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90L's remnants are now inland, nothing developed. A generally quiet Atlantic is likely until later in August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 277 (Zeta) , Major: 339 (Laura) Florida - Any: 1026 (Michael) Major: 1026 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #101232 - Sat Aug 22 2020 11:59 AM

12Z GFS handles LAURA better after 12 hours.. first 12 though I feel is displaced SW where the NHC has her.. but I think it's more NE of there.. we will see as the afternoon and evening come along with the next recon.. wish it was in there earlier. GFS thus takes Laura near Key West and Dry Tortugas as a stronger Tropical Storm.. but if it does stay more offshore Cuba.. Laura has the potential to get a hurricane...but again.. any deviation to the south will keep this weak thru Cuba. 12Z Euro and HWRF will be interesting.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #101234 - Sat Aug 22 2020 12:01 PM

I think an east coast hit is much much less likely, but a gulf surprise isn't. This thing is going to change daily with the two systems.

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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101235 - Sat Aug 22 2020 12:24 PM

Pasch has it still 17.8 and 67.2 now.. sat has 45mph... was updated at noon.. still I think they are using 1 of many vortexs.. main 1 is closer to now 19N 67W but broad lacking TStorms

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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #101237 - Sat Aug 22 2020 12:29 PM

Laura is getting some convection and outflow going but I'll be darned if I can't find the center. I think its even further south the NHC has it. With each cone update the NHC has moved it further south. For example the Thurs 5PM advisory had it forecast to be nearly 110 miles N of its current position. Its got the same problem Isaias had with multiple spins none of which are stacked over the surface low. The weather stations I've checked in PR indicate a weak storm, the strongest winds are well displaced to the east. Once again on its current track (if even remotely accurate) it will be over land for the next 48 hours. This seems like an impossible to survive scenario.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101239 - Sat Aug 22 2020 01:23 PM


Tropical Storm Laura base map from Wunderground.com (IBM)

At 1200 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 NHC has Laura's center located at 17.8N 67.2W or about 40 miles to the WSW of Ponce, PR (denoted by the red "L" on the map above). However, the most recent surface and ship obs strongly suggest that the surface center is becoming much better aligned with the very healthy mid-level center. This mid-level circulation center has become obvious on radar. Based on surface obs I've drawn in a possible new surface center location "Unofficial LLC."

It is increasingly possible that Laura has reformed just south enough to bypass at least some direct island interaction, and is availing itself of the very warm waters of the Caribbean. Should this trend continue, Laura may indeed yet become a hurricane, albeit a good distance southwest of where it was originally forecast to do so.

Interests in the central to western Gulf of Mexico may want to begin paying much more attention to Laura, as the odds of not one, but possibly two landfalling significant tropical cyclones is going up.

This does not yet clear Florida. Tropical models seem to be struggling this year. They are lacking lots of flight data, and this is an especially unusual setup with two tropical cyclones in the western Atlantic so close to each other at the same time. As always, best to pay close attention to the NHC and local NWS for the most relevant, local and official weather information.

--------------------
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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101241 - Sat Aug 22 2020 02:49 PM

Radar - including velocity data - plus surface and ship obs, strongly suggest that a surface circulation center exists and is co-located with the vigorous mid-level circulation center (complete with an eye-like feature), and has just made landfall east of Ponce, PR.

Velocity data near the time of landfall were showing winds of about 60-70 mph at 1,500'



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101242 - Sat Aug 22 2020 03:12 PM

As a follow-up, it remains to be seen if this substantial mesolow pointed out in the two entries above takes over the entire system and becomes the dominant center. The last few frames of conventional satellite indicate a trend towards this outcome, but does not yet appear conclusive.

A center reformation to the northeast - and as of now right on top of Puerto Rico - tosses future track and intensity back into more complexity, as it could drive Laura over Hispaniola.

Time will tell. Exceptionally difficult track and intensity forecast here.

--------------------
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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101243 - Sat Aug 22 2020 03:13 PM

I still have it around 19.4N and 68.3W moving just north of west around 280dg.. but the MLC does have a reflection at the surface but I think it always has. .that is moving NW at a good clip now.. If that does come down to the surface.. it will be 6 hours behind model schedule and might end up being slightly further north unless it starts bending more W-WNW in the next few hours

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Owlguin
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #101245 - Sat Aug 22 2020 03:48 PM

Well, my totally untrained self will rely what I am seeing on radar, and that is that I agree with the posts above, the center of circulation is now over Western PR. I appears to me it will ride the northern coast of the DR.

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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101249 - Sat Aug 22 2020 08:35 PM

Quote:

A center reformation to the northeast - and as of now right on top of Puerto Rico - tosses future track and intensity back into more complexity, as it could drive Laura over Hispaniola.




This is a pretty dynamic situation, there are 2 or maybe 3 centers fighting to become Laura. The one that wins and its location will be critical to its future. The storm has developed a much more defined environment around it and outflow continues to improve. If she can punch down to the surface and find warm water it might survive. Current guidance has it tracking right down the middle of the land mass, which clearly would keep it very much in check, but just getting a few miles further north will allow some ocean heat to be draw in and she live to fight on.

Crazy that she is tracking into brother's Marco predicted landfall area too now. A few days ago this possibility seemed ridiculous.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101250 - Sat Aug 22 2020 09:28 PM

The jumpiness of Laura continues tonight. The very impressive mesolow from earlier today likely could have become the new dominant CoC given enough time, but ran into land.

Tonight, deep convection with very cold cloud tops are firing south of Hispaniola, and this is where the current recon mission is finding a renewed, dominant center, with a Vortex message possibly coming out for a location near 17.3N 69.4W, and roughly within the red circle seen in the image uploaded below.

It would seem that Laura is tracking west, or perhaps west-southwest, while now centered fairly south of the Dominican Republic.



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101251 - Sat Aug 22 2020 10:58 PM

Timely ASCAT pass from 0138z confirms surface center to the north of the mid-level center found by recon earlier, but likely not over land, and that is seen in the 11PM update from NHC.

Center jumps are going to remain possible if not likely unless and until Laura really can pull it together - tough to do while tracking along or either side of mountainous islands.

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IsoFlame
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101252 - Sun Aug 23 2020 07:25 AM

NHC 5am discussion: There has been a significant westward shift in the latest NHC model guidance, which appears to be due to most of the global models taking the center of Laura farther south over central or southern Hispaniola rather than emerging it off the north coast of Haiti like the GFS is and has been forecasting. Given that the most intense convection has persisted along the southern coast of Hispaniola, that is where the most likely area that a low-level and/or mid-level circulation is most probable to develop or persist.

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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101254 - Sun Aug 23 2020 09:04 AM

Laura has tracked south of guidance for her entire life so far. She is amazingly intact given the mountains she went by. I keep trying to write her off yet she is still chugging along. For storm originally forecast to reach the upper Keys we now have something that could hug the southern coast of Cuba before ramping up in the gulf. The models have been struggling with these two systems.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Keith B
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101257 - Sun Aug 23 2020 01:19 PM

My apologies if it applies on how I posted the below on Twitter. I am learning how to use Twitter and I removed the below question from Twitter.

Curious question. The update on the web page for 8/23 @ 0600, what was thinking in regards to a possible threat to W FL?

Thank you.
**
Quote:

It is now clear that Laura has the potential to be a large and major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and possibly make landfall as such. Interests from Texas to western Florida would be wise to pay very close attention to her forecast track, and begin making preparations to protect life and property if within her cone and watch/warning zones.




Hello Keith, and thanks for the question. I'm replying inside your post so that the thread doesn't become ASK/TELL (we have a separate forum for that). Short answer: while Laura is most likely to keep heading west of even far western Florida, it is not yet certain. However, and more probable, as Laura is a decent sized system, dangerous storm surge and rip currents may extend a good distance from her center, outer bands can produce severe thunderstorms with waterspouts/tornadoes, etc. Feel free to send me a direct message for more discussion.
Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Aug 23 2020 02:36 PM)


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IsoFlame
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101258 - Sun Aug 23 2020 02:08 PM

(1PM CDT advisory on Laura):LOCATION ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H

Yes, it is truly amazing that Laura has been able to strengthen a bit (let alone hold together) considering the center's nearly continuous interaction with significant terrain. The favorable mid/upper-level wind environment has greatly helped Laura and may allow a period of potentially rapid intensification in the southeast and central Gulf once clear of Cuba. Given the favorable parameters, perhaps the fast forward motion (over the islands) has helped limit the unfavorable friction of terrestrial interaction.

Edited by IsoFlame (Sun Aug 23 2020 02:18 PM)


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Prospero
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101259 - Sun Aug 23 2020 08:09 PM

Hmmm, the Main Page plots are not working for me.

I just posted a question about that and it did not take.

Is there a site issue?

Or am I losing my mind?

--------------------
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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101260 - Sun Aug 23 2020 08:36 PM

Parts of the site are working. I see the 8PM updates and graphics for both systems. However the links to some of the satellite loops are broken, the direct link is here: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/ Same goes for the SFWMD plots, which are here: https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101262 - Mon Aug 24 2020 07:37 AM

Recon is finding once again that Laura has been attempting to recenter over water. This time, Laura may not have had as much of a 'choice,' as the convection has been shunted a good deal south from an impinging ULH/ULL nose from her northeast.

IF this recenter over water finally takes, a noteworthy shift west in the track may be coming, along with a commensurate additional time over water, which would favor additional strengthening.

Several model runs favor major, and a few of the plausible regional runs are even reaching for Cat 4+

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101263 - Mon Aug 24 2020 10:25 AM

I normally ignore models when they are being influenced (read made wrong consistently) by land interaction, but the UKMet has shown the southerly/westerly route the most. So Galveston to about Cameron, I'd strongly considering doing preps today or leaving before the mad rush. We won't have a good idea until tomorrow morning when it clears Cuba, but by then you'll only have a little under 36 hours for prep work, which means it could be a zoo in the more urban areas if it winds up that way.

The other part with the slight south fix, is more time over water, which means the higher end intensity seems more likely. Also surge may be dramatic with this storm, especially if it ramps up well before landfall. (The momentum is the key there)


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