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Archives 2010s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101112 - Sat Aug 01 2020 01:19 PM

Satellite presentation looks like you can throw out all the models. It looks like, if I'm reading this correctly the motion is wnw moving off the west side of Andros which would put the storm aprox 50 miles to the sw of the track it is supposed to be on.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=su...orbar=undefined

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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


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Owlguin
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 64
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #101114 - Sat Aug 01 2020 02:15 PM

It doesn't look very impressive on satellite currently.

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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #101115 - Sat Aug 01 2020 02:30 PM

As predicted the weaker storm is bending more westward. The shear is really taking its toll. There is almost no convection over the core and the center has expanded which has caused the winds to drop again. The outflow is minimal, the low level spin is there but the moisture engine appears be stuck in neutral. What we have here is a strong TS and barely a 'cane to me. For it to survive it needs to slow down and gather itself back up. Currently the environment doesn't seem to favor that. The warm water fuel is available but the Isaias is struggling to take advantage of it.

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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 195
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #101116 - Sat Aug 01 2020 02:33 PM

Noticed that WNW too- even though the 2 pm advisory's coordinates were "steady as she goes" to the NW. Also Isaias circulation decoupled from deep convection, quite exposed to the southwest.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101118 - Sat Aug 01 2020 02:40 PM

Watching from SW Seminole County. Does he have enough left to regenerate over the warm Gulf stream waters and is he jogging a little west of the predicted path?

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 195
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101119 - Sat Aug 01 2020 02:44 PM

Quote:

As predicted the weaker storm is bending more westward. The shear is really taking its toll. There is almost no convection over the core and the center has expanded which has caused the winds to drop again. The outflow is minimal, the low level spin is there but the moisture engine appears be stuck in neutral. What we have here is a strong TS and barely a 'cane to me. For it to survive it needs to slow down and gather itself back up. Currently the environment doesn't seem to favor that. The warm water fuel is available but the Isaias is struggling to take advantage of it.




Carl Parker (TWC) suggested there will be a window of opportunity for Isaias to strengthen some this evening and in the early morning hours when tracking over the deep/warm Gulf Stream water between the NW Bahamas and Southeast Florida when the diurnal cycle overnight enhancement of convection occurs.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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EMS
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 52
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101120 - Sat Aug 01 2020 02:47 PM

I saw the wobble west but appears to be just that as a more northerly component has resumed. Overall trend still on track - but a couple more wobbles west will make an East Coast Florida landfall more likely. That said seems like all the worst weather displaced well to east.

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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #101122 - Sat Aug 01 2020 04:51 PM

The NHC should downgrade to TS status at 5PM, this thing is a mess. The system has become completely decoupled. In the NE quad some towers are popping up and the dry air wall is finally showing sign of cracking. However Isaias has become a shell of its former self. At this point its doing a reboot and must restart from scratch. The low level circulation is completely exposed and has started moving NNW. Pretty incredible to have a storm so close yet it be so dry, there are just no feeder bands to speak of. Its a tough little thing... just refusing to die.

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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101125 - Sat Aug 01 2020 06:07 PM

As I forecasted, there is explosive convection in the NE quadrant now that Isaias is under the influence of the Gulf Stream.

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 258
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101126 - Sat Aug 01 2020 06:37 PM

Took a nap around noon and it seemed to die. Went to grab some dinner and it appears to be blowing up.

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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101127 - Sat Aug 01 2020 06:42 PM

Let us all keep a cautious eye on this potential sleeper. He is exploding in the NE Quad and he seems to be veering a little west, but not much. Care, caution, and calm diligence is in order and we should react only when warranted.

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101128 - Sat Aug 01 2020 06:50 PM

The explosion of energy is impressive but can it wrap up? It almost looks like the center is trying to reform under the CDO off to the NE of its 5PM position. Based on radar its moving NE now. Might put Freeport in the crosshairs instead of Bimini. Very interesting to see the dynamics of this little storm. Got a long night ahead of us here.

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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101130 - Sat Aug 01 2020 07:13 PM

Yes a very interesting radar picture. I agree that something is happening in the NE quadrant. .

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doug


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 258
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #101131 - Sat Aug 01 2020 07:23 PM

Quote:

Yes a very interesting radar picture. I agree that something is happening in the NE quadrant. .



Can see it in the latest IR as well.

--------------------
Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGULFP5
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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101132 - Sat Aug 01 2020 07:57 PM

Per the 8PM update the shear must be pretty bad as that strong circulation off to the NE seen on radar is not the low pressure center... sure had me fooled. So the TS is still on track moving NW heading towards Bimini. We are losing the visible sat image so its all radar and IR from here on out.

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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101133 - Sat Aug 01 2020 08:00 PM

Agreed the sheer is taking a toll, but the fact that there is explosive convection in the NE quad is evidence that Isaias is not dead.

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 258
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101135 - Sat Aug 01 2020 08:23 PM

Quote:

... that strong circulation off to the NE seen on radar is not the low pressure center... sure had me fooled.



It sure is being persistent. Seems like it should just spin out, but keeps on spinning. For the moment anyway.

--------------------
Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGULFP5
My Live Beach Cam on Clearwater Beach:
https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html


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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 52
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101138 - Sat Aug 01 2020 09:24 PM

Looks like a decoupling between the low level center and another spin setting up further east. Look at it on radar (Bahamas and Miami), I think I can see two different vortices.

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!


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Kraig
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 54
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: mikethewreck]
      #101139 - Sat Aug 01 2020 10:29 PM

Based on the radar images, looks like it has almost stalled with a little drift towards the ENE...

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2021 forecast 18-10-5; 18-7-4 as of 9/26

South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #101140 - Sat Aug 01 2020 10:47 PM

Recon was just in there and reported six center fixes all clustered in a small area. The last two were a little north and east of some of the others. If anything it appears to be drifting. This is one odd storm.

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