cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Above: Invest 97L (circled in red) sandwiched between several other waves
Base image credit: Weathernerds.org
The most recent in a train of waves that have rolled across the Tropical Atlantic with initially strong model, and indeed , support, does appear to be holding its own if not even coming together, and this one is now given 90% odds of becoming a tropical cyclone within 5 days per . It has been tagged Invest 97L, and we are starting a lounge on it.
While convection is not as beefy as several of the other waves before and behind it, 97L already has a well defined circulation and only a modest increase in showers and thunderstorms would likely qualify the system as a TC. The next name on the list in 2019 is Imelda.
Initial indications are for 97L to become a TD or named storm prior to reaching the Antilles later this week, and recurve - with odds favoring, but not guaranteeing, a spin out to sea. There are suggestions that it could pass very near Bermuda next week, which would not be welcome news to residents of that island who may be having to deal with recovery from Humberto hitting them this week.
TEN became Tropical Storm Jerry overnight and the title has been updated accordingly on 9/18 - Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 18 2019 10:35 AM)
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 209
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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If it stays off of Cuba, this thing might thread the needle and give us a seriously dangerous Gulf Of Mexico based storm.
Edited by cieldumort (Mon Sep 16 2019 07:28 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
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97L looks to get classified at any time now, and we will likely see it become Imelda or Jerry this week.
Some concerting trends overnight have been indicative of potential for the center to form/reform and/or be dragged south of where proto-TC 97L was originally projected to travel, and some of this is bearing out in a few models. For example, latest HWRF brings 97L as a then Major into the northern Leeward Islands Friday night/Saturday morning.
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 197
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Quote:
Some concerting trends overnight have been indicative of potential for the center to form/reform and/or be dragged south of where proto-TC 97L was originally projected to travel, and some of this is bearing out in a few models. For example, latest HWRF brings 97L as a then Major into the northern Leeward Islands Friday night/Saturday morning.
Beyond the weekend... there is some indication that the trough originally forecast to promote re-curve well offshore may be replaced by strong high pressure building southward over the western Atlantic the first days of fall through the last days of September. If this pans out, a more WNW track following passage through or just north of the islands would not be out of the question. While the GOMEX is likely off the table, Florida's storm-weary east coast isn't. We need a re-curve sooner with enough latitude gained to avoid another nail-biter.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4439
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Advisories to start on TD#10 at 11AM EDT.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 355
Loc: Southeast, FL
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I think Invest 96L is not totally out of the question, and still needs to be watched as it may change the dynamics in about 3-4 days, it could start going once near the Bahamas , pumping the ridge behind allowing 10 south, while breaking the ridge and allowing a recurve out to sea. Still early.
Edited by Robert (Tue Sep 17 2019 10:43 AM)
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 209
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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It's starting to get picked up better on the models. A good number of them are showing it hitting or at least kissing Northern Florida, Georgia or South Carolina. Given the track it's taking and steering from the available data on airmasses there is a decent amount of concern that it's *possible* this might make landfall and if it does it could be a major storm when it does that.
The current models (the ones picking TD 10 up) generally have it touching the coast/getting damn near it but so much can happen between now and then. A lot of models aren't even seeing it properly yet so keep in consideration that the models that are getting organized are probably not strong indicators of the storm yet.
Even though it's still a very long time out of even getting within the cone (a week) however this is the part where you start to make sure you have yourself Hurricane ready if you live in South East USA. We're having a VERY active season it seems and it's conceivable that it's going to keep going.
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