Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Atlantic suddenly become quiet again with nothing tropical on the horizon.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 39 (Nicholas) , Major: 54 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1108 (Michael) Major: 1108 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101083 - Fri Jul 31 2020 08:35 AM

So its got about 36 hours to get its act together because right now its not looking very impressive to me. The small core is not rotating around the center, the outflow is somewhat limited and there is just one major feeder band. Just like last night there is cluster of energy but its still displaced. Now if this wraps around and it rides the western edge of the guidance then those in SE FL maybe we'll have something to worry about it.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101084 - Fri Jul 31 2020 09:23 AM

Most Early run 12Z models shifted slightly west, including the TVCN.




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101085 - Fri Jul 31 2020 11:31 AM

The are finally some bursts on the NW quad but the SE & NE quad is dying off, SW is bone dry and some of that air got sucked in limiting developement. It does appears to be eroding the ridge / trof with improved outflow in its projected path direction. So signs point to some strengthening if can only get more symmetrical and isolate its environment. Right now its still fighting some southern shear apparently. Overall its a tiny core with a very limited wind field so as long as it stays just offshore effects will be not be at the hurricane level on the S FL coast. As it gets into the Bahamas we should get some better data from ground sites.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101086 - Fri Jul 31 2020 11:46 AM

12z GFS now landfall between Fort Pierce and Vero Beach and riding right up the coast to Cape moving NNE off coast Sunday.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #101087 - Fri Jul 31 2020 12:27 PM

12Z UKMet Shifts West landfall near Homestead and up the spine of Florida then another near Charleston, SC
12Z GFS Shifts West landfall near Vero Beach maybe Melbourne, TS, then landfall near Myrtle Beach
12Z Canadian Shifts West Key largo hit then ride up the west coast just offshore. TS
12Z HWRF shifts a bit east from Florida, but landfall just north of Charleston, SC as a cat 2
12Z HMON Shifts very slightly west, stays east of Florida, landfall near New Bern, NC as cat 1/2 then long island


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101088 - Fri Jul 31 2020 01:33 PM

Well the CDO and the rotational low have finally aligned - its a tiny spinning beach ball now. This has isolated it from the dry air, outflow is improving (on all but the S side) but there are no feeder bands over water drawing in energy. There is still a large chunk of dry air in its path. The recon mission just ended and found a very small wind field with only the NE having hurricane force winds. Next up: can it clean out the center, form an eye and expand its wind field?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101089 - Fri Jul 31 2020 02:31 PM

12z euro has landfall near ft Lauderdale then north to Orlando then exiting NE near Jacksonville. I'd expect track change at 5pm. Canadian has been very consistent with more westerly track for several days albeit prob a bit to far west. Florida pay attention would expect prob cat 1 landfall this voids well for weaker Carolina storm.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 195
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #101093 - Fri Jul 31 2020 06:22 PM

Tom Terry WFTV 9 just said hurricane Isaias flight level winds 87 mph with pressure down 6 mb (from 2pm advisory) to 985.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101094 - Fri Jul 31 2020 06:41 PM

Bahamas composite radar shows an eye wall trying to form. Visible and IR satellite shows some impressive towers forming as well. Its getting cranked up here now that its moved into open water and is free of the influence of the Cuban land mass. Starting to look like a hurricane with more symmetrical outflow.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101095 - Fri Jul 31 2020 07:29 PM

18Zs

18Z GFS Goes in around Fort Pierce as a cat 1 and rides the coast through Cape Canaveral. 2nd Landfall near Charleston, SC Monday night, then stays inland into New England.

18Z HWRF Clips the west end of Gran Bahama the gets sheared, core moves over Cape Canaveral as a Cat 1, on Sunday Afternoon. Second landfall near Savannah, GA on Monday afternoon. (12z kept it offshore of Florida)

18Z HMON Stays east of Florida, then landfalls near New Bern, NC as a cat 1/2 Monday night.

18Z Icon landfall Tropical Storm near Boca Raton Early Sunday Morning then rides inland through North Carolina.

18Z Euro Strong TS/Cat 1 landfall near West Palm Beach late Sunday Morning, rides inland a bit, then Exits near Ormond Beach, Monday Morning as a TS. another landfall, TS Tuesday Morning at charleston, SC


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101096 - Fri Jul 31 2020 07:39 PM

Interesting, Mike. Thank you. It will be interesting to see the next runs of the GFS and Euro. I'm carefully watching in southwest Seminole county.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101097 - Fri Jul 31 2020 08:07 PM

From latest satellite, does it appear that the upper level outflow is improving? Is the CDO improving and consolidating?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101099 - Fri Jul 31 2020 09:41 PM

Levi just posted his update. His data suggests the the storm is fighting shear at the mid levels which is keeping it in check. This shear remains in place for the next 36 hours. There is still a good amount of dry air off to the W and some is getting sucked into the core from the S - this can be confirmed by checking the water vapor loop. While the outflow is good the inflow isn't great, which again means it can't pick up steam. So we have a steady state situation at a low end Cat 1 / strong TS.

As per the standard pattern a curve to the N then NE is expected but the timing can't be determined just yet. The good news is due to the steering winds if the storms gains strength is should also gain latitude. The ridge to the NE is pushing the storm closer to FL so landfall is not out of the picture.

I've noticed that Isaias has become elongated N/S tonight and not the tight ball we saw mid-day and early evening. Recon is still in there and the wind field continues to be very compact.

One of the PWS I was monitoring in the Bahamas went offline so I assume the power went out. Winds were gusting at 60 MPH and the pressure was still dropping.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 258
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101100 - Fri Jul 31 2020 09:47 PM

Looks like Staniel Cay went offline about two hours with a 58 mph gust.

--------------------
Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGULFP5
My Live Beach Cam on Clearwater Beach:
https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101101 - Fri Jul 31 2020 10:25 PM

Yep that was the one. On the current forecast track Alice Town looks to get the core. Andros Island will be under the gun big time and there are 3 airports on the island which should provide accurate data.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101103 - Sat Aug 01 2020 12:33 AM

Seems weird that our TC doesn't look very healthy right now. The pressure continues to drop and the winds have increased, but the presentation looks more ragged than before. Some dry air had intruded, but not enough to decouple the storm. Not a lot of shear really. Odd that it seems to be struggling a bit, especially during dmax. Strange.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: Steve H1]
      #101105 - Sat Aug 01 2020 08:32 AM

Similar to last night the eye is open to the S and its run smack into a wall of dry air to the W. Outflow has weaken considerably. Due to the small size of this storm it tends to fluctuate a lot... and currently its on a downward trend. The NHC used the word "ragged" in the 8AM update.

The wind in Nassau is only blowing in the mid 30 MPH range. This area should get clipped by eastern eye wall.

At this rate the Broward / Palm Beach area will likely not see any hurricane force winds as once again all the storms energy is in the NE quad. The hurricane force wind field is almost laughable small at only 10 to 20 miles from the center. A small squall pushed thru the Alice Town area producing gusts to 40 MPH. I would expect this is the kind of weather Broward and Palm Beach will encounter into the late afternoon and evening. On the current track the storm's nearest approach to this area (where I live) will be around 2AM.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101107 - Sat Aug 01 2020 09:55 AM

As of 0953 EDT, does anyone think they see improving outflow in the SW quad in the last couple of frames of the satellite water vapor loop?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 106
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101108 - Sat Aug 01 2020 10:30 AM

I agree. The last loop of the visible sat clearly shows the CDO is rapidly expanding to the W & SW, which would corollate with the drop in pressure noted during the last HH pass. We will see if Isaias can continue to rebuild its structure. It looked horrible 2 hours ago.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #101109 - Sat Aug 01 2020 11:12 AM

Its is starting to fight off the dry air to the south, but the battle has weaken it and core is even smaller. The wall of dry air between the FL coast and storm is still intact. Its presentation on radar is pathetic, its like 1/2 a storm. The CDO is starting to bubble back up with improved outflow, but overall the environment seems very challenging. Still some shear seen in the outflow to the NW. it almost looks like Isaias is shedding its previous core and forming a new one. If it gets some inflow channels established it might be able to rebuild but right now its pretty sad looking. Pressure is up compared to 8AM and winds are down. I actually think the winds are even lower then reported but the NHC tends to over vs under estimate these.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., Atricks, danielw, Clark, Christine H, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort, Jackie M, Wigeon, Hank Buck 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 41636

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center