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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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ALex
Unregistered




TD14 and the northward forcast
      #11241 - Mon Sep 08 2003 12:47 PM

Why does it look like TD14 is going to be pulled north? It doesnt look so healthy now, but it should survive. If it remains weak, wont it get pulled further west?

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Beach
Unregistered




Sure is Purdy
      #11242 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:01 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Sure looks awesome from space.


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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: HERE's the thought
      #11243 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:23 PM

Going out on a limb - but I think Isabel will be a Fish Spinner...
looking at the latest WV loop
click here to see the WV loop Isabel will be doing battle with a trough that seems to be holding its ground. Indeed, it looks as if Isabel has taken a little jog - more wnw.

What do you all think?

mitch...


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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Fabien Video Feed
      #11244 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:32 PM

Got this from Weathervine. Here's a clip of some Cat-2 conditions you can look at of the eyewall crossing Bermuda. It looks pretty intense, but you'll need Windows Media in order to view it.

Fabien Eye-Wall Video Footage

As to TD #14 (?)/Juan, there will be a weakness in the wake of Isabel that will make him a fish spinner.

Steve


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
interesting storm to compare to... 1919
      #11245 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:35 PM

just interesting reading

as for Isabel...sorry she is chugging north of west..to wnw..

1919 Hurricane

trying to find that site from unisys that has the track for this storm..anyway...something to think on .. i think

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Sep 08 2003 07:50 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
here's track.. blend of one that didnt make it and isabel
      #11246 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:39 PM

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1919/index.html

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Hey Lois...
      #11247 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:41 PM

You gotta try that "URL" command for those long links. You copy the link, click the "URL" Button (under Instant UBB Code). It prompts you for the link and you paste it. After you hit enter, it prompts you for whatever you want to call it (e.g. IR Loop). That way those consecutive character strings won't fatten up the posts until they run off the screen. No criticism, it's just hard to have to scroll back and forth to read a post.

Steve


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Kimmie at work
Unregistered




Re: Sure is Purdy
      #11248 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:41 PM

Fabian and now Isabel.....very beautiful storms to look at. Some of the prettiest in a while. Looks like Isabel is tracking more west than north right now. Cycloneye, I hope you are watching closely, we are praying that your island not get a visit from Isabel. How can something so lovely to behold be so destructive? How soon before they start doing 3 hour updates instead of 6? Kimmie

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Bill
Unregistered




Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11249 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:49 PM

NHC doesn't seem to see it....could definitely influence track and intensity....

IHS,

Bill


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11250 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:52 PM

Storm is gaining a lot of latitude, departing from the progs....

IHS,

Bill



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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11251 - Mon Sep 08 2003 02:08 PM

Some of the steering wind graphs show a NW move and if it holds a SW move tomorrow.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11252 - Mon Sep 08 2003 02:13 PM

NHC definitely sees the upper low, and wrote about it in the 5 am discussion. But they mentioned that models suggest it will weaken and move to the west, and have relied on that guidance. I think it will be another 24 hours or so before we know if that will verify, so there may be a bit of a more N component than predicted until that time without forcing the NHC to re-think its thought of a more W motion later in the period.

But of course the models may be wrong about that feature - I hope so. I'd love to see a fish spinner!

Here's from the 5 am discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/14. ISABEL IS MOVING IN THIS
DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BUT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER COLD LOW THAT IS DEVELOPING
TO THE WEST OF ISABEL. THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THIS COLD LOW MAY BE ADDING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE MOTION. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS EVENTUALLY MOVE THIS
SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST AND WEAKEN IT.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11253 - Mon Sep 08 2003 02:27 PM

And actually, even though there might have been a more northward wobble a while ago (as Mitch pointed out), there might have been a more westward wobble the last hour or so. (Hard to tell how much of this was actual motion or just the eye wobbling.)

Regardless, since the 11 am advisory came out, it appears that the motion has averaged out to about 300 degrees, maybe 310 but I think closer to 300. This isn't far off the NHC's initial estimate of 290 degrees in the 11 am advisory, so I think it's too early to conclude that the NHC understimated the effect of that upper low.

But of course, the majority of storms in that area end up being fish spinners, so if you're a betting person you'll come out better in the long run if you always take the odds and bet fish.

Bet on fish, pray for fish.


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11254 - Mon Sep 08 2003 02:40 PM

HELP==site administrators! Another post eaten!

I will try again---

Thanks for the answer re: 5am discussion. I did not see that one.

In re: forecast of upper low weakening or getting out of the way...the track record so far this yr has been about 0% verification in this regard....so, seems the storm will jog a bit north, before returning to a w-wnw path. In fact, that may be happening now.

The trof/low looked pretty puny on WVI.

IHS,

Bill


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11255 - Mon Sep 08 2003 03:25 PM

The weather guys have been pretty good this year so far and they are definitely cautious on this one...the movement is pretty solid north of due west...right on the line predicted...if it flattens out before this time tomorrow I think it will strike land some where,...to me the point of demarcation is 25N/75W ...storms that cross 25N east of that point rarely turn back west...storms that cross 75n south of that point lmor often than not hit land EDS>

--------------------
doug


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11256 - Mon Sep 08 2003 03:31 PM

But of course, as with everything in tropical weather, there are some notable exceptions to that 25/75 rule, such as Andrew, Hugo, and Betsy.

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joepub1a
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11257 - Mon Sep 08 2003 03:50 PM

Isabel is right about where she should be, maybe just a tad north. The later models continue to shift a little more south, bring back memories of Bertha. A WSW move still is being shown, making it possible for Isa to be south of PR in 4-5 days. I know watching it now that might not seem possible, but almost all seem to nail at least the northern leewards. I don't think she'll start heading due west until allmost 50W, looking at the WV image, in really starts digging south right about there.

Really is another pretty storm. The Atlantic is holding a beauty contest this year; it's been a while since that happened.

Joe in JAX


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Kimmie at work
Unregistered




Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11258 - Mon Sep 08 2003 03:57 PM

How will the ULL ahead of Isabel affect her? It seems more pronounced as the afternoon wears on?

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11259 - Mon Sep 08 2003 04:15 PM

Her only chance to escape the the northern Atlantic is right about now! She's tempted, but not going to. The bad thing here is that she'll be getting under the ridge at a point that will take her a long way (at least 75 west IMO). How far beyond that we don't know yet, but she's been at about a 310 heading this afternoon. This is going to be a fun week. Next week might not be so fun!! Cheers!

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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11260 - Mon Sep 08 2003 04:17 PM

she isnt escaping anywhere for a very long time...to much ridging in place for at least 7 days..yes at least 75w and probably to 80 which is EC of Florida

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