Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


T.D. Pamela sending abundant moisture into TX and OK w flooding rains likely as well as severe Tstorms and tornadoes possible.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 33 (Nicholas) , Major: 48 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1102 (Michael) Major: 1102 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101193 - Thu Aug 20 2020 10:02 PM

I don't see anything much changing with this until around Saturday night.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 375
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101194 - Thu Aug 20 2020 10:40 PM

I am a bit worried about a possible fast ramp-up starting Saturday when it gets into more favorable conditions...if it retains most of its forward speed, that would really shorten prep time here in Central Florida! People are pretty distracted by the beginning of schools right now, too!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101195 - Fri Aug 21 2020 05:30 AM

0z model summary:

0zGFS 13 Goes through the NE Islands, clips by Puerto Rico on the Northeast side tomorrow around noon, critical time is Saturday evening, weak over Key West midday Monday, then weak into Panama City Tuesday afternoon/evening. (TD#14 moves into Western Louisiana weak, but stronger than TD13)

0z Canadian keeps it north of the Caribbean islands, starts to strengthen northwest of Puerto Rico, Cat 1 landfall near the middle Keys Midday Monday, cat 2 landfall near Panama City, FL on Wednesday morning. While it does nothing with TD14, and it falls apart.

0z Icon, lots of land interaction, keeping it weak all the way into the Gulf. TD14 remains weak into Louisiana also, falling apart as it approaches.

0z HWRF keeps the northern part of TD13 the most active, firing it up northwest of Puerto Rico tomorrow night. Landfall Key West Midday Monday as a cat 3 or 4, then ends the run as a cat 4 on approach to Mobile, AL.

0z HMON keeps it disorganized and moves over the greater Antilles, eventually goes into Southeast Louisiana as a weak wave.

0z UKMET rides along the Antilles and Cuba, keeping it generally weak.

0z Euro is a little stronger than prior runs, but not by much, still opens it up into the Gulf with an eventual wave into Mobile,AL Tuesday night. TD14 goes into Texas near freeport Tuesday afternoon/evening, as a weaker system/TS.

For 13 there seems to be more open possibilities, so it'll unfortunately mean we probably won't know too much until Saturday night or even Sunday. The Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas area range from generally favorable to very good for development. In the shorter term a lot rides on where the center settles and if it is over the land in the islands or comfortably north of them. In the Gulf depends on if TD13 gets too close to 14. But yeah, it's pretty wide, the possibilities range from the system degenerating to an open wave as seen in the GFS and ECMWF to a major hurricane as seen in the HWRF.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2112
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101196 - Fri Aug 21 2020 07:44 AM

THIRTEEN has been skirting the line between open wave and tropical cyclone for the better part of 12 hours now. Recon is presently back in trying to confirm a closed circulation still exists. If it finds one, and indications are that one has possibly reformed, it might necessitate naming as winds to the north of the apparent 'center' are already blowing at tropical storm force. However, one important caveat being that these storm-force winds are likely more the result of the pressure gradient that exists with higher pressure to its north, as well as the forward speed of 13, within a fairly stout easterly jet.

Provided the low/wave/low/wave can come together at enough latitude to reduce or avoid interaction with mountainous islands, the upper bound of intensity forecasts look within the realm of possibility. Barring that, and especially if it is an island runner, the system may even struggle to become a hurricane ever, at all.

By this time tomorrow we should have a much better idea as to which of whether the weaker or stronger scenario is more likely. As of this morning, just too many variables and questions remain.

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2112
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101198 - Fri Aug 21 2020 08:31 AM

Recon has found a new center of circulation quite a bit south of the naked swirl being tracked last night (and used to extrapolate the current official location) in the southeastern portion of the deeper convection. A second circulation center may also exist to the south of that. Further center reformations are possible unless and until THIRTEEN pulls together, and until then, model runs will remain somewhat dubious.

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101199 - Fri Aug 21 2020 08:43 AM

13 is a real mess. The longer is stays disorganized the further west it will track so the threat to S FL gets lower. At this rate it could possible run smack into one of several land masses and dissipate. I'm taking the under bet on this one.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101201 - Fri Aug 21 2020 09:04 AM

that is not a good sign ...Consolidation of the system around the midlevel increases the possibility of the system creating a stacked vortex as it moves up the islands and leads to a stronger system.
Early data this morning suggests the system remains very disorganized..as long as it remains in its current configuration it may never consolidate. The next 24 hours should clarify the siruation

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Fri Aug 21 2020 09:11 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #101204 - Fri Aug 21 2020 10:43 AM

The overnight and morning satellite indicate a more robust system than what appeared yesterday. Now that it has achieved TS status with a better fix on a center, things should begin to gell into more consistent model runs. Waiting for the 11 AM advisory package, but the 5 PM package may be more telling.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 20/7/4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101207 - Fri Aug 21 2020 12:29 PM

Pressures are not falling much so center reformations are still possible further north again tonight. With pressures around the same.. a new LLC can reform anywhere as a new vortex as this has a few still. IDT the models have a good idea on what is happening until the system gets down to at least 1005mbs... stronger system will go more WNW.. I agree with GFS out to 48hours within 50 miles and expect another jump WNW of the current or reformation to around St Thomas by morning.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #101208 - Fri Aug 21 2020 12:29 PM

Btw .. Mike can you post the Radar for the Islands with timelapse.. . TY

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
EMS
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 52
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #101210 - Fri Aug 21 2020 12:57 PM

Important to note while the NHC position is far better for Florida now, there seems to be continued poor organization and multiple swirls, reminiscent of Isaias when it was in a similar spot. If you recall when Isaias got to Puerto Rico/Hispaniola the center reformed around a more northern mid level swirl and shifted the track north. Tomorrow night seems like the critical time in determining whether Florida falls back into the cone or not as the center should be around Hispaniola by then.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #101211 - Fri Aug 21 2020 01:11 PM

I think S Florida will... depends on how well organized it gets Saturday into Saturday night. A more organized system 1005mb or stronger will go more WNW... but usually these systems turn more NW earlier than at first forecasted.. it's expected to turn more NW once it gets close the the keys... a more organized system will turn NW just before and might go from just south of Miami-Key Largo NW along SW florida and out west of Ft Myers.. but again.. that's speculation in 3-4 days.
A honest upfront forecast is just go out 24 hours.. lets see how strong this is or really organized by Saturday morning once it gets to the US and British Virgin islands as it races near or north of PR Saturday.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #101213 - Fri Aug 21 2020 02:23 PM

Looks like Euro has a very strong ridge, so Laura moves into Hispaniola or at least N Cuba before exiting just south of the strats and into the open GOM via 72-96 hours... everything will depend by 12Z Saturday after we see how far N it gets in the next day or so and how organized Laura gets

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #101214 - Fri Aug 21 2020 02:44 PM

Totally agree. The 11 advisory tomorrow should reveal a lot. If the storm comes together better between now and then and intensification is occurring a more easterly track becomes more plausible.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #101215 - Fri Aug 21 2020 05:23 PM

Given Laura's poor organization and the revised track (further S and W) it will be sputtering over pretty much every large land mass in the Caribbean, thus I don't see how it can survive. Heck I have trouble believing its a TS now.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101216 - Fri Aug 21 2020 06:49 PM

With how in flux the center is, the models are still kinda useless other than general patterns, this goes for TD#14 also. I'm still waiting for tomorrow night.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101220 - Sat Aug 22 2020 08:03 AM

Neither system is well organized this morning. With that in mind, Laura’s future is pretty iffy. Will the interaction with the Greater Antilles cause it to dissipate (like the one a few years ago that dissipated near the Florida Straights) or will it do something similar to Isaias with a reformed center north of the islands? As usual, it’s a wait and see situation.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 20/7/4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 375
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101224 - Sat Aug 22 2020 10:23 AM

Tropical Tidbits also presented a scenario on yesterday's post where interaction with the land drags the low level circulation back to the mid level, allowing the system to better stack vertically and strengthening it a bit. This will be in interesting trip for Laura to take. A lot of data to be acquired for the models.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #101225 - Sat Aug 22 2020 11:02 AM

IDK what they are seeing at the NHC but Laura is NOT at 17.8N and 66.8W 20 miles SW of Ponce... it's clearly at 18.7N and 65.5W or about 50 miles NW of San Juan heading WNW... you can clearly see on radar the low level bands and flow on the north side of PR moving slightly from the west while just NE of there moving from the SE and just west of the LLC moving NE. Also surface obs have SW winds west of San Juan but light..IDS what they are seeing near ponce and we all see the midlevel low further south. Models show nothing on the midlevel coming to the surface but it might once it crashes into Hispaniola tonight.. it might then get to the surface and ride thru Cuba or the LLC of Laura (if she is where I think the HWRF thinks will stay near or just north of Cuba.. but 90% of the energy is with the MLC. Hard to win and get pressure drops when your energy is 150 Miles SE of you.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 375
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #101226 - Sat Aug 22 2020 11:33 AM

Thanks for the observations....those problems are the main reason I do NOT trust the NHC track right now. But the local Mets are acting like it isn't a threat to central Florida anymore. Until it clears Haiti and/or forms a defined COC, I don't think the models have a solid grasp on this thing. With the very warm water ahead of it, now is far too soon for the locals to say things that would encourage people to drop their guard....
Am I way off base here??

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., Atricks, danielw, Clark, Christine H, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort, Jackie M, Wigeon, Hank Buck 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 34766

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center