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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: ISABEL
      #11218 - Sun Sep 07 2003 08:57 PM

12z euro has isabel moving wnw just east of the bahamas on the morning of 14 september. given that it tracks the early stages of isabel as a weak system, though the resulting position isnt much different than the consensus. GFS has something similar (although it stops practically every storm east of the bahamas and sends it to newfoundland). of course this euro and eta also keep wanting henri to nudge its way north once the core of the surface ridge moves northeast of it, with the storm running up towards new jersey. would have to be some kind of hybrid at that point, i assume.. think the NHC solution is probably closer.
that cape verde disturbance is now showing a 2.0 ssd rating. NHC had better go ahead and classify the damned thing or we'll have another system skipping the depression stage. tomorrow's forecast: out with fabian, in with juan. that would qualify as a nice burst, going from f to j in the space of 2 weeks. no sign of kate yet.
HF 0057z08september


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: ISABEL
      #11222 - Sun Sep 07 2003 11:18 PM

Looking at the IR loop, Isabel seems to be moving more westerly than wnw in the last few frames, could be just a wobble though. Also 97L looking like it's already a TD.

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
cruising the Bahamas in a couple weeks...
      #11223 - Sun Sep 07 2003 11:22 PM

All this activity spinnng up off Cape Verde making me quite a bit concerned about my Bahama cruise on the 29th of this month. Guess I knew what I was getting into when I booked that one... Juan should be a couple days early - just gonna be interesting to see how many days till the next wave comes off Africa... *fingers crossed*

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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Cat 2....probably really a Cat 3 this morning...
      #11224 - Mon Sep 08 2003 05:39 AM

Looks like she is a Cat 3 this morning...although the NHC doesn't seem interested in jumping the gun at all on calling it a major hurricane till later today. Should be a major hurricane by the 11 o'clock advisary. Doubt they will do an intermediate given she is so far out in the middle of nowhere. She certainly is gonna be one to watch in coming days and I am very glad my cruise to the Bahamas isn't in the next week because I have the feeling the Bahamas is going to get a visit from a monster.

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: ISABEL
      #11225 - Mon Sep 08 2003 05:44 AM

In reply to:

LAST NIGHTS RUN OF THE MRF WAS VERY INTERESTING...BRINGING ISABEL
JUST NORTH BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA AS IT MOVED VERY SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE SE BAHAMAS. A LOT OF QUESTIONS REMAIN CONCERNING THE
FORECAST OF ISABEL BEFORE WE CAN CONSIDER THIS MRF SOLUTION JUST
YET...BUT IF THE OVERALL FORECAST VERIFIES REASONABLY...THEN A VERY
SLOW MOVING HURRICANE WILL MOVE FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT
TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AND TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOVE WNW OR NW
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION AND INTO THE SW ATLC...DUE TO A BLOCKING
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS.
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AND THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK
WILL THUS BE VERY INTERESTING...AND WILL BE A CONSTANTLY EVOLVING
AND CHANGING SCENARIO.




From the sounds of this and the latest NHC forecast track, it seems that the shortwave that will be weakening the ridge some this weekend will do little more than just slow the storm down some and move it west-northwest. Still not sure of exactly what to do with the system after day 5.


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StPeteGuy
Unregistered




Re: ISABEL
      #11226 - Mon Sep 08 2003 05:49 AM

Hmmm.. from what I am starting to hear from everyone one is that Isabel may be an uninvited visitor to the Bahamas in a week or so which makes me think that Miami may be her next stop? Or, is she to magically turn north before impact? (its ok to guess)

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J.J.
Unregistered




Isabel's track
      #11227 - Mon Sep 08 2003 05:53 AM

As a climatological curiosity, I think it's worth noting that most TCs that become major hurricanes well east of the Antilles do not hit the East Coast, and in fact usually recurve. Of course, this is nothing to base a forecast on, and it's not absolute, but I think it should be considered.

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: ISABEL
      #11228 - Mon Sep 08 2003 06:10 AM

Kevin, the MRF extended solution is a bit on the scary side. Isabel looks real good this AM and is getting stronger each day. She has a beautiful eye and outflow. Sounds like she may be a real problem down the road, at this point the question is how much of a problem?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: ISABEL
      #11229 - Mon Sep 08 2003 06:22 AM

I also noticed that the 4 to 5 day period forecasts for Henri and Isabel are both slowing the storms, and big-time. Maybe there will be some type of a transient short wave moving through and weakening the ridge slightly? This will be an interesting week.

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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: ISABEL
      #11230 - Mon Sep 08 2003 08:24 AM

Yes ...interesting is the best word I can think of also for Isabel. She does seem to be eyeing the Southeast USA.
My pencil is sharpened and I am closely waiting and watching this one. What about the one behind it? Could we possibly have 2 in the near future? Think goodness my property is high and able to with stand the rains we have been having. I certainly hope the rain subsides some prior to a visit from an unwanted guest if that should be the case.

Toni keep me posted ... gonna be a busy week for me and I won't be able to be here as much as I would like.


--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
A time for compliments...
      #11231 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:14 AM

Know we all love to criticize and complain around here regarding what we consider less than accurate or wonderful discussion from both TWC and NHC but this morning's tropical updates by John?? at TWC have been nothing short of wonderful... fast paced, lots of info, good discussion as opposed to reformatting of NHC discussion... worth the time both times I saw it.. on occaision go out of my way to catch him early in the morning and rest of the day mute you know who..

next...
jarvinen's discussion was one of the most enjoyable ive ever read..felt like it was written by a person not a program.. showed the reality of what you see vs what the models are predicting and tho erring on the side of caution (w/o dropsondes...) gave good discussion on probable strength of Isabel and reasoning for keeping it at lower number for the next few hours.

excellent...
both of them... a real joy to be tracking with that type of discussion

like to see some discussion here on how Juan plays into all of this and could someone post the link please to the NASA pics..

thanks bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
nrl gives it away
      #11232 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:35 AM

14L is now listed as a 30kt depression on the NRL site.. as usual, an hour and a half before the NHC puts out advisories. there are now about 20 degrees of separation between isabel and this system, so it shouldnt be beaten to death by its predecessor. note that most global models take it NW in the eastern atlantic. guidance is fairly clustered on isabel at 5 days.. just north of the virgin islands. 06Z GFS has a very unpleasant solution, by the way. lets hope that the models are failing to maintain the upper trough ahead of isabel, and that it won't weaken or progress.. otherwise the storm will be in the bahamas next week.
HF 1335z08september


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
GFS just basically redrew Donna... take a look
      #11233 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:03 AM

i mean about as close as you can get from that far away

http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hurr/hurtrack/

very interesting... keep feeling her presence this year..real strong, something about all these cape verde rollers in september... keep watching

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
but here's a secure thought to keep...
      #11234 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:11 AM



--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: LOL
      #11235 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:12 AM

theres a good sized upper trough and strong subsidence trailing isabel, and after looking at wv i can see that it is affecting the new system behind it. 14L will have to stay south of this digging upper trough and not speed ahead into it, or it probably won't survive. based on this.. should develop slowly if anything.
HF 1412z08september


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
HERE's the thought
      #11236 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:12 AM

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_climo.html

have a good morning gang... catch up on some sleep its going to be a wild week i think of tracking

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HERE's the thought
      #11237 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:49 AM

I fixed a lot of issues with the display of advisories on the top... Sorry folks I was moving out of state all week (Bad week to move I know) and I'll be busy most this week too.

Least I can check the site now. Keep an eye out on Isabel.


And TD#14 .... I picked the wrong week to move.

Edited by MikeC (Mon Sep 08 2003 10:52 AM)


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: HERE's the thought
      #11238 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:51 AM

Isabel now Cat 3 cane., TD 14 develops., I guess climatology is right about Sept 10 being the peak of the season as it's going to be an active week.

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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bobbyboi
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
Loc: Atlanta
Re: A time for compliments...
      #11239 - Mon Sep 08 2003 11:02 AM

In reply to:

excellent...
both of them... a real joy to be tracking with that type of discussion




Agreed. Although, I think most of the discussions this season have been excellent. Especially Fabian's.

Bobby

--------------------
Bobby


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 354
Loc: Southeast, FL
1935 labor day hurricane
      #11240 - Mon Sep 08 2003 11:47 AM

Actully it was greater then 140knts no one measured the winds in that storm only the pressure and the gradient wich existed in that storm was only comparible to an f5 tornado where miami and key west had pressure upward of a 1000 millibars and winds barely reaching tropical storm force islamarada and places that that the 8 mile wide eye went over had a pressure of 892 millibars the second strongest atlantic hurricane pressure ever measured, and the strongest hurricane ever to hit the united states. that gradient suggested winds of 200mph or greater.

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