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Archives 2010s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Hurricane Laura Lounge
      #101167 - Tue Aug 18 2020 04:01 PM


Visible image of 98L at 1745z on August 18, 2020

Invest 98L is a large, sprawling, monsoon-like depression, and as such, may be slow to get named, but then far more able to fend off attacks of any dry air, shear and land interaction down the road.

Initial model forecasts strongly suggest Florida may be in a direct threat, and this looks reasonable, but there is still a lot of time between now and when the system, possibly then a strong tropical storm if not a formidable hurricane, would be at that longitude.


As of 11PM ET August 19, Invest 98L is now a Tropical Depression, the thirteenth of the very active 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the title has been updated accordingly.

THIRTEEN is producing winds to tropical storm force and the title has been updated accordingly.


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Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 25 2020 08:39 PM)


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craigm
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101169 - Tue Aug 18 2020 04:48 PM

Looks like Laura is clearing her throat this afternoon -not quite there yet at the mid levels.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101170 - Tue Aug 18 2020 08:56 PM

Not quite ready to do model run downs on this one yet, but very mixed signals, Euro and GFS not liking this, although the GFS changed its tune at 18Z. 18Z HWRF bombs this thing out to major status in the Bahamas at the end of its run. I think the bigger models are having issues with the double center nature of the 98L blob right now, but I suspect tomorrow will iron this out.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101171 - Tue Aug 18 2020 10:10 PM

0z early models shifted a bit right, TVCN, and intensity models now showing a hurricane in the future, so I'd suspect some changes tomorrow.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101172 - Wed Aug 19 2020 07:54 AM

TVCN moved back over land (PR, DR, Haiti and Cuba), GFS and Euro still don't have a good handle on it, and 6z HWRF moves it over Puerto Rico. 98L is still too disorganized to really make the model runs worth it, particularly since land interaction issues make it a bit scrambled.

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doug
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101174 - Wed Aug 19 2020 10:06 AM

Models will not get this one until it develops a dominant LLC.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #101176 - Wed Aug 19 2020 12:15 PM

I'd expect advisories to begin at 5PM for 98L, not sure if it'll be a depression or a "PTC", but either way there should be advisories.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101178 - Wed Aug 19 2020 03:38 PM

98L has continued its consolidation process that began slowly overnight and has picked up throughout the day, and a depression appears to be forming. Advisories on a numbered TC or PTC by 5 or 11 seems almost certain.

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Prospero
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101179 - Wed Aug 19 2020 06:45 PM

I wonder if the major models will amp up once called. Seems strange 98L does not appear to be in their focus at all.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101180 - Wed Aug 19 2020 08:21 PM

There are reliable globals that do develop either or both 98L and 97L, unlike the ECMWF and GFS. Given that the preponderance of the models sans EURO - GFS - and their member ensembles - do cook eitiher or both 97L and 98L up this week, it's even harder to deny what our own eyes see, and strongly lean to tossing out the two top-tier globals (ECMWF and GFS) and most of their individusal members members until they latch on to reality.

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Prospero
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101181 - Wed Aug 19 2020 08:36 PM

It's worth paying attention to here in Florida. It's already Wednesday evening and usually the cones are up before five days. If this becomes a Monday event, a lot of people will be taken by surprise.



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NewWatcher
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101182 - Wed Aug 19 2020 08:42 PM

The models are not getting all the pertinent information this year because ships and airplanes are not traversing the areas to give reports, this in turn makes the models less reliable.Once Recon goes in, they should get better, especially if and when we get the upper air data.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: NewWatcher]
      #101183 - Wed Aug 19 2020 10:34 PM

TD#13 at 11PM, watches probably for some of the islands.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101184 - Thu Aug 20 2020 12:37 AM

Ok some 0z models:

euro not out yet

0z GFS rides along the caribbean islands, landfalls in Central Louisiana on a week from thursday, cat 2

0z Canadian stays north of the Caribbean islands goes over southern Bahamas, as a cat 1, cat 2 landfall near Boca Raton late Monday night, then stays inland up through Florida.

0z Icon rides along islands, cat 2 landfall near Morgan City, LA a week from Thursday.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101185 - Thu Aug 20 2020 06:59 AM

Morning model runs,

6z GFS, keeps it JUST north of the Caribbean islands, moves it into the Turks and Caicos on Sunday morning, starting to get stronger, just south of Andros Island Monday morning, Cat 1/2 hurricane, landfall late Tuesday night near Largo or Homestead, strong Cat 2. Exits into the Gulf over Naples tuesday morning, then cat 3 landfall near alligator point in the Florida Panhandle midday Wednesday.

6z Icon keeps it north of the islands and south of the Bahamas, landfall middle keys as a tropical Storm Monday night, then enters the gulf where the run ends for the 6z Icon.

0z Hwrf (6z not finished yet) goes over the Virgin Islands as a depression or storm, but stays north of Puerto Rico. Manages to avoid Hispaniola to the north, over Inagua island as a hurricane on midday Sunday, passes just south of Key west on Monday evening as a major hurricane, then enters the gulf, still strengthening, run ends here.

0z hmon stays off the Caribbean islands, but moves over Crooked Island in the Bahamas Sunday afternoon as a hurricane, crosses the southernmost tip of Andros island on Monday morning as a major hurricane, then landfall in Key Largo as a cat 3/4 hurricane Monday afternoon, exits into the Gulf near Everglades City, then restrengthens in the Gulf, where the run ends.

0z Euro keeps it north of the islands, weak


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101186 - Thu Aug 20 2020 07:44 AM

6z HMON avoids Caribbean islands to the north, over andros as a Cat 2/3 midday Monday, landfall Cat 3 downtown Miami, Late Monday night, crosses Florida, and ends the run directly over Tampa Bay as a Cat 2.

6Z HWRF slides through the Bahamas, and landfalls near Melbourne,FL Monday night as a cat 3.

GFS Ensembles:




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JMII
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #101187 - Thu Aug 20 2020 09:07 AM

Quote:

Models will not get this one until it develops a dominant LLC.




Yeah I don't put much stock in these early model runs. Of course I'll watch it but current guidance is all over the place, from a complete miss of FL to a Cat 3 on my doorstep.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101189 - Thu Aug 20 2020 12:23 PM

12Z GFS, keeps the system very weak (but strengthens TD#14). Landfall near Largo Late Monday as a weak wave or TD.

12Z Icon shoots the Florida straits and then landfalls near Alligator Point in the Big Bend as a cat 2/3 Wednesday night.

12Z Canadian cat 1/2 landfall near Homestead Monday Afternoon, then Mexico beach landfall on Early Wednesday as a cat 1/2.

12Z HWRF, over turks Caicos, cat 2 on Sunday midday, cat 2/3 over Crooked Island Sunday afternoon, over Great Exuma Saturday night, cat 2/3, over Andros Island early Monday, cat 3. Landfall, downtown Miami Cat 4 Midday Monday. Cat 1/2 over Tampa Tuesday Morning, ends run back in the Gulf as a cat 2.

12Z HMON Avoid direct landfall will all but the northern Tip of Andros, on Monday morning, as a cat 2. Landfall Cat 3 Midday Monday near Boca Raton, Just north of Tampa, Cat 1, By Tuesday morning, then exits briefly in the Gulf by Cedar Key, before another landfall in the Big Bend.

12Z Euro doesn't do much with TD13, wave crosses the keys Monday morning, not strong. Then landfall near Pensacola sill very week Wednesday. It does send TD14 toward Galveston as a Tropical storm, however.

GFS Ensembles:






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scottsvb
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101190 - Thu Aug 20 2020 06:02 PM

as of 6pm... LLC is around 17.4N and 54.7W moving WNW..

Looking at the 18Z GFS... it has it moving almost due west for next 18hours.. and is already SW of the actual low. NHC did mention the swirl but I believe is the LLC. GFS might adjust at 0Z or forsure by 12Z tomorrow but we will see where exactly this is by morning..probably be already around 18.5N and 58W my guess by Friday 11am.


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MichaelA
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #101191 - Thu Aug 20 2020 08:53 PM

Looking at floater imagery, 13 is a hot mess. I’m seeing what may be multiple, short lived, low level mesoscale vortices. Development is going to be slower than forecast. That may affect the long term intensity and track guidance. I don’t expect much change to the 11 PM package. The 5 AM package tomorrow morning may be more telling.

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Michael

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