wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Interesting hypothesis...
Looked over the surface plot and couldn't find anything, so I went to my favorite source of surface data, the WSR-88D...specifically the Miami and Tampa sites...and if you look closely you can see what appears to be a small circulation cross across Florida, exiting into the Gulf near St Pete on a vector of about 290 or so at about 01z or so this evening...unfortunately sunset wasn't kind, but the feature does show up on the last few visible's, although without any significant defination.
Interesting hypothesis, but one little fly in the ointment...if it WAS a LLC, then it was HAULING in the embedded easterly flow...(unless I am seeing something different)...the motion looked awfully fast for it to be any real problem...but I did notice a decrease in convection with a general increase in it's wake...
Might want to shoot an e-mail to Tony C or Jack B....
JK
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Jason Kelley
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I was looking at a close up of Cuba and I think I see some indication of a circulation starting right off the NW tip of Cuba. Could someone take a look at this and post what you see? I could be just seeing things because of my impatience with wanting our first tropical system of the season.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I see what you are referring to, but I don't think it is an indication of circulation...it only appears in the last 2 frames (on the loop I am looking at NASAGHCC), so it COULD be, but my gut says no (and I'm looking at it on infrared, which is the wrong way to look at it anyway...best imagery for identifying those initial circulations is visible....won't have that til morning!)
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Jason Kelley
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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The following is the link from which I spotted the circulation, or what appears to be a circulation forming. When you get on this link just click on the animation of the satellite and maybe you can see what I THINK I see.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/hurricane/satellite.asp?ocean=atlantic&thisreg=FLS&type=&sattype=ir
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I see what you are referring to, but it's really inconclusive if there is a circulation there...it COULD be, but it just as easily might not be...first look at visibles in the morning will be more conclusive.
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Jason Kelley
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Various areas between Panama City and Morgan City will get flooding rains in the next 2 days. The last RUC and ETAs that I could find form a low in the NE Gulf in the 12-24 hour period. With all of the associated deep tropical moisture in place and daytime heating to kick-start action along the coast, there will be some big storms with heavy rains and probably some training. Last time we had a moisture setup kinda' similar to this was about 2 weeks ago when the ULL was taking over the NC Gulf. It eventually smacked Texas, but there were many places between Miami and New Iberia that had storm totals well over 10". Most everyone got at least 4-5" during that week.
The lowest future pressure I could find on any of the other models puts the NE Gulf low at 1013 mb. But for whatever reason it seems to me that rainfall totals are under-estimated when there is weak low pressure above 25N. But I can see any given site easily getting a 5-6" rainfall day out of this. My best bet for tomorrow is somewhere between Pensacola and Waveland. I guess we'll see.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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aright 95L has sped up and is now about six to eight hours from going ashore. still no concentrated convection, no intensification. for the life of me i cant understand why this system never got organized, but there it is, just a goofy little elongated low windmilling towards the brownsville area.
cant really make any sense of the system around florida. never saw that swirl you guys were talking about.. must have been some mid level mcc feature. there is still some convection persisting over the eastern gulf now.. still the odd models wanting a low to be there. broad and disorganized like 95L, confidence low. there is some weak upper ridging in the area, but this is a start from scratch situation... it would take a big convective mass a while to get the pressure falls and such going.
anyhow, dont see a system this week now that 95L has gone cold. maybe late july after all.. maybe later.
HanKFranK aiken sc 0556z09july
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Matthew
Unregistered
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I was looking at the so call D scale and the Eastern pacific system has a 2.0 that tropical storm. As for are low no chance in less the thunderstorms reform. As for the system northwest cuba there might be a spin. tropics look some what boring and atlantic elseware not word might be wrong. No forecast in the western pacific this time.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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yep, 95L has pretty much fallen apart again overnight, and is only a few more hours away from the coast. Therefore, i dont expect to see much happen with this system now, and the recon flight will probably be cancelled by this morning.
As for the Florida system, i too did not get chance to see the apparent LLCC cross the peninsula. However, as some models indicate a low developing, and the abundance of convective activity in the general region, this could be the area that sees our next uneventful and disorganised disturbance develop...
Interesting that in the past week we have had 3 or 4 features that have shown a good shot at trying to kick off, but for some reason none of them have quite made the grade... there is just something missing from the equation at the moment, but once all the ingredients are there, get ready for a bumpy ride!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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System in western GOM is running out of time and convection this morning and probably will be a non event... at best, from a climatological viewpoint, the system had only a one in five chance of development... (only 20 named storms since 1886 during the first 10 days of July)
Perhaps the only game in town for the next couple of days will be in eastern GOM. Latest IR shows some perky convection in the eastern GOM and FL straits.... Vis loops do not indicate any rotation to the system ... Observations from the data buoys show relatively high pressure in the eastern GOM and FL straits as well... Additionally I could find no low pressures over the state of Florida either.... so nothing is happening fast or going to happen fast ... probability of something developing IMO less than 15% at the moment, but nevertheless, something to watch...
Only the model this morning shows a weak low forming (1008-1012 mb) in the northern GOM off the mouth of the MS river in 120 hours... I could find none of the other models jumping on this system... yet
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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FWIW, the Penn State 15 km Tropical run was doing the same thing in nearly the same location last night. (Closed low centered S of the Miss River)
(Added) and actually does it today as well on the 00Z run from last night...parks it just south of the mouth and deepens it for about 72 hours with no definative motion to speak of (would be a HEAVY rain even from NO to MOB)
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Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Tue Jul 09 2002 09:27 AM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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http://hurricane.essc.psu.edu/
Penn State model also projects a weak low pressure system off the mouth of the MS river with pressures down to about 1004 in central LA/MS in about 120 hours.. If this come to fruition then Steve and I should expect some significant rain in the next couple of days... Now, do you believe in models?
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Jason, I live west of Tampa in Pinellas County. Do you expect this to be a heavy rainmaker for his area? 120 hours out from Miss. river sure seems like a lot of time just off the coast here.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Generally don't like to make that kind of call until a low at least FORMS (lol), but if the , et al, verify, then I'd think it would be a rough boating weekend, but you'd be pretty far away from the center, and might very well be in the fringe subsidence and have a beautiful weekend....it will depend on storm location and track (if it forms at all...which isn't at this point likely)
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Jason Kelley
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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If ETA pans out west central may in for some heavy come wed/thu. ETA also spins low in western and moves it nnw toward florida panhandle region. While AVN is not as impressive with low level development. I'am staying near AVN for now but will keep a close eye on future model runs.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>Another broad area of low pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness...showers and scattered thunderstorms that extend Eastward across the Florida Peninsula. While surface pressures are high...upper-level winds are marginally favorable and some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days as it drifts slowly west or nothwestward.
That was the legible (NON CAPS) version from this morning's TPC outlook. I had initially assumed that any massing convection would put storms further to the north than where they are, so my prediction for some flooding rains might be a day or two early. Coastal SW LA has been under some training bands all morning, but I haven't checked the rainfall rates down there yet since this is my first day back to work since last Tuesday and I'm swamped.
If there is a 120 hour low off the mouth, I'm wondering if this isn't a trof split with the soon to be descending trof coming out of the NE or if this is the system that we're looking at now or a solution factoring in both.
At least things will be interesting up here over the next few days. Btw, cloudy and low 80's so far today. I'll take that.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous-(Doug)
Unregistered
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The sattelite and radar suggests that a low (whether surface or not I cannot tell) in the eastern Gulf is now about 150-175 miles west of Naples (wnw of Key West)...it is very broad and elongated NNW-SSE...it was evident yesterday about 50-75 miles west of Key West...but it has not deepened much obviously in that time and only drifted about 100 miles wnw...the radar suggsts heavier rain in the vicinity of the low on the eastern side, at least compared to yesterday...the WV suggests conditions NOT favorable to rapid development as there is poor evacuation possibility NE of this system and a trough is digging down to the coast north and NE...Looks like lots of rain to me as it drifts around out there... EDS>
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Latest GOES-8 IR has an explosion of convection developing in the eastern GOM.... very impressive, but will it last?
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Obviously have to wait to see if any pressure drop but man it looks impressive. Just had a storm move thru here in Pinellas County moving Souhteast to Northwest with some very strong winds and heavy rain. I've been telling a couple friends since the storms came rolling thru yesterday afternoon that these aren't the usual summer Florida storms. Something very erie about the sky, clouds, wind direction, etc.... Last 2 days there has been no West Coast seabreeze which is very unusual in the summer. We shall see.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Doug, I agree with you on the rotation... latest vis sat loop certainly appears to indicate a BROAD counter clockwise rotation NNW-SSE at least in the mid levels... Pressures from the buoys still remain relatively high this afternoon.. One buoy in the area reported wind gusts of 27k in the past hour or so....
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