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Sam now a hurricane and strengthening, however it is likely to remain out to sea, but worth watching next week.
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: model camps
      #11304 - Tue Sep 09 2003 09:51 AM

leading=leaning

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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: model camps
      #11305 - Tue Sep 09 2003 09:59 AM

interesting because FLorida NWS offices like a trough albeit weak to come down late in the weekend which may be responsible for slowing the system down late in the period but of course not picking it up because its weak and than the trough pulls out and we know what happens then..the ridge builds back in and our system starts a wnw again..we saw hints of this yesterday on some of the models. GFS is confused as it doesnt seem to handle this scenario well. isable gets stuck after making to around PR and than resumes its motion as trough pulls out if in fact trough has any influence on the system at all. its going to take alot to knock down the big ridge that is buildoing in..if the ridge is actually strong enough to push a system wsw for a day or two we know its a monster and wont erode easily.

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cajun
Unregistered




Realtime Sattelite
      #11306 - Tue Sep 09 2003 10:33 AM

For the last hour the NRL Sat. Loop has been updating every minuite. Since when do we have realtime Sattlelite?

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: model camps
      #11307 - Tue Sep 09 2003 10:40 AM

Not to be picky, but I haven't seen anything in any of the NWS Florida discussions this morning ( From 2 am to present) that state that Isabel will bypass the trough and the ridge will rebuild. None of the NWS offices even mentioned Isabel. Provide a link if you have one; inquiring minds want to know!!

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joepub1a
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
Re: Realtime Sattelite
      #11308 - Tue Sep 09 2003 10:42 AM

I thought you were kidding, so I went and looked myself. Wow!! Makes a great little movie, very very slow.........

Sure look closer to due west to me, like 280. NHC taking her to 21N 64.5 W, moving w/wnw. The big game of chicken is almost on for the east coast.....

Joe in Jax


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: model camps
      #11309 - Tue Sep 09 2003 10:48 AM

that is my speculationa as to what may happen not theirs..however they do mention a trough coming down..nws doesnt talk publicly beyond their forecast period.

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firestar
Unregistered




Re: Realtime Sattelite
      #11310 - Tue Sep 09 2003 10:51 AM

I checked out that link also: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil:80/sat-bin/display10.cgi
Can anyone else see the spinning starting up at 20n/60w just in front of Isabel? Any
idea's what's up with that?
Thanks!


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: model camps
      #11311 - Tue Sep 09 2003 10:53 AM

OK.....just wanted to know...anyone know an easy link to the tropical model suite. The WREL link on this site isn't updated....still shows 9/5 data. Thanks in advance.

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Tgunn
Unregistered




Re: model camps
      #11312 - Tue Sep 09 2003 11:03 AM

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: model camps
      #11313 - Tue Sep 09 2003 11:09 AM

That only shows the model data through 9/05/03!

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Mitch at Work
Unregistered




Re: model camps
      #11314 - Tue Sep 09 2003 11:23 AM

Hit Refresh

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Joe1
Unregistered




Re: model camps
      #11315 - Tue Sep 09 2003 11:52 AM

Steve heres a link to some models as of 9/9 12Z...
Joe

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/13LTRP.html


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: model camps
      #11316 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:36 PM

Thanks joe, my refresh button isn't doing it

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islander
Unregistered




Re: model camps
      #11317 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:37 PM

Where are you looking at? The caption says 9/9/03 at 10:14...

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: model camps
      #11318 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:54 PM

At WREL "scroll to the bottom of page" model output. I can see the updated graphic, but not the 120 text coordinates.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: model camps
      #11319 - Tue Sep 09 2003 01:01 PM

WREL just connects you to the Ohio State site's model output, and that site hasn't refreshed since 9/5. I've always used Ohio State's site to get the text of those models, so I can't offer an alternative. In a day or two I'll poke around and try to find an alternate source, if no one else posts one.

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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11320 - Tue Sep 09 2003 01:24 PM

I think we can get a hint of where she may go by looking at the Upper Low in front of her. As long as Isabel does not try to overtake the upper low, it should follow suit.

Although the latest sat imagery suggests another one of those "wobbles" to the North.

what do you all think?

mitch...


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11321 - Tue Sep 09 2003 01:40 PM

Re: wobble

Overall motion since the 11 am discussion was issued has tracked fairly close to the NHC's forecast - maybe just a tiny bit north, but very close - so little wobbles like that don't mean much with respect to the long-term track. NHC predicted that at 8 pm EST Isabel would be at 20.1N/48.4W, so before reading too much into a wobble, wait to see if, and how much, it's above 20.1 when it crosses 48.4 +/-.


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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11322 - Tue Sep 09 2003 01:47 PM

Trust me, I am NOT reading into any "wobble" especially given her current environment. I got myself in trouble with Fabian when I said that it took "a hard left" and you guys jumped all over that statement. Therefore, I am taking great care when talking about direction.

mitch...

Edited by MoparMitch (Tue Sep 09 2003 01:48 PM)


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11323 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:02 PM

Looks to me its already past 20.1 on the NRL loop.... still moving to the wnw from what I can tell, although the last frame appeared to be a wobble west, but the wobbles seemed to average out to that WNW track... so its going to be a little above the 8pm prediction, remains to be seen just how much, and the jury is still out on when and if it really does decide to go more on that more westerly track.... stay tuned.

You can get a really good look at the system using the NRL sat pix setting it on a 10 minute time frame, what a beautiful system this is right now...


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