coast than west at this point, but both are possible, it may get a little closer to the Florida east coast, but the track is pretty good. I don't think there will be any more surprises. (Other than how bad the surge along the east coast may wind up being) Folks along the coast still may see hurricane conditions, and NC may still get clipped.
Right now the storm isn't moving at all, so I'll still be watching and waiting, I'd check back in the morning.
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 423
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Its just stalled... sitting there, not moving at all. This was forecasted but watching it is brutal. Its moved maybe 30 miles in the last 20 hours? I can't see how anything will be left on the island 
Not sure what to make of this with stall... with no steering currents it is still forecast to head NW but it needs to go about 30 miles NW to make its next forecast position in 3 hours. Given its pace of ZERO that seems unlikely. The eye is wobbling around, in fact it might gone slightly NE.
Reports of surge effecting Broward, Two Georges Grille (Boynton Beach) on the Intracoastal is starting to flood.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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Londovir
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
As usual the 5 day cone in particular is nearly worthless since it contains about 200 miles worth of error.
Not entirely worhtless, even in Dorian's case. 5 days ago, during Advisory 17A, they had the storm hinting at a recurve to the north. Yes, the Monday 8AM position was set too high and didn't account for the stall in the Bahamas (about 158nm off of the actual point), but even in that advisory the 4 day forecast spot was an error of about 62-72 nm off the actual position of the storm for 4 days out. That's actually remarkable. And we need a few more days to see if that Monday 8AM forecast position that was "off" ends up actually being close to being "on", if not for the day/time forecast. Time will tell on that one.
I'd say the has almost...almost...gotten the 48 hour forecasting down to a reasonable science. They're doing real good work on the 48-96 hour range, and the 120 hour range is still fairly remarkable considering how unimaginably complex these dynamic atmospheric systems are.
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Londovir
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HurricaneSteph
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 11
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Last couple of frames look like a turn to NE has begun...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir
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HurricaneSteph
Orlando
Edited by HurricaneSteph (Mon Sep 02 2019 05:28 PM)
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Rhino
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
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It's not moving, those are nothing but wobbles. NE motion won't start until tomorrow
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 415
Loc: Longwood, FL
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18Z is coming in. Its showing a slight jog east.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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IndianRockswx
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
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Looks that way, and the Northwest side is getting pushed back flat too...
https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,26.647,-78.898,7
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hurricanetracker
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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if hurricane Dorian was to weaken more... would it be easier to be pushed west or pulled up?
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
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Been staring at and refreshing the Long Range Base Reflectivity out of MLB, and Dorian is on the move (as of about 8:45pm)
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hurricanetracker
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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which direction?
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
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Quote:
which direction?
'
I'm sorry, IMO more due west
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hurricanetracker
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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ok... estimated speed?
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Been staring at and refreshing the Long Range Base Reflectivity out of MLB, and Dorian is on the move (as of about 8:45pm)
Not seeing that on satellite yet. Looks like we are still at a dead stop.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
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https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=mlb&product=N0Z&loop=yes
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 423
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Hard to tell if its moving because the eye is getting flattened a bit. Just been wobbling in place for 24 hours. The NW in particular is being influenced by the ridge coming thru the SE US right now. A wedge of dry air is filling in the east. Overall outflow is being limited. Dorian has run out of warm ocean water and is stuck, trapped between several competing weather patterns. Its like a massive tug-of-war, something has to give. At one point (days ago) the storm had became elongated from NW to SE, now that has flopped. The almost perfectly round structure is going away. Not sure what to make of it but the only way out seems to be to the NE.
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Kraig
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
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Quote:
Quote:
Been staring at and refreshing the Long Range Base Reflectivity out of MLB, and Dorian is on the move (as of about 8:45pm)
Not seeing that on satellite yet. Looks like we are still at a dead stop.
Agreed....no movement other than wobbles...
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2022 forecast 21/11/4; 0/0/0 as of 6/1
South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)
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hurricanetracker
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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even though its not a big jog west... it looks like it took a tiny shift south west. and the Weather Channel did say it shifted a tiny bit west.
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