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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11324 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:11 PM

Actually looks like we may get a major forecast bust---it seems to be turning more north and slowing down. Of course, slowing down could presage a change in direction, but I am not convinced. As I said the other day, NHC has been overforecasting the demise of upper lows all season.

Summary: Still a good chance Isabel will be a 'fish'. More so as time goes by and it is moving wnw to NW...even though in the last two advisories, it was trending more west...but not now.

Beginning a down phase in intensity too, it seems.

IHS,

Bill


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
wobbles north?
      #11325 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:12 PM

Wondering whether its possible that the upper level low is filling in at all and ..just looks different, very visible on visible imagery and usually its that visible on wv.

As for wobbling north..hard to say but it hasn't turned west.

Seems to not read the NHC advisories.

Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11326 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:15 PM

She still seems to be heading in a WNW direction, though the storm seems to be stretched east to west a bit and there might have been a slight wobble to the left. This leads me to believe, and since she's above 20N lattitude now, that the leewards may be out of the woods, unless a W and WSW movement starts soon. It'll be intersesting to see the next model runs to see if they track her more north than originally forecasted.

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
It is moving more north than predicted
      #11327 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:26 PM

That movement more north already passing the 20n line is great news for the northern islands because even if it takes a WSW motion it already be too far north to affect them.Right now it is well north from where Fabian was at that same longitud 47.5w.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11328 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:29 PM

thats "interesting" NOT" intersesting", I hate spelling errors.

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
wobbles all the time
      #11329 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:30 PM

give it 'til tomorrow. if that wnw movement hasnt bent to the left by then, we can start wondering if the storm is going to just keep going on its merry way well north of the islands. as far as all these wobbles go.. i mean, there isn't a lot of useful information they provide us. if a storm is three hours from landfall wobbles can have large effects on exactly where the core of the storm goes.. but 1200 miles out in the atlantic theyre irrelevant.
i offer an alternative: there are larger scale forces at work here than the wobbling eye of a large hurricane.. lots of global atmospheric indicators, stuff that joe bastardi always refers to. i've never gone to any lengths to dig up any of the info, other than a link to the SOI index i gleaned off of steve. last night i made a forum post for folks to add their input on this stuff.. i'm going to start it off with some SOI info later. so, if you want to do more than watch wobbles and wishcast, check it out later tonight, and i'll have an SOI link and some general information posted.
take it easy everybody.
HF 1830z09september


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
NEW Melbourne Discussion
      #11330 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:35 PM

This adds a little light to the post-5 day thinking:

SAT-TUE...RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CWA AS ATLANTIC TROUGH GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE RETURNS TO SEASONABLE LEVELS...SUGGESTING NEAR CLIMO
POPS...40 INLAND AND 30 COAST. HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE EXTREME SE BAHAMAS TUESDAY THEN TEMPORARILY SLOW/STALL AS
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/LIFTS NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL THREAT
FROM THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO BE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: It is moving more north than predicted
      #11331 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:38 PM

lol about "jumping all over" the hard left statement Mitch -- I don't think anyone intended to be mean-spirited or anything like that. At least I hope not. And of course you're correct that there was a wobble north.

And yes, anyy wobble, even a couple tenths of a degree, could benefit the islands. My only point was that I definitely wouldn't get too excited about such a small difference from the NHC's (or model guidance's) forecast track at this point, because it isn't far off.

Below is the NHC's take on the ULL and Isabel in the 205 discussion. Nothing new, but still interesting:

WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE GLFMEX/WRN CARIBBEAN
AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN ATLC ALONG 25N77W 30N70W. THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE FEATURE...HOWEVER...IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT IS CENTERED 150 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N61W
AND IS MOVING WWD AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP. THE LOW IS MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH WWD THAT IT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE DIRECT INFLUENCE TO
HURRICANE ISABEL...ALTHOUGH ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT WILL
INDIRECTLY BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL ATLC THAT MAY STEER THE
HURRICANE ON A MORE WWD TRACK. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
W/NW OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS AND WILL BE POSITIONED JUST NE OF THE
BAHAMAS BY EARLY FRIDAY.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE CNTRL ATLC IS HURRICANE ISABEL. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE STORM APPEARS LESS THAN IDEAL
BUT ISABEL IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND DOES NOT SEEM
NEGATIVELY AFFECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED
ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF THE HURRICANE NEAR 20N40W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NWWD OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS SUCH...ELY
FLOW OVER ISABEL HAS OBSCURED THE EYE AT TIMES WITH CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF FROM EYEWALL TSTMS. THE ANTICYCLONE/RIDGE IS IN AN
ADVANTAGEOUS POSITION BY PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW JET OUT
OF THE N SEMICIRCLE AND MAINTAINING BENEFICIAL UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE.


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: wobbles north?
      #11332 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:47 PM

The upper low looks stronger and has moved somewhat to the west.....doesn't seem to be weakening or getting out of the way.

IHS,

Bill


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zoidy
Unregistered




Re: wobbles all the time
      #11333 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:50 PM

New guy here on this forum. Just moved from Mass. to Florida (Spring Hill)..my first experience with ANY form of tropical storm (Henri). I am a COMPLETE NOVICE here, so I only have been lurking. This is a great forum, and a gaggle of knowlegable people here..praise to all you guys and gals. All this hurricane stuff scares the h#ll out of me, so I observe with revereance and awe and may shoot in a novice question every so often. That said, what are chances of any of these "major" canes hitting the West coast of Flrida..just North of Tampa?
Thanks guys..Zoidy


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: wobbles all the time
      #11334 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:56 PM

Zoidy:

Click on this link Tampa strikes to see a list of storms that have hit Tampa.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
major canes
      #11335 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:57 PM

i'll get your question, zoidy. west coast of florida.. north of tampa. your region, if it's going to get whacked, usually takes it from the southwest. NHC has graphics on their site which provide information on the strike frequency for your area, how often you get storms, how often you get very powerful ones. i can tell you right now that section of the florida coast hasnt taken a direct hit from a hurricane since 1968. i can also tell you that though your chances aren't exceptional by florida standards, that section of the coast can get hit any time during the season, unlike some other sections of u.s. coastline.
HF 1857z09september


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: wobbles all the time
      #11336 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:00 PM

Actually, I think (but am not sure) the link I provided gives the maximum winds of the storm, even if the winds were not that great at the time of landfall near Tampa - so it's probably not exactly what you want.

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zoidy
Unregistered




Re: wobbles all the time
      #11337 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:03 PM

Thanks Brad
Interesting....it APPEARS from that list that the West coast tends not to get the upper (level 2-5) canes. Is this because these are "back door" storms (coming overland from the East), or do Gulf canes tend to be smaller? Also..complete NOVICE question.. how strong do winds need to be before I have to worry about "shuttering" the house? I have a new home that is supposed to be built to withstand 130 mph winds....Thanks in advance for your opinions..
Zoidy


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: model camps
      #11338 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:04 PM

Steve H:

Ohio State site's model output is now current (has the 9/9 18Z model text output).


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zoidy
Unregistered




Re: major canes
      #11339 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:07 PM

HanKFranK..
Thanks for the comments..
Zoidy
"the nervous"


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: wobbles all the time
      #11340 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:16 PM

130 mph rated windows don't do well with 100 mph wind driven debris blowing against it... small tree limbs, twigs, branches all sound like machine gun straff hitting your windows, even in tropical storm force winds.... so, its the debris you better worry about hitting your windows, not just straight line winds.. and once they break, then all hell breaks loose...

as a general rule of thumb, I board up all south facing windows for 75 mph winds... but after Bill this summer, we had some 50-60 mph winds that made me wish I had boarded up... so, depending on the side of the storm I am on, I will start boarding up anytime the winds exceed 50-60 mph out of the south in my area... and all other windows on the east and west side of my house for 75 mph... I never board up the north windows because that part of my house is sheltered for the most part



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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion
      #11341 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:16 PM

VERY interesting. Of course, all of this hinges on what Isabel does in the short term (whether it turns west or not, mainly).

So, what happens if Isabel slows/stalls? An upper level trough weakening and moving north..hmm. That would probably mean that the trough would pull out without carrying Isabel with it, so Florida probably gets claubered big time in the Wednesday to Friday timeframe. *But that is only one sceanrio, and it is long range.*

Wait and see, definitely wait and see.


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Beach
Unregistered




Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion
      #11342 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:31 PM

Would you mind posting the link?
Thanks!


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Jamie
Unregistered




Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion
      #11343 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:36 PM

Beach,

The NWS MLB Forecast discussion can be found here

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MLB/AFDMLB


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