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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 354
Loc: Southeast, FL
Hurricane names
      #11173 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:18 PM

Umm arent names female, male,female,male?? vise versa.
Ericka girl Fabian uhh?? guy i guess henri supposedly a girl and then what isabel guy??? HUH What the hell is going on isabel is not a guys name its a girls.


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 354
Loc: Southeast, FL
Titles
      #11174 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:21 PM

I want my weather hobbiest title back thats what i am and all i ever will be. with the exception of meteorlogical school.

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Hurricane names
      #11175 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:39 PM

Ericka-girl, Fabian-guy, Grace-girl, Henri-guy, Isabel-girl., hope that clears up the name girl/guy confusion (lol)

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Alex
Unregistered




Isabel getting stonger
      #11176 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:40 PM

The winds are up to 60, pressure down to 997(Though with storms this far out, pressure is educated guesswork) Not a hint of northward movement. It is definitely worth watching if you live in the Eastern Caribbean.

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 354
Loc: Southeast, FL
LOL
      #11177 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:55 PM

LOL That helps a lot thanks. Where was i when grace happend geeze i need to go brush up on the alphabet.

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Isabel getting stonger
      #11178 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:55 PM

Models with the exception of the GFDL showing Isabel coming very close to the leeward islands in about 5 days. The islands should be looking at this one with a very watchful eye. Also with warm SST's, low shear forecast and a relatively slow movement could mean a Cat 2 or 3 cane approaching their area.

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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met
Unregistered




Re: Isabel getting stonger
      #11180 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:07 PM

it's getting stronger by the hour sea temps. are near 90 no shear this will get very strong. and no recurve. just saw weather channel and as it approaches bahamas and fla. high pressure will be there . only reason fabian didnt go there was high was pushed out.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Fabian, Henri & Isabel
      #11182 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:34 PM

I found a link to the main newspaper on Bermuda. Winds gusted to at least 125 mph with unconfirmed reports to 160 mph. http://www.theroyalgazette.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20030906/NEWS/109060095

We have had over 4" of rain in the last 2 days here in South Florida, some of which was introduced by Henri.

As far as Isabel is concerned, I think it stays south and heads to the northern islands and Puerto Rico as a cat. 3 storm.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Isabel getting stonger
      #11183 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:42 PM

isabel should be a very powerful hurricane by monday afternoon. off to the east the new african disturbance is already getting rated by SSD. too weak, but thats not bad for a system at 19W. there is about 18 degrees of longitude between it and isabel, so there shouldnt be space problems. could be isabel's little brother juan.
if there's any hint from the teleconnections, a westpac system is soon to recurve towards korea/western japan. it should turn up after 48hrs.. so set the timer from monday evening.. if i'm not mistaken the western hemisphere reflection will show up 6-10 days later. so excepting that isabel slows under the gap in the ridge left by henri, or that something else nips off the western end of the ridge.. using the median date, isabel turns up around sep 16th. that's a goofy, oversimplified use of teleconnection (probably incorrect), but considering that isabel should be near the islands on sep 12th, move it ahead 4 days and it's fairly close to the southeastern united states. SOI's signal is for ridging starting early in the upcoming week, though models arent too excited about a strong atlantic ridge, there is that NAO positive flattening that implies westward motion in the deep tropics. a system moving wnw past the islands on september 11th-12th is the problem scenario to look for, so get hyped if this sort of solution is being progged late next week.
must do laundry. college weekend hours.
HF 0342z07september


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islander
Unregistered




Re: Fabian, Henri & Isabel
      #11184 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:46 PM

Models are jumping back and forth with Isabel. Now they initiate a more WNW track after 24 hours and then back to W-WNW after the following 36 hours. Close call to the Leewards and Puerto Rico I think. I will certainly pay careful attention to this one from my beautiful sunny Puerto Rico...

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lois
Unregistered




hank.... frank... had to reread that over and over
      #11185 - Sun Sep 07 2003 12:08 AM

think was incredible.. not sure how it will play out, mind is a little mushy from THE GAME and keep repeating Isabel, Isabel so I know what we are talking about...9th storm... great storm.

great discussion, even if i had to reread it over and over

thanks...
Never bet against a Cane during Peak of the Season

going to have one amazing peak week it looks like

thanks
bobbi


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: hank.... frank... had to reread that over and over
      #11188 - Sun Sep 07 2003 12:49 AM

Strong T-Numbers for Isabel already:

06/2345 UTC 13.5N 35.5W T3.5/3.5 ISABEL

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Isabel
      #11189 - Sun Sep 07 2003 09:03 AM

If you look at the latest satillite imagery, this thing looks like it has an eye. I wonder what the 11 am advisory will hold.

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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joepub1a
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
Re: Isabel
      #11190 - Sun Sep 07 2003 09:35 AM

Isabel's pressure down to 987(est) with 65 kts winds. Could be a Cat 1 at 11am. "Eye" feature is in process of forming, but very large at the moment. Center does seemed to have reformed to the north a little bit(14.3?) , but overall storm still moving to the west. 97L is now being watched behind Isa.

Models are staying fairly steady now. GFDL is the most north of all of them, but it's feature is that it never turns NW at all, and shows high pressure(fairly strong) stays in place. Still no sign of an open door for Isa to go through. Some, if not most, show her going due west into the northern leewards, and a couple have her diving WSW into them. My first test is always the 20N 60W mark, and this one has a good shot at it so far.

Of the last five storms that started with an "I", two have hit a land mass along the way, with last year's Isadore doing her dance all over the GOM being the most recent.

Joe in JAX


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Isabel
      #11192 - Sun Sep 07 2003 10:30 AM

Does the adage that if a hurricane forms before 60 W. It does not bother the US, remain true for the whole season?
If Isabel becomes a strong hurricane in the next few days, and that rule holds true, then she is not a threat to the US. Right? Have we ever had a cane form that far out and make it to the US to do damage? Forgive me, its \Sunday morning and I may be getting my facts mixed up.


--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re:Hurricane Isabel
      #11193 - Sun Sep 07 2003 10:58 AM

11 AM AST SUN SEP 07 2003

...ISABEL BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...
...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1610 MILES...2595 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.



--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Isabel
      #11194 - Sun Sep 07 2003 11:35 AM

not at all..many long trackers have made it to the usa..each system is different and the weather patterns that dictate their track. this one looks to my like at least a SE Bahamas systema nd quite honestly no reason at this point to think it is stopping its wnw track at that point..read NHC discussion...the most important info from that is...THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WHICH INDICATES
THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 32N LATITUDE SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT WESTWARD AND PERHAPS EVEN CLOSE OFF A 500 MB HEIGHT CENTER A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA

that high building in will drive it wnw or even west woth no exit for the system...this one is coming at least 10 degrees farther W than fabian, at least!!


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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: Isabel
      #11195 - Sun Sep 07 2003 11:56 AM

New Invest 97L...just off Africa...Oh Boy...

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Isabel
      #11196 - Sun Sep 07 2003 12:00 PM

maybe. but it says 500mb height center SE of bermuda.. that means it would be turning NW around the periphery SW of bermuda. so basically, if this is the developing pattern, it only assures westward movement to near 60w.. unless the ridge continues to bridge westward. ECMWF didnt do a great job with fabian (comparatively it was average), but it is carrying isabel westward just north of the islands.. that holds some weight in my mind. GFS has it skimming the leewards and then slowing east of the bahamas and going straight out.. typical. note that this morning isabel has jumped further NW than eariler forecast, so some of those 00Z model runs may already have bugs. at this point, lets wait until the storm turns westward under the developing ridge, then we'll get an idea of its trajectory.
97L.. far far to the east, is developing. thats juan in a day or so. some early model runs recurving the storm very far to the east.. some globals carry it westward. once it develops they should get a better hold.
henri's persistence will play into how progressive things are near the east coast, and how the nearby features develop. at this point more of the globals are shifting back to a system persisting near the mid-atlantic.. some stationary and some with the NHC's eastward bend and a southerly turn. very weak system so it's probably throwing the models quite a bit.
with the high coming down in the east, low pressure in the western caribbean will be favored as an equalizing feature. 00Z NOGAPS has the weak wave currently near the windward islands behaving mischeviously by next weekend near jamaica.. have to see if this persists. convergence in the gulf isn't amounting to much.
climo peak is awfully close.
HF 1600z07september


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Isabel
      #11197 - Sun Sep 07 2003 12:30 PM

Mary:
I don't think that the adage is very good - there have been many exceptions. Some that I recall are David - 1979, Allen - 1980, Bertha - 1996, Georges - 1998 and Floyd - 1999. Here is a link where you can check for others:

Atlantic Tropical Cyclones by Year

There are other significant examples of systems which became hurricanes before they reached 40W and still made landfall in the U.S. A recent example is Luis in 1995 which became a hurricane at 37W. Other classic examples include Donna in 1960 which became a hurricane on September 1st at 12.2N 39.4W. Interesting to note that the great New England Hurricane of 1938 became a Tropical Storm on September 10th at 14.2N 21.5W. Another far eastern Atlantic Tropical Storm was Dennis in 1987 at 25W.
Cheers,
ED


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