Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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So did I speak to soon on broad low pressure in eastern gulf? Convection looks very impressive with a notable rotation. Although looked at some buoys in eastern gulf a none show any real lowering of pressures at this time. I think there may be some slow development the next few days.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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wasnt 95L ridiculous? say what you like about probabilities of a system this time of year, but to me it looked set up. anyhow it's pushed ashore and no news. most of its convection is going across extreme south texas, where it wont be quite the bother it would be in the hill country. for a few hrs now surface obs in the eastern gulf are suggesting that a low is a beam of tampa around 85w. lowest pressures are only about 1017-1018mb. only positive to this area is that there is a lot of convection, and the signature is healthy. right now the outlook says pretty much everything there is to say about this area.
it has a long way to go.
away to the east there is some little mentioned wave convection north of puerto rico. that should be arriving near florida around the time the easterlies slow to a crawl due to the upcoming eastern trough this week.
ya know i was SURE we'd have a system today. goes to show how finicky tropical systems are. and how easily convinced i am.
HF aikenSC 1837z09july
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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well i'll be. invest 96L at 27.3/85.8, d1.0 as of 1745z. we get a new one about every other day now it seems.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://www.tnrcc.state.tx.us/updated/air/monops/data/satellite/GULF/vis/latest.vis.jpeg
Here's the high-res of 96.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous-Doug
Unregistered
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I actually like the chances of 96L to develop...the latest visible actually shows the center, I think, and it is in the midst of the cloud mass...this signature is confirmed on the IR4 and IR2, and on radar there is no doubt a more closed circulation...there is a definite west componet to the movement of the rain on the south side, and the actual overcast is enlarging somewhat..lots of thunderstorms on radar...a depression tomorrow, IMO.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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96L ah... well is it going to go the same way as numbers 90 to 95?? who knows! Certainly has a good signatue, and it will be interesting to see if have anything more to say on it in the 530pm update...
95L is now inland, heading NW. That one got me! I was sure it would develop, as was many other people, but for some reason it just did not get going. So before i make any predictions on 96L it is gonna have to show it might be a more determined system!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Doug...I just looked at that and I have to say that I am seeing the same thing you are seeing. They mentioned it here this morning on the local wx and also the WC talked about it also. I looked at the page and didn't see 96L there yet. Is that where you found it? I will go with you on the movement as I really can't tell since it just seemed to have blossomed all of the sudden this afternoon. Huge amounts of oranges and reds in the t-storms also. The rain we got here in C. Florida today looked more tropical in nature than that of your regular afternoon seabreeze. Will be interesting to see what happens with it. Also...one more thing before I forget...the Storm Visibles (Is that the right phrase for it? LOL) that's updated every 1/2 hour is focusing on this also. So I would say they are a little interested in it also. Have not checked buoy data yet, or any other information.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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colleen and anyone else who cares, the ratings are on an ssd (satelite services division) page. the way i understand it, ssd and both do ratings on the systems.. i'm not sure which is which, usually they are the same but sometimes come out different.
the d-ratings can be found at:
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/position.html
they are run every six hours, right before the 00Z,06z,12z and 18Z times.
the names for the systems given do not match what you will find on the page, i guess they restart the numbers every month at ssd. that is why the system we are calling 96L is shown as 93L. why they use numbers in the 90s i have no idea. if i was running the show theyd both have the same name and start with invest 01.. but it isnt my bureaucracy.
as for the system, it still has a confused unfocused look to it. SFC obs arent suggesting a low any more, and to me it looks elongated NW-SE, with more happening back SE than earlier.
95L is inland and looking better than ever! that would be the classic weak system landfall in texas, of course. the seabreeze front it dragged with it is going to drench parts of texas, maybe those that would rather not have it.
HanKFranK aikenSC 2147z09july
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Thanks for that info! I've bookmarked for future use. I don't know what's going to happen with that system in the E.Gulf ...it could die out or it could blossom.
One thing I do know is that the more I watch these things, the more I learn. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Looks like we may have someting here. There appears to be good banding feature on western side of this system. I do think will have are first depression tomorrow or thu. Heavy wx here with numerous waterspouts and tornado!
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Dude, I was saying the same thing to my wife Last night when we got those t-storms. It was weird, because they where coming in bands almost like a tropical system . Of course we do have a tropical wave sitting ontop of us ! Then today at work about 4:30 p. m. I was on a test drive at work and I kept noticing how the clouds over the gulf looked very strange.......... Stranger than normal !!! Then cruzin home, the weather radio in my truck goes off about 5:16 Tornado Warning for southern Pinellas . GEEZ Heading right for it too !!!!!!...Any hoo, some stuff brewing down south too with ridging building . We will have to keep an eye on it . LATER ! ....
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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About the same here. Lots of hovering low clouds mixed in and around stratus and building cumulus. When I left the house at 5:15, I looked out west of the airport and saw a MASSIVE anvil cloud with lightning running all through it and even cracking off into the deep blue sky next to it. It was a textbook storm - wish I would have had a camera with me.
We didn't get any rain in town today. It looked for most of the day like all the rainclouds were south of the city. It's a little breezy out of the east.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Sure looks like it wants to form doesn't it! It's suppose to be heading NW. How certain is that. Don't need it to stall over s. Florida!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Earlier today I gave our little tease in the eastern GOM about a 15% chance of developing.... It's managed to hang around most of today with some good convection, although it does appear that the convection is somewhat on the decline tonight... it might be trying to redevelop its broad center off more to the southeastern GOM... but this is just a SWAG I might add
I'll up my probability to say 20-25% possible development into a TD by tomorrow or Thursday based on its overall perfromance and persistence from today... and the obserations from the good people of Florida who have been experiencing some of the effects of the system and have posted accordingly...
However, the system is still lacking any significant pressure falls... lowest I could find in the area was 1016.4 mb... Based on what's happen so far this season there have been several systems that we thought might get cranking but for a plethora of reasons never did... this certainly may pan out to be another one.... time will tell...
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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The local weather guys here said that the system in the eastern gulf would not have an effect on us because it would turn more towards the NW over time. Is that a safe bet or could this thing still be able to make it all the way to the upper Texas coast?
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CaneMAn
Unregistered
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Well, I guess it's dead now. According to Steve Lyons the shear to the North of itstopped the convection from wrapping around and has opened it up into a trough. Boy this is getting frustrating. Rad and Joe - I guess we had something like 5 waterspouts and a tornado right around rush hour. Man was that sky ominous or what.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I just finished looking at the IR-4 ifrared loop and it looks Steve Lyon's eyes could be playing tricks on him. Reasons:
1. Convection is dying on the western band of the system, giving this system the appearance that it is being pulled apart. This is just the way it looks. If convection was to reform here, I'm sure Steve Lyons wouldn't be saying this.
2.NHC said the environment was "favorable" for development. At this time I don't really see any major clouds blowing off to the east of the system.
3.If you look very, very closely into the center, you can see a very small circulation inside of the system. If this feature were to experience a lowering of heights, it would easily pull the convection back into itself, if this is the case.
4.The report came from , okay? I wouldn't rely on anything they say. This area is only in it's developing stages and will likely experience such things.
Time will tell.
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Yea Cane, I was heading home from work , stopped and got 12 cold ones , going south down gulf blvd , The sky was wicked black towards the skyway, and across the gulf to the northwest. About that time the weather radio goes off .....everything kewl here though, couldnt see nothing, rain wrapped, but ....LOTSA WATER !!! Get ready for more tommorow. ..... LATER !
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Pressures need to drop a fair amount before theres a chance of development. I'am sort of back and forth with this system with 25% chance of development. Do think convection will fire up tomorrow again. Plus another wet day here in Florida as well.
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Matthew
Unregistered
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My forecast is gone all gone the whole world then I went to check for more stuff on the site won'd I came back it was gone so later Might make it again that I was working on for a hour had perfect spelling and tropical forcast wait a few hours. or two!!!
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