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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11138 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:49 AM

Time to look ahead. A strong tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic near 14N 34W has become Tropical Storm Isabel - the 9th named storm of the season. Many of you were correct in your observation that this unclassified system had reached Depression status last night. Isabel is expected to slowly strengthen as she moves westward and then west northwestward at 10-12 knots. Isabel has excellent outflow in the western semicircle and very little shear to contend with, so folks in the Islands need to watch this one closely during the week ahead.

Hurricane Fabian moving northeast in the Atlantic now well northeast of Bermuda and this general motion should continue for quite a few days. Fabian still has excellent form and will move into the northern Atlantic as a strong Category II Hurricane/Extratropical Storm.

Tropical Depression Henri will soon exit into the Atlantic near or just south of Daytona Beach as he moves off to the east northeast and northeast at 20-25 knots. Henri could again attain Tropical Storm strength as he moves into the open Atlantic
The cyclone is small but persistent so he could remain on the tracking charts for a few more days.

A new wave exiting the coast of west Africa has excellent structure and appears to have an area of circulation. This wave has enough separation between itself and Isabel to develop as a separate system, however as Isabel intensifies, the new system should be pulled more off to the west northwest.

Looks like yet another interesting week of storm tracking for us, and in a short while I'll present you with a forecasting challenge in the Storm Forum.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
ED

Edited by John C (Sun Sep 07 2003 05:22 PM)


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11140 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:17 AM

Yep. Looks good (looked like a TS last nite). Marine outlook shows it just getting into the box aat about 19N/60W LOL! Think it'll be a bit south of that, but think its a bit early also. Cheers!!

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Alan
Unregistered




Henri overhead
      #11141 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:20 AM

Well, the center of Henri passed over Orlando about 9:30 or so. We had some very big thunder storms, but all told about .3 inches of rain NW of Orlando for the entire storm. It was one of the drier weeks we've had.
As to the wind, very little even during the storms.
It was certainly a let down after getting the prestorm jittes all week.

There was a poster on the last board about complacency, but even a die-hard hurricane watcher is getting that way. It's been over 40 years - Donna in 1960 - since hurricane force winds have blown over Orlando. In the 27 years I've lived here, we've had close calls all the time, but I am just beginning to believe that Orlando has about the same amount of chance of getting a hurricane as Atlanta. Could happen, but probably won't.


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11142 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:25 AM

Fabain looking very impressive still over the north atlantic and should move rapidly NE into the Hurricane graveyards. Fabian went about 50-100 miles closer to bermuda as the eastern eye wall brushed the coast. Unoffical reports of 117mph were not confirmed but hurricane force winds as perdicted were across the island with moderate damage and power outages.
Henri came onshore just n of clearwater beach and unexpectedly by all of us accelerated ENE but should slow and might be a T.S. on sunday again. Rainfall amounts were underestimate by forcasted models and i went with that. I didnt see that 10-20 inches would fall and i was correct. Infact some areas received less then .25 of a inch. My backyard recieved just under .5 and the center passed overhead at 6am. Overall rainfall amounts were from .1 of a inch - 6-7 inches in isolated areas around Sarasota and Ft. Myers. Strength was 5-10mph lower then forcasted by all due to weakening last evening. Pretty much though he did as forcasted also like fabian.

Isadore is next in line and she should become a hurricane in the next 36-48hrs. Movement just N of due west with a more wnw turn by tuesday. A path simular but just a tad south of fabian will be expected.. ne caribean islands should watch this one closly as right now the 5 day forcasts has her near 18N and 60W moving wnw. After that it will be interesting as a trough again comes off the U.S. coast but might move on by late next week. Time will tell. scottsvb


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Henri overhead
      #11143 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:43 AM

Yes Alan, I hear you. Storms that come in like Henri from the GOM ahead of a trough usually have a tough time getting together because of the shear from the approaching short waves, and this was the case again. I was on the coast here for Erin (minimal), and had brushes with Irene and Floyd, but that's about it. Florida will get hit by a major cane though....just a matter of time. Could be Isabel, or could be 10 years from now, but its gonna happen and it will be a rude awakening for some. The deal is, like Andrew, for a storm to have the most impact IMO it needs to have a strong building ridge to the north and a good heat source. And the timing would have to perfect for a central Florida hit. When storms like Fabian come across the Atlantic, their low pressures' gonna displace the pressure balance somewhere, and ultimately when it gets far enuf west to have an affect, the induced affect on the global pressure will cause a resultant trough. My opinion only, but seems to hold up most times. The situations I find most interesting are like the one with Isabel. Here's a storm riding west in the wake of departing Fabian which should cause the ridge to rebuild to the south, then SW. THis should allow Isabel to stay further south and on a more westerly course. The question upstream will be whether we will have high pressure building down into the northeast when (if) Isabel passes west of the BOX. And the trough (which should be between the re-built ridge and a CONUS high building into the NE) does not amplify as Fabian's did. This setup has far more possibilities for CONUS landfall than the previous scenario. Not that I'm rooting for one mind you, but just laying out the factors I see as important for the setup. Its a probabilities thing...and Isabel has a shot at being a red ball. LOL!! Cheers!!

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11145 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:52 AM

Just a note - the 'Challenge' has been posted in the Storm Forum.
ED


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islander
Unregistered




Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11146 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:59 AM

NHC 5-day track forecast is very similar to Fabian's in its early stages. However, there are notable differences among the models. Think we won't have a better idea until early in the week. Seat straight, Cycloneye!

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11147 - Sat Sep 06 2003 12:02 PM

This system concerns me a lot more than Fabian because it is at a more south latitud and it may not miss the leewards as Fabian did but we have plenty of time to look at the track to see if here in Puerto Rico we will have to get the shutters out.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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IsabellaCane
Unregistered




Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11149 - Sat Sep 06 2003 12:43 PM

I heard that they are expecting it to recurve because the ridge will break down and so the islands might not have to worry. Is this true?

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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11150 - Sat Sep 06 2003 12:54 PM

Center went overhead? Aren't you in Vero Beach?

BTW--Isabel, not Isadore.

IHS,

Bill


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Alex
Unregistered




They dont call it the peak of the season for nothing
      #11153 - Sat Sep 06 2003 02:12 PM

Here right now we have three tropical systems of various stages of life. And my, the NHC says that another wave moving off Africa may have a chance to be a fourth.

Eastern Caribbean really has to watch Izzy


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joepub1a
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11159 - Sat Sep 06 2003 04:33 PM

Just a quick note. Even odds that Isa (I won't use Izzy, we used that last year on this board. The Izzy dance became a big joke as Isadore did nothing, and I mean nothing, that the NHC predicted. Ask the Yucatan folks about that waltz.) is a little further south than the NHC said at 11 am. Either that, or it's got a little bit of WSW in it.

Here in Jacksonville were really getting a drop of rain here and there. Not much, but at least Henri left his mark. Still seems to be getting the heck sheared out of it, but he's over water again.

Joe in JAX


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joepub1a
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11160 - Sat Sep 06 2003 04:41 PM

A 24 TO 36 HOUR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THAT ISABEL HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTH OF DUE WEST...OR PERHAPS IT WAS A REFORMATION UNDER THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ABOUT 10 TO 12 KNOTS TOWARD THE WEST STEERED BY A RATHER STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

You read it here first!!

Joe in JAX


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Bill
Unregistered




NHC Discontinuity
      #11163 - Sat Sep 06 2003 07:30 PM

There is a discontinuity between the 5pm discussion and the track graphic for the same advisory.

The advisory says a wnw movement may begin in 3-5 days. The graphic shows it starting at 2pm TOMORROW.

Which is right?--I go with the text.

IHS,

Bill

ps---proofreaders needed at NHC....?


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: NHC Discontinuity
      #11166 - Sat Sep 06 2003 07:59 PM

Bill,

Be careful. It is not Polictically Correct around here to make even a minor one time half in jest criticism of the NHC.

They are always right and they never make mistakes. So are you sure you saw a discrepancy?

Bill


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joepub1a
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
Re: NHC Discontinuity
      #11167 - Sat Sep 06 2003 08:02 PM

My local tv stations need proofreaders too, as they put up graphics showing the same thing. A couple of factors are in play:1) the NHC doen't have good photo coverage of Isa right now, and 2) no model could have been run correctly because they didn't have the position and direction right to begin with. As far as I can tell there running off the Meteosat images, which are every six hours. Well, I think there every six hours because that's all I can find. I know it's not in GOES range yet, won't be until tomorrow.

As far as the models go, I've tried to look at what's happening around the storm, such as the ridge above it. I havn't seen anything that curved Isa away from the islands at all, and the door does not seem open for it to run shortly after that( to the north). My early gut feeling is with it being 2-3 degrees further south than Fabian, and with everything building back in down the road, that it could be far more trouble than Fabian was, but not as strong. I swear that even if it took a WNW, NW jog after the islands, the high above it builds in hard core cutting the escape route off. But that's my early, no clue take on things.

Joe in JAX


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Alex
Unregistered




sattelite images and the models
      #11168 - Sat Sep 06 2003 08:06 PM

Sat Images for Isabel shouldnt be a problem, as they are updated every 30 minutes or so on the NRL site.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

should be useful


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joepub1a
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
Re: sattelite images and the models
      #11169 - Sat Sep 06 2003 08:29 PM

Thank you Alex. That link got away from me somehow when I changed computers earlier this summer. Had forgot about it or some lame reason like that......

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lois
Unregistered




oh love the i storm
      #11170 - Sat Sep 06 2003 09:21 PM

anyway.... don't see what would make that dramatic of a NE turn at that long as those models show (north maybe...NE?) so for now will chalk those tracks up to bad data input and wait to see the next few model runs.

Beautiful...looks worse now than earlier but thats fine with me cause early organized storms would have more of a tendency to recurve far out so...let it go nice and slow and will keep watching.

Later...watching THE GAME right now on TV..priorities, ya know...



btw.. unreal beautiful tropical sunset after a wild lightning storm to the south...beautiful

bobbi


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: NHC Discontinuity
      #11171 - Sat Sep 06 2003 09:25 PM

The Meteostat is downloaded to public every six hours but runs every 30 minutes for experimentation and Meteorological services. That being said, the models may not have been initialized far enough south.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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