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Archives 2010s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Isaias Forecast Lounge
      #101011 - Fri Jul 24 2020 03:25 PM

The wave currently with a 40% chance to develop in the far east Atlantic is now being tracked as Invest 92L.

GFS Models don't show much development, however the Euro shows a formidable System approaching the islands later next week and potentially more impacts down the road (although the long range Euro track is windshield wiper-ing between Recurve and Yucatan, and the 12Z is between those).. We'll be watching it closely.


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doug
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101014 - Fri Jul 24 2020 06:54 PM

yes it is early but let's watch closely

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101024 - Sat Jul 25 2020 07:19 AM

Very large spread on the models today in the longer range, but it implies 92L will be one to watch both in the Caribbean and beyond. Until the system develops, this isn't much more of a sign to "Watch something" rather than anything important.

The 0z Euro has the closest approach to the islands on Wednesday, then tides the Caribbean, ending between Cuba and the Yucatan. Earlier runs had it north or in the greater Antilles.

The 6z GFS picks up on this system finally, has it in the Windwards or just north, on Thursday, near Puerto Rico on Friday, makes a run through the Bahamas a week from Sunday, then recruves it between Florida and the Bahamas.

12Z CMC cuts through Puerto Rico, then recurves before the Bahamas.

0Z German Icon takes it through Puerto Rico and the Bahamas

0z UKMET takes it into the Bahamas after passing over us USVI and Puerto RIco.where the run ends.

Euro ensembles:


gfs ensemble anim:


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Prospero
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101026 - Sat Jul 25 2020 08:37 PM

Any updates on 92L?

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vpbob21
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101027 - Sat Jul 25 2020 11:09 PM

92L now up to 80% chances for development. This is starting to have "that look" of a classic long tracker. There seems to be general agreement on a WNW track toward the norther Lesser Antilles around Thursday, near Puerto Rico or Hispaniola around Friday, then over or east of the Bahamas next weekend and then somewhere off the southeast U.S. coast by August 3rd and 4th. Looks like the East Coast is going to have to watch this, as well as Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and the islands around the NE Caribbean.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101028 - Sun Jul 26 2020 09:21 AM

Another day

0z Euro is a bit faster with a Wednesday night run over the Leewards (weakish), then stays south of Puerto Rico and then goes right over Hispaniola on Friday, which weakens it a lot more, over part of cuba and leaves a very disorganized mess to enter the Gulf. (The earlier 12 Z euro went into the Bahamas and set up for a recurve)

6Z GFS misses the Caribbean islands barely to the north, and then recurves, closest approach to the US is late on August 4th, but completely avoids landfall.

0z CMC is similar to the GFS, but briefly clips the Northeastern Caribbean islands, and gets very close to the Bahamas, but also avoids US landfall.

0z Icon is similar to the CMC but a bit further east once past clipping the Caribbean islands.

0z UkMet barely avoids the NE Caribbean islands and then stays east of the Bahamas

Most are showing Recurve today, with the very notable exception of the Euro. Before a system has actually formed, it's very questionable beyond 3 days, so just be aware, there's a reason these models are on the lounge and not the front page. There's no real trend right now, other than weaker keeps west, stronger turns north. Climatology favors the recurve.


Ensembles:
Euro:

Gfs:


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JMII
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: vpbob21]
      #101029 - Sun Jul 26 2020 03:58 PM

Quote:

This is starting to have "that look" of a classic long tracker.




Agreed since it formed so far east. It looked pretty healthy yesterday but not so much today, there is a ton of dry air head of it. The next wave coming off Africa appears to have a much more favorable environment.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101031 - Sun Jul 26 2020 04:47 PM

12Z Euro is still a caribbean island cruiser that stays weak, and never amounts to much.

I don't think we'll know what to expect in the medium term for another 3 days or so. Recurveish models like GFS, or barrel through and die of Euro. Too much in the long term depends on the strength of the system.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101033 - Mon Jul 27 2020 06:32 AM

Models today, most seem to be on the weaker side, note the quality of the initialization data typically isn't as good before a storm has formed (as far as intensity and actual "center") in this case it's probably initialized too far north, so not posting images on this one.

0z Euro: Keeps it week, runs it through the Caribbean, passes north of Jamaica, and into the Gulf, completely disorganized most of the way.
6z GFS: Keeps it north/east of the Caribbean Islands and recurves it out to sea, fairly weak, except for a brief time near the islands.
0z CMC Moves it over the NE Caribbean islands Wednesday night, moderate TS, then through the Bahamas slightly stronger on Friday, gets stronger, and just east of North Carolina on Aug 3, no US landfall.
0z Icon: Moves it over the NE Caribbean as a Depression or Weak TS on Thursday, then recurves.

GFS Ensembles, majority stay east of the US.
Euro Ensembles: All Weak and over the Caribbean islands.

In short, nothing alarming about today's model runs at all. Only real exception is the Experimental GFS Parallel which does bring the system strong (Cat 3) into Eastern North Carolina on Aug 6th.

So it remains for us on monitoring, but not terribly concerned at the moment.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101034 - Tue Jul 28 2020 08:01 AM

Tuesday model run-through. Weak in the future remains the name of the game.

06Z GFS Keeps it week, depression or less. Near Guadeloupe midday tomorrow, over The Virgin islands on Thursday, still weak near the Turks and Caicos on Friday, Bahamas Saturday and Sunday, then into West Palm Beach on Monday, still very weak (Depression or less) then more or less dissipates over Florida at that point.

0z Euro is also extremely week, and follows the GFS through Thursday, but then rides the north coast of Hispaniola Friday, and crosses the Florida Keys on Saturday night into Sunday, entering the Gulf and then landfalling near Cedar Key north of Tampa on Tuesday night. All VERY weak, depression or just open wave. The storm never really gets going.

0z CMC Is similar to the Euro until Saturday where it strengthens and moves through the Bahamas, then clips Hatteras on Tuesday (Aug 4) and a pretty strong storm before heading out to sea..

0z Icon keeps it weak, and winds up in the Bahamas on Sunday.

0z HWRF Is near the Virgin Islands on Thursday, 993mb/Tropical Storm. Turks and Caicos on Friday, TS or Cat 1 Hurricane. Over Crooked Island in the Bahamas on Saturday, cat 1 hurricane. Clips Andros Island later on Saturday, Cat 2. Then ends the run starting to Recurve, as a Cat 3 just west of Grand Bahama on Sunday.

0z HMON Clips Antigua on Wednesday afternoon, weak, moves over the British Virgin Islands Thursday morning, TS, just north of the Turks and Caicos on Friday, Strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane. Then misses the rest of the islands and Recurves, ends run as a cat 2/3 hurricane though.

0z UKMet similar to Euro, but ends run on the south side of Andros Island on Monday.

Euro Ensembles:


GFS Ensembles:



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101036 - Tue Jul 28 2020 11:30 AM

PTC 9 is formed, closest analog I can find is 1995's Erin, which is one of the storms that hit E. Central Florida, and partially responsible for flhurricane.com being created in 1996.

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Keith B
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101037 - Tue Jul 28 2020 11:30 AM

Good info and graphics.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Keith B]
      #101039 - Tue Jul 28 2020 02:29 PM

Midday Models

12Z Euro: Weak crossing of Guadeloupe tomorrow, then over Puero Rico into the Dominican Republic on Thursday, then riding the north coast of Cuba (remains very weak).

12Z GFS: Weak Crossing of Guadeloupe tomorrow, then over the Virgin Islands Thursday, strengthens some near the Turks and Caicos on Friday, goes over the SE Bahamas Saturday, Clips Andros island Sunday, weakens, then landfalls near Boca Raton on Monday then slowly moves through Florida and exits into the Gulf by Bradenton on Wed Aug 5, then moves up into the Panhandle.

12Z CMC weak crossing of Guadeloupe tomorrow, then over VI and part of PR Thursday, stays north of the Dominican republic, strengthens slightly as well, over the Inagua Islands on Friday, moves through Andros on Saturday, TS Landfall near West Palm on Sunday morning then exits back into the Atlantic near Daytona on Monday, then Clips the Outer Banks by Tuesday and out to sea.

12Z Icon weak crossing of Guadeloupe tomorrow, then over VI and part of PR Thursday, then collides with Dominican Republic Friday, then slips north, weak system passes over Key West on Monday, then ends the run west of Tampa in the Gulf.

12Z HWRF Passes over PR on Thursday as a TS, strengthens into Cat 1 north of DR later on Thursday, cat 2 over Exuma island in the Bahamas on Saturday, passes just east of Nassau as a strong cat 2/3, then over Grand Bahama, ends run well east of Florida.

12Z Ukmet keeps system east of Florida.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101042 - Tue Jul 28 2020 06:14 PM

It may be a tough one to forecast.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101047 - Wed Jul 29 2020 08:12 AM


Quick Model run:

0z Euro, moves it over Hispaniola, keeps it very weak, moves generally west, over Cuba at times, and into the Gulf where it eventually effectively dissipates.
6z GFS over PR, then landfall in extreme S. Florida/Upper Keys on Sunday, very weak. then rides just offshore on the west coast of Florida dumping a lot of rain. (Weak)
0z CMC rides it over Hispaniola, then over Key west and offshore up the west coast of Florida with landfall in the Big Bend on Momday, weak, but a l.ittle more organized than the other models.
6z HWRF Clips the Dominican Republic, then over Andros island on Saturday (TS or Depression) weak landfall near West Palm Beach on Sunday.
HMON is similar to HWRF
0z UKMET keeps it weak, through Domincan Republic, part of Cuba, then into the Gulf, then inland near Tampa on Monday. (TD or weaker)
0z GFS Parallel calls for a recruve, but clips the Outer Banks.


The system still hasn't developed, so without a great center and init data, the models are tending to diverge a lot. Trend has generally been more west each run since the system is moving so quickly. If the system stays south of Hispaniola things change again.


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Owlguin
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101050 - Wed Jul 29 2020 02:32 PM

One thing for sure. It is racing along.

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JMII
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #101051 - Wed Jul 29 2020 04:37 PM

Quote:

One thing for sure. It is racing along.




Thus the shifting of the cone to the west. At this rate Jamaica needs to start watching it.

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EMS
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101052 - Wed Jul 29 2020 05:18 PM

I realize satellite can be deceiving but every time I look at the loop, it seems like the various swirls are trying to consolidate to the south and west of the NHC official position / forecast track. If that’s the case it looks more like it’s headed due west.

Will be interesting to see what tonight’s recon says about a closed circulation, position and movement. Can’t remember the last time a disturbance was at 90% chance of development for so long. But it is a rather large area / broad circulation.


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craigm
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #101053 - Wed Jul 29 2020 07:43 PM

Quote:

I realize satellite can be deceiving but every time I look at the loop, it seems like the various swirls are trying to consolidate to the south and west of the NHC official position / forecast track. If that’s the case it looks more like it’s headed due west.

Will be interesting to see what tonight’s recon says about a closed circulation, position and movement. Can’t remember the last time a disturbance was at 90% chance of development for so long. But it is a rather large area / broad circulation.




Here is some great analysis:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #101055 - Wed Jul 29 2020 10:45 PM

My lounge thoughts, Isaias gets the name at 11PM tonight.

The models have had bad initialization constantly, it'll be further southwest than 8PM at 11pm, and the models will shift back west overnight to compensate. Florida is likely to get some impact, but the trek over Hispaniola will keep it in check, but not as much as if the system were very organized.

The 12Z UKMet is what I think is more realistic. (Which takes it partially over Cuba then into the Gulf briefly before back into Florida (Weak though, strong TS at best, unless we get a surprise). North Carolina may see another landfall also.

The NHC track will probably shift slightly east at 11, but it may not take into account the last minute center shift Southwest, so it too may wind up being shifted back west in the morning.

The biggest wildcard is Hispaniola. Normally storms get torn up by it, but this one is so large and disorganized it may not do much other than cause another center reformation.


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Joeyfl
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101056 - Wed Jul 29 2020 11:18 PM

Not sold on models jumping east will see how they respond to the southwest adjustment with new center location. NHC being careful not to have a drastic wind shield wiper effect in forecast. If this can some how manage to go just south of Hispaniola and slip between Haiti and Cuba might be interesting but shear and dry entrainment will be issues moving into the Bahamas. Wouldn't shut door on eastern Gulf possibility quite yet think tomorrow will have a better idea as we see how it interacts with Hispaniola possibly dancing between the passages of the islands.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101057 - Thu Jul 30 2020 12:36 AM

0z GFS seems bogus, and focusing on the wrong energy from the storm. However it does miss the US coast (barely). 6Z will probably shift west

0z UKMET has a TS landfall near Boca Raton and then exits by Daytona, forms into a category 2/3 hurricane and landfalls near Morehead City, NC. this is a shift east from the 12Z UKMET, with the new center formation, I suspect the next run may be a little bit west again.

Euro won't run until much later tonight (2-3am)

0z CMC Moves over Cuba then over Key west, and up around and back in over Tampa as a tropical storm,

0z Icon scrapes the east coast of Florida then landfalls near Morehead City, NC tropical storm or weaker the entire time.


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IsoFlame
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101058 - Thu Jul 30 2020 06:38 AM

the overnight burst of deep convection eastern PR a good distance NE of the last designated coordinates is worrisome. as noted in the 5am NHC discussion, the center may re-form with this convection north of Hispaniola, thus lessening interaction with the highest terrain in the west portion of the island.

very hopeful that the forecast track stays east of fla after the center reforms. worst case Isaias scenario for my location would be for slower forward motion allowing additional strengthening to Cat 1 with landfall near the Cape just to the south. not too worried about rainfall at my place (even though measured 5" in past 3 days) given the forward speed of Isaias probably staying above 15 mph.

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IsoFlame
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101059 - Thu Jul 30 2020 06:45 AM

is it my imagination or is significant improvement in banding occurring toward the end of this loop:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092020

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JMII
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101060 - Thu Jul 30 2020 07:10 AM

Quote:

the overnight burst of deep convection eastern PR a good distance NE of the last designated coordinates is worrisome. as noted in the 5am NHC discussion, the center may re-form with this convection north of Hispaniola, thus lessening interaction with the highest terrain in the west portion of the island




Noticed that too. It’s just such a mess... and for the last day it seemed to have two centers that are confused as to which one is in control. It’s starting to build a moisture bubble but it’s very lopsided. Given its current position and surrounding environment I don’t see how it can wrap up. Thus it should stay weak not matter where it goes in the next 24-48 hours.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101061 - Thu Jul 30 2020 07:13 AM

Some of the energy is trying to shoot the Mona Passage, seen on Radar, but the overall center still looks like it will go over Hispaniola. Still think the result system after moving over DR will be further west than depicted by most of the models (Except Euro), but we'll find out today if it is or not.


0z Euro reforms center after crossing north of the Haiti/DR border, and then shifts west weakly into Miami late Saturday night, moves inland to tampa by Sunday night, then out near JAX and then approaching Wilmington, NC on Wednesday, then out to sea.

6z GFS starts to recurve the system over Andros island in the Bahamas, then closest approach the the US/NC on Tuesday, but misses landfall to the east.

0z Parallel GFS starts to recurve in Central Bahamas, but then landfalls in the Outer Banks of NC Monday morning as a Category 3 hurricane.

0z CMC Rides just off the north coast of Hispaniola then off Cuba, then crosses the middle keys Saturday night weak TS or wave, then into Ft Myers on Sunday as a weak wave, then stays inland.

0z HWRF recurves into the central Bahamas, and clips the outer banks.

I suspect the 12Z models will shift west slightly.





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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101062 - Thu Jul 30 2020 08:05 AM

Visible satellite shot shows the LLC still south of the Mona passage, looks like that one will go over Hispaniola, the MLC is a little to the north (this one is easier to see on Radar than the low level center), so that could imply something new gets spinning later, but it appears a bit decoupled. But the MLC is already on its way over the DR as well. Something will reform on the north coast, but I think it'll be further west than the GFS shows, closer to the Euro runs.

still think the Euro has the right idea here over the GFS types. It'll be interesting, Recon is having an interesting time finding the low level center, but it looks like 17.5 or 17.6N 68.5W south of the eastern part of the Dominican Republic.

the 6z euro (premium) shows it landfalling just south of Homestead Saturday night then riding the west coast of Florida up (weak).

0z Ukmet also takes it into Homestead and out near Daytona then a stronger landfall near Wilmington, NC.


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IsoFlame
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101063 - Thu Jul 30 2020 08:50 AM

Strong band of convection NNE of the LLC trying to "thread the needle":
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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Owlguin
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101064 - Thu Jul 30 2020 10:37 AM

Can anyone suggest the best sites for satellite images? I always used the Goes floater through the NHC, but the images keep jumping, I can't figure out how to freeze the loop or get latitude & longitude on the images. It used to be more user friendly!

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craigm
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #101065 - Thu Jul 30 2020 10:44 AM

Quote:

Can anyone suggest the best sites for satellite images? I always used the Goes floater through the NHC, but the images keep jumping, I can't figure out how to freeze the loop or get latitude & longitude on the images. It used to be more user friendly!




Here ya go
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=gl...orbar=undefined

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craigm
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101066 - Thu Jul 30 2020 10:47 AM

Quote:

Strong band of convection NNE of the LLC trying to "thread the needle":
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes



45 mins old:
Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 14:09:30Z
Coordinates: 18.650N 67.667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.1 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,563 m (5,128 ft)
Extrap. SFC. Press: 1010.7 mb (29.85 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 152° at 64 kts (From the SSE at 73.6 mph)
Air Temp: 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Dew Pt: 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 66 kts (76.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: 48 kts (55.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 24 mm/hr (0.94 in/hr)

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Owlguin
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #101067 - Thu Jul 30 2020 11:18 AM

Nice thanks.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #101068 - Thu Jul 30 2020 12:06 PM

12Z's so far (note until we have a good center post the islands, these are good for general trends.

12Z GFS rides up through the southern Bahamas, crosses n. end of Andros as a strong TS, stays offshore of Florida, but landfalls near Morehead City, NC as a Category 2 hurricane on Monday afternoon. This is a slight shift west of the 6Z

12Z Icon is also a shift west, TS over Andros Island on Saturday morning, TS Brush of West Palm Beach on Sunday morning, TS Landfall at Morehead City, NC on Tuesday morning.

12Z Ukmet keeps it east of Florida this go around (barely), but sends a Cat 3 hurricane into Morehead City, NC Late Monday. Shift east in near term from 0z.

12Z Canadian has a weak hit on Key Largo Late Saturday night, then rides up the west coast of Florida, bringing loads of rain. Basically the same as the 0z run.

12Z HWRF stays (Barely) east of Florida than a Tropical Storm landfall near Wilmington, NC

12Z Euro will be very interesting, the strength of the trough/ridge is what's guiding how far west this gets. Regardless of exactly where it winds up reforming.


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IsoFlame
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #101069 - Thu Jul 30 2020 01:39 PM

Great link~ added to favorites. Love the ability to zoom in sub-regional:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=su...orbar=undefined

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101070 - Thu Jul 30 2020 02:40 PM

12Z Euro run, Cat 1 hurricane over Andros Island on Saturday, then just offhsore of Vero Beach Sunday morning. Then cat2 landfall near Wilmington, NC Tuesday morning.

Exits near Delmarva by Wednesday, then a TS landfall on Long Island later that day.


Shift east by Euro.

Euro Ensembles:


GFS Ensembles:



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JMII
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101073 - Thu Jul 30 2020 05:02 PM

For a bit it looked like it was going to jump north and ride the coastline of the DR, but now its back closer to the official track position. Still hard to tell as the center is open to the SW.

TS warnings are up for the east coast of FL as the NHC has upped the intensity slightly.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101074 - Thu Jul 30 2020 08:40 PM

18Z Euro is slightly closer to Cape Canaveral than 12Z, but still offshore. Slight Trend West
18Z Hwrf gets sheared to nothing as it nears Florida and moves inland near vero Sunday morning, while all the energy remains out to sea, and loops and eventually heads back up.
18Z GFS is very similar to 12Z GFS
18Z HMON is slightly west of 12Z, brings a hurricane landfall into NC Monday Morning near New Bern


0z "Early run" models generally with a slight west shift.



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JMII
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101075 - Thu Jul 30 2020 09:53 PM

Impressive burst of energy this evening, but way off the east. Seems the center jumped ahead and became decoupled. Would have been a stronger storm if it had gotten N to the coast earlier this afternoon and wasn't moving so fast. The outflow on the whole west side appears to be running into the trof as the entire system is encountering some shear.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #101079 - Fri Jul 31 2020 06:39 AM

Brass tacks days now that it's past the Islands. The timing, Euro slow vs GFS Fast is what concerns me the most for the future track, shear and intensity is also a wildcard.

6z GFS over Andros Island tomorrow morning, cat 1, closest to Florida (off Melbourne) by 30 miles on Sunday morning, cat 1. Cat 1 landfall just north of NC/SC Border Monday afternoon. Then rides the coast inland all the way through Cape Cod.

0z Euro, Saturday morning, misses Andros barely to the north, Cat 2. 30 miles offshore of Vero Beach Sunday morning, weaker, cat 1 then bends back a bit near cape Canaveral Monday morning (10 miles) cat 1 or TS. Landfall again near NC/SC border midday Tuesday. Back over water offshore of Delmarva on Wednesday morning, and a TS/Cat1 landfall on Rhode Island by Wednesday evening.

6z Icon Landfall near West Palm, Tropical Storm Sunday Morning, exits near Daytona, Monday Afternoon, landfall TS near Wilmington, NC Tuesday Midday.

0z Canadian, Weak, Moves over Andros Saturday morning, landfall Miami as a tropical storm on Saturday afternoon, rides through spine of Florida, briefly exits Monday morning in the Atlantic, then another landfall near Charleston, SC.

0z UKMET stays offshore of Florida, landfall near Morehead City, NC Cat 2 Tuesday morning.

6z HWRF Stays offshore of Florida, gets close to cocoa beach, maybe 20-25 miles, heavily sheared toward the east. Landfall near McClellanville, SC as a cat 1.

6z HMON Keeps east of Florida and has a landfall around Morehead City, NC in the morning on Monday. Strong Category 1, likely.

Euro Ensembles:


GFS Ensembles:



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101081 - Fri Jul 31 2020 08:04 AM

6Z Euro, landfall Cat 1 Miami Saturday night. Significant Shift west.

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JMII
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101083 - Fri Jul 31 2020 08:35 AM

So its got about 36 hours to get its act together because right now its not looking very impressive to me. The small core is not rotating around the center, the outflow is somewhat limited and there is just one major feeder band. Just like last night there is cluster of energy but its still displaced. Now if this wraps around and it rides the western edge of the guidance then those in SE FL maybe we'll have something to worry about it.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101084 - Fri Jul 31 2020 09:23 AM

Most Early run 12Z models shifted slightly west, including the TVCN.




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JMII
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101085 - Fri Jul 31 2020 11:31 AM

The are finally some bursts on the NW quad but the SE & NE quad is dying off, SW is bone dry and some of that air got sucked in limiting developement. It does appears to be eroding the ridge / trof with improved outflow in its projected path direction. So signs point to some strengthening if can only get more symmetrical and isolate its environment. Right now its still fighting some southern shear apparently. Overall its a tiny core with a very limited wind field so as long as it stays just offshore effects will be not be at the hurricane level on the S FL coast. As it gets into the Bahamas we should get some better data from ground sites.

--------------------
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Joeyfl
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101086 - Fri Jul 31 2020 11:46 AM

12z GFS now landfall between Fort Pierce and Vero Beach and riding right up the coast to Cape moving NNE off coast Sunday.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #101087 - Fri Jul 31 2020 12:27 PM

12Z UKMet Shifts West landfall near Homestead and up the spine of Florida then another near Charleston, SC
12Z GFS Shifts West landfall near Vero Beach maybe Melbourne, TS, then landfall near Myrtle Beach
12Z Canadian Shifts West Key largo hit then ride up the west coast just offshore. TS
12Z HWRF shifts a bit east from Florida, but landfall just north of Charleston, SC as a cat 2
12Z HMON Shifts very slightly west, stays east of Florida, landfall near New Bern, NC as cat 1/2 then long island


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JMII
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101088 - Fri Jul 31 2020 01:33 PM

Well the CDO and the rotational low have finally aligned - its a tiny spinning beach ball now. This has isolated it from the dry air, outflow is improving (on all but the S side) but there are no feeder bands over water drawing in energy. There is still a large chunk of dry air in its path. The recon mission just ended and found a very small wind field with only the NE having hurricane force winds. Next up: can it clean out the center, form an eye and expand its wind field?

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Joeyfl
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101089 - Fri Jul 31 2020 02:31 PM

12z euro has landfall near ft Lauderdale then north to Orlando then exiting NE near Jacksonville. I'd expect track change at 5pm. Canadian has been very consistent with more westerly track for several days albeit prob a bit to far west. Florida pay attention would expect prob cat 1 landfall this voids well for weaker Carolina storm.

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IsoFlame
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #101093 - Fri Jul 31 2020 06:22 PM

Tom Terry WFTV 9 just said hurricane Isaias flight level winds 87 mph with pressure down 6 mb (from 2pm advisory) to 985.

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JMII
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101094 - Fri Jul 31 2020 06:41 PM

Bahamas composite radar shows an eye wall trying to form. Visible and IR satellite shows some impressive towers forming as well. Its getting cranked up here now that its moved into open water and is free of the influence of the Cuban land mass. Starting to look like a hurricane with more symmetrical outflow.

--------------------
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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101095 - Fri Jul 31 2020 07:29 PM

18Zs

18Z GFS Goes in around Fort Pierce as a cat 1 and rides the coast through Cape Canaveral. 2nd Landfall near Charleston, SC Monday night, then stays inland into New England.

18Z HWRF Clips the west end of Gran Bahama the gets sheared, core moves over Cape Canaveral as a Cat 1, on Sunday Afternoon. Second landfall near Savannah, GA on Monday afternoon. (12z kept it offshore of Florida)

18Z HMON Stays east of Florida, then landfalls near New Bern, NC as a cat 1/2 Monday night.

18Z Icon landfall Tropical Storm near Boca Raton Early Sunday Morning then rides inland through North Carolina.

18Z Euro Strong TS/Cat 1 landfall near West Palm Beach late Sunday Morning, rides inland a bit, then Exits near Ormond Beach, Monday Morning as a TS. another landfall, TS Tuesday Morning at charleston, SC


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101096 - Fri Jul 31 2020 07:39 PM

Interesting, Mike. Thank you. It will be interesting to see the next runs of the GFS and Euro. I'm carefully watching in southwest Seminole county.

--------------------
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OrlandoDan
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101097 - Fri Jul 31 2020 08:07 PM

From latest satellite, does it appear that the upper level outflow is improving? Is the CDO improving and consolidating?

--------------------
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JMII
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101099 - Fri Jul 31 2020 09:41 PM

Levi just posted his update. His data suggests the the storm is fighting shear at the mid levels which is keeping it in check. This shear remains in place for the next 36 hours. There is still a good amount of dry air off to the W and some is getting sucked into the core from the S - this can be confirmed by checking the water vapor loop. While the outflow is good the inflow isn't great, which again means it can't pick up steam. So we have a steady state situation at a low end Cat 1 / strong TS.

As per the standard pattern a curve to the N then NE is expected but the timing can't be determined just yet. The good news is due to the steering winds if the storms gains strength is should also gain latitude. The ridge to the NE is pushing the storm closer to FL so landfall is not out of the picture.

I've noticed that Isaias has become elongated N/S tonight and not the tight ball we saw mid-day and early evening. Recon is still in there and the wind field continues to be very compact.

One of the PWS I was monitoring in the Bahamas went offline so I assume the power went out. Winds were gusting at 60 MPH and the pressure was still dropping.


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Prospero
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101100 - Fri Jul 31 2020 09:47 PM

Looks like Staniel Cay went offline about two hours with a 58 mph gust.

--------------------
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JMII
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101101 - Fri Jul 31 2020 10:25 PM

Yep that was the one. On the current forecast track Alice Town looks to get the core. Andros Island will be under the gun big time and there are 3 airports on the island which should provide accurate data.

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Steve H1
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101103 - Sat Aug 01 2020 12:33 AM

Seems weird that our TC doesn't look very healthy right now. The pressure continues to drop and the winds have increased, but the presentation looks more ragged than before. Some dry air had intruded, but not enough to decouple the storm. Not a lot of shear really. Odd that it seems to be struggling a bit, especially during dmax. Strange.

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JMII
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: Steve H1]
      #101105 - Sat Aug 01 2020 08:32 AM

Similar to last night the eye is open to the S and its run smack into a wall of dry air to the W. Outflow has weaken considerably. Due to the small size of this storm it tends to fluctuate a lot... and currently its on a downward trend. The NHC used the word "ragged" in the 8AM update.

The wind in Nassau is only blowing in the mid 30 MPH range. This area should get clipped by eastern eye wall.

At this rate the Broward / Palm Beach area will likely not see any hurricane force winds as once again all the storms energy is in the NE quad. The hurricane force wind field is almost laughable small at only 10 to 20 miles from the center. A small squall pushed thru the Alice Town area producing gusts to 40 MPH. I would expect this is the kind of weather Broward and Palm Beach will encounter into the late afternoon and evening. On the current track the storm's nearest approach to this area (where I live) will be around 2AM.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101107 - Sat Aug 01 2020 09:55 AM

As of 0953 EDT, does anyone think they see improving outflow in the SW quad in the last couple of frames of the satellite water vapor loop?

--------------------
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M.A.
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101108 - Sat Aug 01 2020 10:30 AM

I agree. The last loop of the visible sat clearly shows the CDO is rapidly expanding to the W & SW, which would corollate with the drop in pressure noted during the last HH pass. We will see if Isaias can continue to rebuild its structure. It looked horrible 2 hours ago.

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JMII
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #101109 - Sat Aug 01 2020 11:12 AM

Its is starting to fight off the dry air to the south, but the battle has weaken it and core is even smaller. The wall of dry air between the FL coast and storm is still intact. Its presentation on radar is pathetic, its like 1/2 a storm. The CDO is starting to bubble back up with improved outflow, but overall the environment seems very challenging. Still some shear seen in the outflow to the NW. it almost looks like Isaias is shedding its previous core and forming a new one. If it gets some inflow channels established it might be able to rebuild but right now its pretty sad looking. Pressure is up compared to 8AM and winds are down. I actually think the winds are even lower then reported but the NHC tends to over vs under estimate these.

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craigm
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101112 - Sat Aug 01 2020 01:19 PM

Satellite presentation looks like you can throw out all the models. It looks like, if I'm reading this correctly the motion is wnw moving off the west side of Andros which would put the storm aprox 50 miles to the sw of the track it is supposed to be on.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=su...orbar=undefined

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Owlguin
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #101114 - Sat Aug 01 2020 02:15 PM

It doesn't look very impressive on satellite currently.

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JMII
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #101115 - Sat Aug 01 2020 02:30 PM

As predicted the weaker storm is bending more westward. The shear is really taking its toll. There is almost no convection over the core and the center has expanded which has caused the winds to drop again. The outflow is minimal, the low level spin is there but the moisture engine appears be stuck in neutral. What we have here is a strong TS and barely a 'cane to me. For it to survive it needs to slow down and gather itself back up. Currently the environment doesn't seem to favor that. The warm water fuel is available but the Isaias is struggling to take advantage of it.

--------------------
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David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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IsoFlame
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #101116 - Sat Aug 01 2020 02:33 PM

Noticed that WNW too- even though the 2 pm advisory's coordinates were "steady as she goes" to the NW. Also Isaias circulation decoupled from deep convection, quite exposed to the southwest.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101118 - Sat Aug 01 2020 02:40 PM

Watching from SW Seminole County. Does he have enough left to regenerate over the warm Gulf stream waters and is he jogging a little west of the predicted path?

--------------------
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IsoFlame
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101119 - Sat Aug 01 2020 02:44 PM

Quote:

As predicted the weaker storm is bending more westward. The shear is really taking its toll. There is almost no convection over the core and the center has expanded which has caused the winds to drop again. The outflow is minimal, the low level spin is there but the moisture engine appears be stuck in neutral. What we have here is a strong TS and barely a 'cane to me. For it to survive it needs to slow down and gather itself back up. Currently the environment doesn't seem to favor that. The warm water fuel is available but the Isaias is struggling to take advantage of it.




Carl Parker (TWC) suggested there will be a window of opportunity for Isaias to strengthen some this evening and in the early morning hours when tracking over the deep/warm Gulf Stream water between the NW Bahamas and Southeast Florida when the diurnal cycle overnight enhancement of convection occurs.

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EMS
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101120 - Sat Aug 01 2020 02:47 PM

I saw the wobble west but appears to be just that as a more northerly component has resumed. Overall trend still on track - but a couple more wobbles west will make an East Coast Florida landfall more likely. That said seems like all the worst weather displaced well to east.

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JMII
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #101122 - Sat Aug 01 2020 04:51 PM

The NHC should downgrade to TS status at 5PM, this thing is a mess. The system has become completely decoupled. In the NE quad some towers are popping up and the dry air wall is finally showing sign of cracking. However Isaias has become a shell of its former self. At this point its doing a reboot and must restart from scratch. The low level circulation is completely exposed and has started moving NNW. Pretty incredible to have a storm so close yet it be so dry, there are just no feeder bands to speak of. Its a tough little thing... just refusing to die.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101125 - Sat Aug 01 2020 06:07 PM

As I forecasted, there is explosive convection in the NE quadrant now that Isaias is under the influence of the Gulf Stream.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

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Prospero
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101126 - Sat Aug 01 2020 06:37 PM

Took a nap around noon and it seemed to die. Went to grab some dinner and it appears to be blowing up.

--------------------
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OrlandoDan
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101127 - Sat Aug 01 2020 06:42 PM

Let us all keep a cautious eye on this potential sleeper. He is exploding in the NE Quad and he seems to be veering a little west, but not much. Care, caution, and calm diligence is in order and we should react only when warranted.

--------------------
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JMII
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101128 - Sat Aug 01 2020 06:50 PM

The explosion of energy is impressive but can it wrap up? It almost looks like the center is trying to reform under the CDO off to the NE of its 5PM position. Based on radar its moving NE now. Might put Freeport in the crosshairs instead of Bimini. Very interesting to see the dynamics of this little storm. Got a long night ahead of us here.

--------------------
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David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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doug
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101130 - Sat Aug 01 2020 07:13 PM

Yes a very interesting radar picture. I agree that something is happening in the NE quadrant. .

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doug


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Prospero
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #101131 - Sat Aug 01 2020 07:23 PM

Quote:

Yes a very interesting radar picture. I agree that something is happening in the NE quadrant. .



Can see it in the latest IR as well.

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JMII
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101132 - Sat Aug 01 2020 07:57 PM

Per the 8PM update the shear must be pretty bad as that strong circulation off to the NE seen on radar is not the low pressure center... sure had me fooled. So the TS is still on track moving NW heading towards Bimini. We are losing the visible sat image so its all radar and IR from here on out.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101133 - Sat Aug 01 2020 08:00 PM

Agreed the sheer is taking a toll, but the fact that there is explosive convection in the NE quad is evidence that Isaias is not dead.

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

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Prospero
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101135 - Sat Aug 01 2020 08:23 PM

Quote:

... that strong circulation off to the NE seen on radar is not the low pressure center... sure had me fooled.



It sure is being persistent. Seems like it should just spin out, but keeps on spinning. For the moment anyway.

--------------------
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mikethewreck
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101138 - Sat Aug 01 2020 09:24 PM

Looks like a decoupling between the low level center and another spin setting up further east. Look at it on radar (Bahamas and Miami), I think I can see two different vortices.

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
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Kraig
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: mikethewreck]
      #101139 - Sat Aug 01 2020 10:29 PM

Based on the radar images, looks like it has almost stalled with a little drift towards the ENE...

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2021 forecast 18-10-5; 18-7-4 as of 9/26

South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)


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BillD
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #101140 - Sat Aug 01 2020 10:47 PM

Recon was just in there and reported six center fixes all clustered in a small area. The last two were a little north and east of some of the others. If anything it appears to be drifting. This is one odd storm.

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JMII
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: mikethewreck]
      #101141 - Sat Aug 01 2020 11:19 PM

Quote:

Looks like a decoupling between the low level center and another spin setting up further east. Look at it on radar (Bahamas and Miami), I think I can see two different vortices.




Its been like that since 5PM... crazy huh? Somehow that 2nd spin to the NE, which contains all the moisture, has managed to stay alive and not fizzle out. The main rotation around the true low pressure center is barely moving. Its so broad that the wind speed can't increase. Per the water vapor loop its finally pushed all the dry air out and starting to generate outflow again. However if it can't draw moisture in and shrink the core the winds will not increase.


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JMII
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101146 - Sun Aug 02 2020 08:57 AM

The shear continues to keep Isaias completely in check, it can't wrap up. The moisture envelope is actually expanding but the feeder band inflow is too weak to provide any power. The thunderstorms rise up only to be cut down before they can get embedded into any rotational pattern. Thus the pressure never drops leaving the winds too weak to draw in more fuel. So the storm can't consolidate any of the available moisture from the Gulf Stream. The pattern from the last 48 hours has remained - all the strong weather is in the NE quad where it spins off without ever getting draw into the core. Freeport is in the worse of it right now and the wind is only 30 with gusts to 45 MPH.

I guess at some point the center might get close enough to the FL coast that some of those stronger bits could come ashore but even then your looking at TS gusts at the most. What we have here is just a blob of clouds with patches of heavy rain and no real organization which would lead to strengthening. The dry air continues limit outflow so the whole thing can't vent properly. Its a zombie... a dead storm that continues on its forecast path dragging its broken limbs along the ground behind it.

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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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GeorgeN
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101148 - Sun Aug 02 2020 10:15 AM

Radar is starting to show cast off bands moving across the state now. Will probabaly start raining in my area around 1pm as the humidity and temp rises. I'm wondering how they are tracking this storm. No spin, breaking apart and it appears to be drifting more than moving on it's own.

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Wesley Chapel FL


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: GeorgeN]
      #101150 - Sun Aug 02 2020 10:46 AM

Isaias continues to generate quick and massive convection.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

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JMII
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Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101151 - Sun Aug 02 2020 11:44 AM

It looks impressive on the satellite but the radar tells a different story. None of that energy ever wraps around the low pressure center. You can watch these strong cells build up, start rotating, then spin themselves out like a car taking a corner too quickly. Its almost like there is an invisible net that is catching all the rain resulting in Isaias being just 1/2 a storm.

Small, quick moving squalls are coming ashore from the Cape up to Daytona. As the storm continues to track NNW points further north along the coast will encounter rain bands.

The center of Isaias is dry and not very windy at all so I'd monitor these radars loops for a better idea on localized tropical effects.
https://www.weather.gov/mlb/
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions


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