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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11138 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:49 AM

Time to look ahead. A strong tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic near 14N 34W has become Tropical Storm Isabel - the 9th named storm of the season. Many of you were correct in your observation that this unclassified system had reached Depression status last night. Isabel is expected to slowly strengthen as she moves westward and then west northwestward at 10-12 knots. Isabel has excellent outflow in the western semicircle and very little shear to contend with, so folks in the Islands need to watch this one closely during the week ahead.

Hurricane Fabian moving northeast in the Atlantic now well northeast of Bermuda and this general motion should continue for quite a few days. Fabian still has excellent form and will move into the northern Atlantic as a strong Category II Hurricane/Extratropical Storm.

Tropical Depression Henri will soon exit into the Atlantic near or just south of Daytona Beach as he moves off to the east northeast and northeast at 20-25 knots. Henri could again attain Tropical Storm strength as he moves into the open Atlantic
The cyclone is small but persistent so he could remain on the tracking charts for a few more days.

A new wave exiting the coast of west Africa has excellent structure and appears to have an area of circulation. This wave has enough separation between itself and Isabel to develop as a separate system, however as Isabel intensifies, the new system should be pulled more off to the west northwest.

Looks like yet another interesting week of storm tracking for us, and in a short while I'll present you with a forecasting challenge in the Storm Forum.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
ED

Edited by John C (Sun Sep 07 2003 05:22 PM)


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11140 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:17 AM

Yep. Looks good (looked like a TS last nite). Marine outlook shows it just getting into the box aat about 19N/60W LOL! Think it'll be a bit south of that, but think its a bit early also. Cheers!!

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Alan
Unregistered




Henri overhead
      #11141 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:20 AM

Well, the center of Henri passed over Orlando about 9:30 or so. We had some very big thunder storms, but all told about .3 inches of rain NW of Orlando for the entire storm. It was one of the drier weeks we've had.
As to the wind, very little even during the storms.
It was certainly a let down after getting the prestorm jittes all week.

There was a poster on the last board about complacency, but even a die-hard hurricane watcher is getting that way. It's been over 40 years - Donna in 1960 - since hurricane force winds have blown over Orlando. In the 27 years I've lived here, we've had close calls all the time, but I am just beginning to believe that Orlando has about the same amount of chance of getting a hurricane as Atlanta. Could happen, but probably won't.


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11142 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:25 AM

Fabain looking very impressive still over the north atlantic and should move rapidly NE into the Hurricane graveyards. Fabian went about 50-100 miles closer to bermuda as the eastern eye wall brushed the coast. Unoffical reports of 117mph were not confirmed but hurricane force winds as perdicted were across the island with moderate damage and power outages.
Henri came onshore just n of clearwater beach and unexpectedly by all of us accelerated ENE but should slow and might be a T.S. on sunday again. Rainfall amounts were underestimate by forcasted models and i went with that. I didnt see that 10-20 inches would fall and i was correct. Infact some areas received less then .25 of a inch. My backyard recieved just under .5 and the center passed overhead at 6am. Overall rainfall amounts were from .1 of a inch - 6-7 inches in isolated areas around Sarasota and Ft. Myers. Strength was 5-10mph lower then forcasted by all due to weakening last evening. Pretty much though he did as forcasted also like fabian.

Isadore is next in line and she should become a hurricane in the next 36-48hrs. Movement just N of due west with a more wnw turn by tuesday. A path simular but just a tad south of fabian will be expected.. ne caribean islands should watch this one closly as right now the 5 day forcasts has her near 18N and 60W moving wnw. After that it will be interesting as a trough again comes off the U.S. coast but might move on by late next week. Time will tell. scottsvb


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Henri overhead
      #11143 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:43 AM

Yes Alan, I hear you. Storms that come in like Henri from the GOM ahead of a trough usually have a tough time getting together because of the shear from the approaching short waves, and this was the case again. I was on the coast here for Erin (minimal), and had brushes with Irene and Floyd, but that's about it. Florida will get hit by a major cane though....just a matter of time. Could be Isabel, or could be 10 years from now, but its gonna happen and it will be a rude awakening for some. The deal is, like Andrew, for a storm to have the most impact IMO it needs to have a strong building ridge to the north and a good heat source. And the timing would have to perfect for a central Florida hit. When storms like Fabian come across the Atlantic, their low pressures' gonna displace the pressure balance somewhere, and ultimately when it gets far enuf west to have an affect, the induced affect on the global pressure will cause a resultant trough. My opinion only, but seems to hold up most times. The situations I find most interesting are like the one with Isabel. Here's a storm riding west in the wake of departing Fabian which should cause the ridge to rebuild to the south, then SW. THis should allow Isabel to stay further south and on a more westerly course. The question upstream will be whether we will have high pressure building down into the northeast when (if) Isabel passes west of the BOX. And the trough (which should be between the re-built ridge and a CONUS high building into the NE) does not amplify as Fabian's did. This setup has far more possibilities for CONUS landfall than the previous scenario. Not that I'm rooting for one mind you, but just laying out the factors I see as important for the setup. Its a probabilities thing...and Isabel has a shot at being a red ball. LOL!! Cheers!!

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11145 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:52 AM

Just a note - the 'Challenge' has been posted in the Storm Forum.
ED


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islander
Unregistered




Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11146 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:59 AM

NHC 5-day track forecast is very similar to Fabian's in its early stages. However, there are notable differences among the models. Think we won't have a better idea until early in the week. Seat straight, Cycloneye!

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11147 - Sat Sep 06 2003 12:02 PM

This system concerns me a lot more than Fabian because it is at a more south latitud and it may not miss the leewards as Fabian did but we have plenty of time to look at the track to see if here in Puerto Rico we will have to get the shutters out.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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IsabellaCane
Unregistered




Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11149 - Sat Sep 06 2003 12:43 PM

I heard that they are expecting it to recurve because the ridge will break down and so the islands might not have to worry. Is this true?

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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11150 - Sat Sep 06 2003 12:54 PM

Center went overhead? Aren't you in Vero Beach?

BTW--Isabel, not Isadore.

IHS,

Bill


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Alex
Unregistered




They dont call it the peak of the season for nothing
      #11153 - Sat Sep 06 2003 02:12 PM

Here right now we have three tropical systems of various stages of life. And my, the NHC says that another wave moving off Africa may have a chance to be a fourth.

Eastern Caribbean really has to watch Izzy


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joepub1a
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
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Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11159 - Sat Sep 06 2003 04:33 PM

Just a quick note. Even odds that Isa (I won't use Izzy, we used that last year on this board. The Izzy dance became a big joke as Isadore did nothing, and I mean nothing, that the NHC predicted. Ask the Yucatan folks about that waltz.) is a little further south than the NHC said at 11 am. Either that, or it's got a little bit of WSW in it.

Here in Jacksonville were really getting a drop of rain here and there. Not much, but at least Henri left his mark. Still seems to be getting the heck sheared out of it, but he's over water again.

Joe in JAX


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joepub1a
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11160 - Sat Sep 06 2003 04:41 PM

A 24 TO 36 HOUR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THAT ISABEL HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTH OF DUE WEST...OR PERHAPS IT WAS A REFORMATION UNDER THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ABOUT 10 TO 12 KNOTS TOWARD THE WEST STEERED BY A RATHER STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

You read it here first!!

Joe in JAX


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Bill
Unregistered




NHC Discontinuity
      #11163 - Sat Sep 06 2003 07:30 PM

There is a discontinuity between the 5pm discussion and the track graphic for the same advisory.

The advisory says a wnw movement may begin in 3-5 days. The graphic shows it starting at 2pm TOMORROW.

Which is right?--I go with the text.

IHS,

Bill

ps---proofreaders needed at NHC....?


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BillD
User


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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: NHC Discontinuity
      #11166 - Sat Sep 06 2003 07:59 PM

Bill,

Be careful. It is not Polictically Correct around here to make even a minor one time half in jest criticism of the NHC.

They are always right and they never make mistakes. So are you sure you saw a discrepancy?

Bill


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joepub1a
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
Re: NHC Discontinuity
      #11167 - Sat Sep 06 2003 08:02 PM

My local tv stations need proofreaders too, as they put up graphics showing the same thing. A couple of factors are in play:1) the NHC doen't have good photo coverage of Isa right now, and 2) no model could have been run correctly because they didn't have the position and direction right to begin with. As far as I can tell there running off the Meteosat images, which are every six hours. Well, I think there every six hours because that's all I can find. I know it's not in GOES range yet, won't be until tomorrow.

As far as the models go, I've tried to look at what's happening around the storm, such as the ridge above it. I havn't seen anything that curved Isa away from the islands at all, and the door does not seem open for it to run shortly after that( to the north). My early gut feeling is with it being 2-3 degrees further south than Fabian, and with everything building back in down the road, that it could be far more trouble than Fabian was, but not as strong. I swear that even if it took a WNW, NW jog after the islands, the high above it builds in hard core cutting the escape route off. But that's my early, no clue take on things.

Joe in JAX


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Alex
Unregistered




sattelite images and the models
      #11168 - Sat Sep 06 2003 08:06 PM

Sat Images for Isabel shouldnt be a problem, as they are updated every 30 minutes or so on the NRL site.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

should be useful


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joepub1a
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
Re: sattelite images and the models
      #11169 - Sat Sep 06 2003 08:29 PM

Thank you Alex. That link got away from me somehow when I changed computers earlier this summer. Had forgot about it or some lame reason like that......

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lois
Unregistered




oh love the i storm
      #11170 - Sat Sep 06 2003 09:21 PM

anyway.... don't see what would make that dramatic of a NE turn at that long as those models show (north maybe...NE?) so for now will chalk those tracks up to bad data input and wait to see the next few model runs.

Beautiful...looks worse now than earlier but thats fine with me cause early organized storms would have more of a tendency to recurve far out so...let it go nice and slow and will keep watching.

Later...watching THE GAME right now on TV..priorities, ya know...



btw.. unreal beautiful tropical sunset after a wild lightning storm to the south...beautiful

bobbi


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: NHC Discontinuity
      #11171 - Sat Sep 06 2003 09:25 PM

The Meteostat is downloaded to public every six hours but runs every 30 minutes for experimentation and Meteorological services. That being said, the models may not have been initialized far enough south.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 354
Loc: Southeast, FL
Hurricane names
      #11173 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:18 PM

Umm arent names female, male,female,male?? vise versa.
Ericka girl Fabian uhh?? guy i guess henri supposedly a girl and then what isabel guy??? HUH What the hell is going on isabel is not a guys name its a girls.


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 354
Loc: Southeast, FL
Titles
      #11174 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:21 PM

I want my weather hobbiest title back thats what i am and all i ever will be. with the exception of meteorlogical school.

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Hurricane names
      #11175 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:39 PM

Ericka-girl, Fabian-guy, Grace-girl, Henri-guy, Isabel-girl., hope that clears up the name girl/guy confusion (lol)

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Alex
Unregistered




Isabel getting stonger
      #11176 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:40 PM

The winds are up to 60, pressure down to 997(Though with storms this far out, pressure is educated guesswork) Not a hint of northward movement. It is definitely worth watching if you live in the Eastern Caribbean.

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 354
Loc: Southeast, FL
LOL
      #11177 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:55 PM

LOL That helps a lot thanks. Where was i when grace happend geeze i need to go brush up on the alphabet.

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Isabel getting stonger
      #11178 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:55 PM

Models with the exception of the GFDL showing Isabel coming very close to the leeward islands in about 5 days. The islands should be looking at this one with a very watchful eye. Also with warm SST's, low shear forecast and a relatively slow movement could mean a Cat 2 or 3 cane approaching their area.

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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met
Unregistered




Re: Isabel getting stonger
      #11180 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:07 PM

it's getting stronger by the hour sea temps. are near 90 no shear this will get very strong. and no recurve. just saw weather channel and as it approaches bahamas and fla. high pressure will be there . only reason fabian didnt go there was high was pushed out.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Fabian, Henri & Isabel
      #11182 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:34 PM

I found a link to the main newspaper on Bermuda. Winds gusted to at least 125 mph with unconfirmed reports to 160 mph. http://www.theroyalgazette.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20030906/NEWS/109060095

We have had over 4" of rain in the last 2 days here in South Florida, some of which was introduced by Henri.

As far as Isabel is concerned, I think it stays south and heads to the northern islands and Puerto Rico as a cat. 3 storm.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Isabel getting stonger
      #11183 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:42 PM

isabel should be a very powerful hurricane by monday afternoon. off to the east the new african disturbance is already getting rated by SSD. too weak, but thats not bad for a system at 19W. there is about 18 degrees of longitude between it and isabel, so there shouldnt be space problems. could be isabel's little brother juan.
if there's any hint from the teleconnections, a westpac system is soon to recurve towards korea/western japan. it should turn up after 48hrs.. so set the timer from monday evening.. if i'm not mistaken the western hemisphere reflection will show up 6-10 days later. so excepting that isabel slows under the gap in the ridge left by henri, or that something else nips off the western end of the ridge.. using the median date, isabel turns up around sep 16th. that's a goofy, oversimplified use of teleconnection (probably incorrect), but considering that isabel should be near the islands on sep 12th, move it ahead 4 days and it's fairly close to the southeastern united states. SOI's signal is for ridging starting early in the upcoming week, though models arent too excited about a strong atlantic ridge, there is that NAO positive flattening that implies westward motion in the deep tropics. a system moving wnw past the islands on september 11th-12th is the problem scenario to look for, so get hyped if this sort of solution is being progged late next week.
must do laundry. college weekend hours.
HF 0342z07september


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islander
Unregistered




Re: Fabian, Henri & Isabel
      #11184 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:46 PM

Models are jumping back and forth with Isabel. Now they initiate a more WNW track after 24 hours and then back to W-WNW after the following 36 hours. Close call to the Leewards and Puerto Rico I think. I will certainly pay careful attention to this one from my beautiful sunny Puerto Rico...

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lois
Unregistered




hank.... frank... had to reread that over and over
      #11185 - Sun Sep 07 2003 12:08 AM

think was incredible.. not sure how it will play out, mind is a little mushy from THE GAME and keep repeating Isabel, Isabel so I know what we are talking about...9th storm... great storm.

great discussion, even if i had to reread it over and over

thanks...
Never bet against a Cane during Peak of the Season

going to have one amazing peak week it looks like

thanks
bobbi


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: hank.... frank... had to reread that over and over
      #11188 - Sun Sep 07 2003 12:49 AM

Strong T-Numbers for Isabel already:

06/2345 UTC 13.5N 35.5W T3.5/3.5 ISABEL

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Isabel
      #11189 - Sun Sep 07 2003 09:03 AM

If you look at the latest satillite imagery, this thing looks like it has an eye. I wonder what the 11 am advisory will hold.

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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joepub1a
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
Re: Isabel
      #11190 - Sun Sep 07 2003 09:35 AM

Isabel's pressure down to 987(est) with 65 kts winds. Could be a Cat 1 at 11am. "Eye" feature is in process of forming, but very large at the moment. Center does seemed to have reformed to the north a little bit(14.3?) , but overall storm still moving to the west. 97L is now being watched behind Isa.

Models are staying fairly steady now. GFDL is the most north of all of them, but it's feature is that it never turns NW at all, and shows high pressure(fairly strong) stays in place. Still no sign of an open door for Isa to go through. Some, if not most, show her going due west into the northern leewards, and a couple have her diving WSW into them. My first test is always the 20N 60W mark, and this one has a good shot at it so far.

Of the last five storms that started with an "I", two have hit a land mass along the way, with last year's Isadore doing her dance all over the GOM being the most recent.

Joe in JAX


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Isabel
      #11192 - Sun Sep 07 2003 10:30 AM

Does the adage that if a hurricane forms before 60 W. It does not bother the US, remain true for the whole season?
If Isabel becomes a strong hurricane in the next few days, and that rule holds true, then she is not a threat to the US. Right? Have we ever had a cane form that far out and make it to the US to do damage? Forgive me, its \Sunday morning and I may be getting my facts mixed up.


--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re:Hurricane Isabel
      #11193 - Sun Sep 07 2003 10:58 AM

11 AM AST SUN SEP 07 2003

...ISABEL BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...
...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1610 MILES...2595 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.



--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Isabel
      #11194 - Sun Sep 07 2003 11:35 AM

not at all..many long trackers have made it to the usa..each system is different and the weather patterns that dictate their track. this one looks to my like at least a SE Bahamas systema nd quite honestly no reason at this point to think it is stopping its wnw track at that point..read NHC discussion...the most important info from that is...THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WHICH INDICATES
THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 32N LATITUDE SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT WESTWARD AND PERHAPS EVEN CLOSE OFF A 500 MB HEIGHT CENTER A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA

that high building in will drive it wnw or even west woth no exit for the system...this one is coming at least 10 degrees farther W than fabian, at least!!


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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: Isabel
      #11195 - Sun Sep 07 2003 11:56 AM

New Invest 97L...just off Africa...Oh Boy...

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Isabel
      #11196 - Sun Sep 07 2003 12:00 PM

maybe. but it says 500mb height center SE of bermuda.. that means it would be turning NW around the periphery SW of bermuda. so basically, if this is the developing pattern, it only assures westward movement to near 60w.. unless the ridge continues to bridge westward. ECMWF didnt do a great job with fabian (comparatively it was average), but it is carrying isabel westward just north of the islands.. that holds some weight in my mind. GFS has it skimming the leewards and then slowing east of the bahamas and going straight out.. typical. note that this morning isabel has jumped further NW than eariler forecast, so some of those 00Z model runs may already have bugs. at this point, lets wait until the storm turns westward under the developing ridge, then we'll get an idea of its trajectory.
97L.. far far to the east, is developing. thats juan in a day or so. some early model runs recurving the storm very far to the east.. some globals carry it westward. once it develops they should get a better hold.
henri's persistence will play into how progressive things are near the east coast, and how the nearby features develop. at this point more of the globals are shifting back to a system persisting near the mid-atlantic.. some stationary and some with the NHC's eastward bend and a southerly turn. very weak system so it's probably throwing the models quite a bit.
with the high coming down in the east, low pressure in the western caribbean will be favored as an equalizing feature. 00Z NOGAPS has the weak wave currently near the windward islands behaving mischeviously by next weekend near jamaica.. have to see if this persists. convergence in the gulf isn't amounting to much.
climo peak is awfully close.
HF 1600z07september


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Isabel
      #11197 - Sun Sep 07 2003 12:30 PM

Mary:
I don't think that the adage is very good - there have been many exceptions. Some that I recall are David - 1979, Allen - 1980, Bertha - 1996, Georges - 1998 and Floyd - 1999. Here is a link where you can check for others:

Atlantic Tropical Cyclones by Year

There are other significant examples of systems which became hurricanes before they reached 40W and still made landfall in the U.S. A recent example is Luis in 1995 which became a hurricane at 37W. Other classic examples include Donna in 1960 which became a hurricane on September 1st at 12.2N 39.4W. Interesting to note that the great New England Hurricane of 1938 became a Tropical Storm on September 10th at 14.2N 21.5W. Another far eastern Atlantic Tropical Storm was Dennis in 1987 at 25W.
Cheers,
ED


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Isabel
      #11198 - Sun Sep 07 2003 12:37 PM

Mary-
Many storms have formed east of 60 W(or become hurricanes east of 60 W) and affected land/US...Donna is one that springs to mind immediately. Hugo is another. Gilbert, Allen, Gloria, Elena, Georges, Dora etc.

NOTE: Well, my questioning yesterday of the text/graphic conflict was resolved---in favor of the graphic, not the text!

One picture=one thousand advisory words.

Here in Tally---a typical post tropical cyclone day....cooler, gray, slight breeze....

Noticed probabilities are back with Henri for Fl...wassup with that?

Isabel looks like a danger to the islands, and also downstream....stay tuned.

IHS,

Bill


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Isabel
      #11199 - Sun Sep 07 2003 12:44 PM

That was the feel in PC this am, post tropical, cooler & gray.

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jlauderdal
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Re: Isabel
      #11200 - Sun Sep 07 2003 12:45 PM

yes but the ridge is looking like it will continue to build in at 60 so therefore my at least 10 degree W prediction...hey i was down in your neck of the woods yesterday out on key biscayne..nice breeze and than it died and then we all started sweating..more of the sme today in fort laud..i was just out by the pool and i am feeling that 79 dewpoint.

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Alex
Unregistered




97L
      #11201 - Sun Sep 07 2003 01:47 PM

It continues to get better organized, should be a depression by 5 or more conservatively 11 (which is fine because it is thousands of miles away from anything except the Cape Verdes). It's far away enough from its big sister that she shouldn't kill it.

Interesting thought- I wonder if there's ever been watches or warnings for the Cape Verde Islands


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LoisCane
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Re: 97L
      #11202 - Sun Sep 07 2003 02:19 PM

Should stay south of big sis and if big sis does turn after scaring the daylights out of the se coast...would imagine this little brother would be more likely to be a threat...or ...

speculative at best at this point but interesting twist

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Mary K.
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Re: Questions about landfalls
      #11203 - Sun Sep 07 2003 03:16 PM

Thanks for alll of your responses to my questions. I will continue to monitor this storm Isabella. She seems to be interesting.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: 97L
      #11204 - Sun Sep 07 2003 03:17 PM

Alex:
Regarding warnings for Cape Verde Islands, probably not, but if you want to see an interesting track, look at Tropical Storm #6 in 1988. It was added after the season. Winds estimated at 50 knots and lowest pressure of 994mb. It became a TS at 18.5W. Hurricane #2 in 1927 became a Tropical Storm at 19.3W and Hurricane Jeanne in 1998 became a Tropical Storm at 19.4W.

Mary:
If you use 40W rather than 60W then the adage has merit. In the past 100 years there have been 22 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin south of 20N and at or east of 40W which have reached hurricane strength before passing 40W. Only three of these hurricanes have hit the continental U.S.: Hurricane #4 in 1947, Hurricane Donna in 1960 and Hurricane Georges in 1998. Georges was the only one that hit Puerto Rico.
Cheers,
ED


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joepub1a
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Re: 97L
      #11205 - Sun Sep 07 2003 04:32 PM

One thing worth noting about Isabel this afternoon. The wild NW ride seems to be mellowing a bit, and the models won't let the leewards get out of the way. They are bringing her back into the islands again with some WSW movement, telling me they think that ridge is really going to kick back in further down the road. Let's see what the NHC has to say at 5:00.

Joe in JAX


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Bruce
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Re: 97L
      #11206 - Sun Sep 07 2003 05:02 PM

Heard that the high will build in for about 2 weeks. From about 60W through Florida and into the GOM. Isabel may just go west into Mexico.

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57497479
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ISABEL
      #11207 - Sun Sep 07 2003 05:32 PM

Wow, just read the 5PM discussion from TPC. Looks like Isabel is wasting no time showing her stuff. If the ridge does continue to build as suggested then the Leewards may not be the only Islands that needs to watch this one. Looks like she has a very good chance at becomming a major cane.

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All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Jamie
Unregistered




Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
      #11208 - Sun Sep 07 2003 06:53 PM

Does anyone know the name of the Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone and it what year it occured? I know Hurricane Mitch hit 180 in 1998, and Hurricane Gilbert hit 185 in 1988. But was Gilbert the strongest?

Found a nice image of Hurricane Fabian so i decided to post it.


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Bruce
Weather Guru


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Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
      #11209 - Sun Sep 07 2003 07:04 PM

The strongest hurricane ever measured in the Western Hemisphere was Gilbert in 1988. The 888 millibar central pressure recorded in Gilbert on Sept. 14, 1988, is the lowest ever recorded in an Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico storm.



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Bruce
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Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
      #11210 - Sun Sep 07 2003 07:06 PM

Hurricane Linda's winds were blowing at an estimated 185 to 190 mph, making it the strongest hurricane ever observed in the eastern Pacific. For a time Linda threatened to hit the California Coast.

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Bruce
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Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
      #11211 - Sun Sep 07 2003 07:09 PM

The world record for the lowest tropical cyclone pressure is 870 millibars in Typhoon Tip in the northwest Pacific Ocean on Oct. 12, 1979.



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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
      #11212 - Sun Sep 07 2003 07:23 PM

For the Atlantic Basin, I think that these are the top 5 for sustained wind:
Allen 1980 165kts
Camille 1969 165kts
Dog 1950 160kts
Gilbert 1988 160kts
Mitch 1998 155kts

Cheers,
ED


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
      #11213 - Sun Sep 07 2003 07:36 PM

Off tempo just a second.... I saw some great shots of Fabian this am on NASA TV taken by the Space Station crew

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stormchazer
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Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
      #11214 - Sun Sep 07 2003 07:47 PM

97L T-numbers:

07/2300 UTC 12.2N 20.6W T2.0/2.0

--------------------
Jara

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Tropicalwatcher
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Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
      #11215 - Sun Sep 07 2003 08:03 PM

I thorught the 1935 labar day hurricane had winds stronger then 200 mph or higher?

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


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Re: ISABEL
      #11216 - Sun Sep 07 2003 08:10 PM

From NWS San Juan area forecast discussion:

LAST NIGHTS RUN OF THE MRF WAS VERY INTERESTING...BRINGING ISABEL
JUST NORTH BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA AS IT MOVED VERY SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE SE BAHAMAS. A LOT OF QUESTIONS REMAIN CONCERNING THE
FORECAST OF ISABEL BEFORE WE CAN CONSIDER THIS MRF SOLUTION JUST
YET...BUT IF THE OVERALL FORECAST VERIFIES REASONABLY...THEN A VERY
SLOW MOVING HURRICANE WILL MOVE FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT
TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AND TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOVE WNW OR NW
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION AND INTO THE SW ATLC...DUE TO A BLOCKING
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS.
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AND THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK
WILL THUS BE VERY INTERESTING...AND WILL BE A CONSTANTLY EVOLVING
AND CHANGING SCENARIO.


--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
      #11217 - Sun Sep 07 2003 08:55 PM

The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane had sustained winds as high as 140 knots = 160mph. Still a Cat V, but not a Camille which had sustained winds of 165 knots = 190mph.
ED


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HanKFranK
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Re: ISABEL
      #11218 - Sun Sep 07 2003 08:57 PM

12z euro has isabel moving wnw just east of the bahamas on the morning of 14 september. given that it tracks the early stages of isabel as a weak system, though the resulting position isnt much different than the consensus. GFS has something similar (although it stops practically every storm east of the bahamas and sends it to newfoundland). of course this euro and eta also keep wanting henri to nudge its way north once the core of the surface ridge moves northeast of it, with the storm running up towards new jersey. would have to be some kind of hybrid at that point, i assume.. think the NHC solution is probably closer.
that cape verde disturbance is now showing a 2.0 ssd rating. NHC had better go ahead and classify the damned thing or we'll have another system skipping the depression stage. tomorrow's forecast: out with fabian, in with juan. that would qualify as a nice burst, going from f to j in the space of 2 weeks. no sign of kate yet.
HF 0057z08september


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Tropics Guy
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Re: ISABEL
      #11222 - Sun Sep 07 2003 11:18 PM

Looking at the IR loop, Isabel seems to be moving more westerly than wnw in the last few frames, could be just a wobble though. Also 97L looking like it's already a TD.

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Domino
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cruising the Bahamas in a couple weeks...
      #11223 - Sun Sep 07 2003 11:22 PM

All this activity spinnng up off Cape Verde making me quite a bit concerned about my Bahama cruise on the 29th of this month. Guess I knew what I was getting into when I booked that one... Juan should be a couple days early - just gonna be interesting to see how many days till the next wave comes off Africa... *fingers crossed*

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Domino
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Cat 2....probably really a Cat 3 this morning...
      #11224 - Mon Sep 08 2003 05:39 AM

Looks like she is a Cat 3 this morning...although the NHC doesn't seem interested in jumping the gun at all on calling it a major hurricane till later today. Should be a major hurricane by the 11 o'clock advisary. Doubt they will do an intermediate given she is so far out in the middle of nowhere. She certainly is gonna be one to watch in coming days and I am very glad my cruise to the Bahamas isn't in the next week because I have the feeling the Bahamas is going to get a visit from a monster.

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
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Re: ISABEL
      #11225 - Mon Sep 08 2003 05:44 AM

In reply to:

LAST NIGHTS RUN OF THE MRF WAS VERY INTERESTING...BRINGING ISABEL
JUST NORTH BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA AS IT MOVED VERY SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE SE BAHAMAS. A LOT OF QUESTIONS REMAIN CONCERNING THE
FORECAST OF ISABEL BEFORE WE CAN CONSIDER THIS MRF SOLUTION JUST
YET...BUT IF THE OVERALL FORECAST VERIFIES REASONABLY...THEN A VERY
SLOW MOVING HURRICANE WILL MOVE FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT
TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AND TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOVE WNW OR NW
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION AND INTO THE SW ATLC...DUE TO A BLOCKING
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS.
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AND THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK
WILL THUS BE VERY INTERESTING...AND WILL BE A CONSTANTLY EVOLVING
AND CHANGING SCENARIO.




From the sounds of this and the latest NHC forecast track, it seems that the shortwave that will be weakening the ridge some this weekend will do little more than just slow the storm down some and move it west-northwest. Still not sure of exactly what to do with the system after day 5.


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StPeteGuy
Unregistered




Re: ISABEL
      #11226 - Mon Sep 08 2003 05:49 AM

Hmmm.. from what I am starting to hear from everyone one is that Isabel may be an uninvited visitor to the Bahamas in a week or so which makes me think that Miami may be her next stop? Or, is she to magically turn north before impact? (its ok to guess)

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J.J.
Unregistered




Isabel's track
      #11227 - Mon Sep 08 2003 05:53 AM

As a climatological curiosity, I think it's worth noting that most TCs that become major hurricanes well east of the Antilles do not hit the East Coast, and in fact usually recurve. Of course, this is nothing to base a forecast on, and it's not absolute, but I think it should be considered.

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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: ISABEL
      #11228 - Mon Sep 08 2003 06:10 AM

Kevin, the MRF extended solution is a bit on the scary side. Isabel looks real good this AM and is getting stronger each day. She has a beautiful eye and outflow. Sounds like she may be a real problem down the road, at this point the question is how much of a problem?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Kevin
Weather Master


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Loc: EC Florida
Re: ISABEL
      #11229 - Mon Sep 08 2003 06:22 AM

I also noticed that the 4 to 5 day period forecasts for Henri and Isabel are both slowing the storms, and big-time. Maybe there will be some type of a transient short wave moving through and weakening the ridge slightly? This will be an interesting week.

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JustMe
Weather Guru


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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: ISABEL
      #11230 - Mon Sep 08 2003 08:24 AM

Yes ...interesting is the best word I can think of also for Isabel. She does seem to be eyeing the Southeast USA.
My pencil is sharpened and I am closely waiting and watching this one. What about the one behind it? Could we possibly have 2 in the near future? Think goodness my property is high and able to with stand the rains we have been having. I certainly hope the rain subsides some prior to a visit from an unwanted guest if that should be the case.

Toni keep me posted ... gonna be a busy week for me and I won't be able to be here as much as I would like.


--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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A time for compliments...
      #11231 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:14 AM

Know we all love to criticize and complain around here regarding what we consider less than accurate or wonderful discussion from both TWC and NHC but this morning's tropical updates by John?? at TWC have been nothing short of wonderful... fast paced, lots of info, good discussion as opposed to reformatting of NHC discussion... worth the time both times I saw it.. on occaision go out of my way to catch him early in the morning and rest of the day mute you know who..

next...
jarvinen's discussion was one of the most enjoyable ive ever read..felt like it was written by a person not a program.. showed the reality of what you see vs what the models are predicting and tho erring on the side of caution (w/o dropsondes...) gave good discussion on probable strength of Isabel and reasoning for keeping it at lower number for the next few hours.

excellent...
both of them... a real joy to be tracking with that type of discussion

like to see some discussion here on how Juan plays into all of this and could someone post the link please to the NASA pics..

thanks bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
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nrl gives it away
      #11232 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:35 AM

14L is now listed as a 30kt depression on the NRL site.. as usual, an hour and a half before the NHC puts out advisories. there are now about 20 degrees of separation between isabel and this system, so it shouldnt be beaten to death by its predecessor. note that most global models take it NW in the eastern atlantic. guidance is fairly clustered on isabel at 5 days.. just north of the virgin islands. 06Z GFS has a very unpleasant solution, by the way. lets hope that the models are failing to maintain the upper trough ahead of isabel, and that it won't weaken or progress.. otherwise the storm will be in the bahamas next week.
HF 1335z08september


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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GFS just basically redrew Donna... take a look
      #11233 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:03 AM

i mean about as close as you can get from that far away

http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hurr/hurtrack/

very interesting... keep feeling her presence this year..real strong, something about all these cape verde rollers in september... keep watching

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
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but here's a secure thought to keep...
      #11234 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:11 AM



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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
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Re: LOL
      #11235 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:12 AM

theres a good sized upper trough and strong subsidence trailing isabel, and after looking at wv i can see that it is affecting the new system behind it. 14L will have to stay south of this digging upper trough and not speed ahead into it, or it probably won't survive. based on this.. should develop slowly if anything.
HF 1412z08september


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LoisCane
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HERE's the thought
      #11236 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:12 AM

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_climo.html

have a good morning gang... catch up on some sleep its going to be a wild week i think of tracking

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: HERE's the thought
      #11237 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:49 AM

I fixed a lot of issues with the display of advisories on the top... Sorry folks I was moving out of state all week (Bad week to move I know) and I'll be busy most this week too.

Least I can check the site now. Keep an eye out on Isabel.


And TD#14 .... I picked the wrong week to move.

Edited by MikeC (Mon Sep 08 2003 10:52 AM)


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
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Re: HERE's the thought
      #11238 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:51 AM

Isabel now Cat 3 cane., TD 14 develops., I guess climatology is right about Sept 10 being the peak of the season as it's going to be an active week.

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bobbyboi
Registered User


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Re: A time for compliments...
      #11239 - Mon Sep 08 2003 11:02 AM

In reply to:

excellent...
both of them... a real joy to be tracking with that type of discussion




Agreed. Although, I think most of the discussions this season have been excellent. Especially Fabian's.

Bobby

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Bobby


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Robert
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1935 labor day hurricane
      #11240 - Mon Sep 08 2003 11:47 AM

Actully it was greater then 140knts no one measured the winds in that storm only the pressure and the gradient wich existed in that storm was only comparible to an f5 tornado where miami and key west had pressure upward of a 1000 millibars and winds barely reaching tropical storm force islamarada and places that that the 8 mile wide eye went over had a pressure of 892 millibars the second strongest atlantic hurricane pressure ever measured, and the strongest hurricane ever to hit the united states. that gradient suggested winds of 200mph or greater.

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ALex
Unregistered




TD14 and the northward forcast
      #11241 - Mon Sep 08 2003 12:47 PM

Why does it look like TD14 is going to be pulled north? It doesnt look so healthy now, but it should survive. If it remains weak, wont it get pulled further west?

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Beach
Unregistered




Sure is Purdy
      #11242 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:01 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Sure looks awesome from space.


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MoparMitch
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Re: HERE's the thought
      #11243 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:23 PM

Going out on a limb - but I think Isabel will be a Fish Spinner...
looking at the latest WV loop
click here to see the WV loop Isabel will be doing battle with a trough that seems to be holding its ground. Indeed, it looks as if Isabel has taken a little jog - more wnw.

What do you all think?

mitch...


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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Fabien Video Feed
      #11244 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:32 PM

Got this from Weathervine. Here's a clip of some Cat-2 conditions you can look at of the eyewall crossing Bermuda. It looks pretty intense, but you'll need Windows Media in order to view it.

Fabien Eye-Wall Video Footage

As to TD #14 (?)/Juan, there will be a weakness in the wake of Isabel that will make him a fish spinner.

Steve


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LoisCane
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interesting storm to compare to... 1919
      #11245 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:35 PM

just interesting reading

as for Isabel...sorry she is chugging north of west..to wnw..

1919 Hurricane

trying to find that site from unisys that has the track for this storm..anyway...something to think on .. i think

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Sep 08 2003 07:50 PM)


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LoisCane
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here's track.. blend of one that didnt make it and isabel
      #11246 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:39 PM

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1919/index.html

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Hey Lois...
      #11247 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:41 PM

You gotta try that "URL" command for those long links. You copy the link, click the "URL" Button (under Instant UBB Code). It prompts you for the link and you paste it. After you hit enter, it prompts you for whatever you want to call it (e.g. IR Loop). That way those consecutive character strings won't fatten up the posts until they run off the screen. No criticism, it's just hard to have to scroll back and forth to read a post.

Steve


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Kimmie at work
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Re: Sure is Purdy
      #11248 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:41 PM

Fabian and now Isabel.....very beautiful storms to look at. Some of the prettiest in a while. Looks like Isabel is tracking more west than north right now. Cycloneye, I hope you are watching closely, we are praying that your island not get a visit from Isabel. How can something so lovely to behold be so destructive? How soon before they start doing 3 hour updates instead of 6? Kimmie

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Bill
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Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11249 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:49 PM

NHC doesn't seem to see it....could definitely influence track and intensity....

IHS,

Bill


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Bill
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Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11250 - Mon Sep 08 2003 01:52 PM

Storm is gaining a lot of latitude, departing from the progs....

IHS,

Bill



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javlin
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Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11251 - Mon Sep 08 2003 02:08 PM

Some of the steering wind graphs show a NW move and if it holds a SW move tomorrow.

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Brad in Miami
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Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11252 - Mon Sep 08 2003 02:13 PM

NHC definitely sees the upper low, and wrote about it in the 5 am discussion. But they mentioned that models suggest it will weaken and move to the west, and have relied on that guidance. I think it will be another 24 hours or so before we know if that will verify, so there may be a bit of a more N component than predicted until that time without forcing the NHC to re-think its thought of a more W motion later in the period.

But of course the models may be wrong about that feature - I hope so. I'd love to see a fish spinner!

Here's from the 5 am discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/14. ISABEL IS MOVING IN THIS
DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BUT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER COLD LOW THAT IS DEVELOPING
TO THE WEST OF ISABEL. THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THIS COLD LOW MAY BE ADDING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE MOTION. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS EVENTUALLY MOVE THIS
SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST AND WEAKEN IT.


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Brad in Miami
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Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11253 - Mon Sep 08 2003 02:27 PM

And actually, even though there might have been a more northward wobble a while ago (as Mitch pointed out), there might have been a more westward wobble the last hour or so. (Hard to tell how much of this was actual motion or just the eye wobbling.)

Regardless, since the 11 am advisory came out, it appears that the motion has averaged out to about 300 degrees, maybe 310 but I think closer to 300. This isn't far off the NHC's initial estimate of 290 degrees in the 11 am advisory, so I think it's too early to conclude that the NHC understimated the effect of that upper low.

But of course, the majority of storms in that area end up being fish spinners, so if you're a betting person you'll come out better in the long run if you always take the odds and bet fish.

Bet on fish, pray for fish.


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Bill
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Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11254 - Mon Sep 08 2003 02:40 PM

HELP==site administrators! Another post eaten!

I will try again---

Thanks for the answer re: 5am discussion. I did not see that one.

In re: forecast of upper low weakening or getting out of the way...the track record so far this yr has been about 0% verification in this regard....so, seems the storm will jog a bit north, before returning to a w-wnw path. In fact, that may be happening now.

The trof/low looked pretty puny on WVI.

IHS,

Bill


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doug
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Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11255 - Mon Sep 08 2003 03:25 PM

The weather guys have been pretty good this year so far and they are definitely cautious on this one...the movement is pretty solid north of due west...right on the line predicted...if it flattens out before this time tomorrow I think it will strike land some where,...to me the point of demarcation is 25N/75W ...storms that cross 25N east of that point rarely turn back west...storms that cross 75n south of that point lmor often than not hit land EDS>

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Brad in Miami
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Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11256 - Mon Sep 08 2003 03:31 PM

But of course, as with everything in tropical weather, there are some notable exceptions to that 25/75 rule, such as Andrew, Hugo, and Betsy.

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joepub1a
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Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11257 - Mon Sep 08 2003 03:50 PM

Isabel is right about where she should be, maybe just a tad north. The later models continue to shift a little more south, bring back memories of Bertha. A WSW move still is being shown, making it possible for Isa to be south of PR in 4-5 days. I know watching it now that might not seem possible, but almost all seem to nail at least the northern leewards. I don't think she'll start heading due west until allmost 50W, looking at the WV image, in really starts digging south right about there.

Really is another pretty storm. The Atlantic is holding a beauty contest this year; it's been a while since that happened.

Joe in JAX


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Kimmie at work
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Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11258 - Mon Sep 08 2003 03:57 PM

How will the ULL ahead of Isabel affect her? It seems more pronounced as the afternoon wears on?

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Steve H.
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Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11259 - Mon Sep 08 2003 04:15 PM

Her only chance to escape the the northern Atlantic is right about now! She's tempted, but not going to. The bad thing here is that she'll be getting under the ridge at a point that will take her a long way (at least 75 west IMO). How far beyond that we don't know yet, but she's been at about a 310 heading this afternoon. This is going to be a fun week. Next week might not be so fun!! Cheers!

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jlauderdal
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Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11260 - Mon Sep 08 2003 04:17 PM

she isnt escaping anywhere for a very long time...to much ridging in place for at least 7 days..yes at least 75w and probably to 80 which is EC of Florida

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Ira
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Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11261 - Mon Sep 08 2003 04:19 PM

Off the top of my head I can think of two other September
hurricanes that followed tracks comparable to the predicted one for Isabelle.

Fredrick, in 1979 and Georges, in 1998. As I recall Fredrick came NW from about the same location as Isabelle and did a SW dive just before reaching the northeast Caribbean. It then crossed the length of Cuba before turning into the Gulf. Georges followed a similar path but came further north
between Florida and Cuba.

I guess I recall these vividly since they both impacted Mississippi.

Ira
Columbia, MS


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Bill
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TD 14 is tanking...
      #11262 - Mon Sep 08 2003 04:34 PM

Looks like it is getting sheared and dried out. Unless it flares again tonight--it's a goner.

IHS,

Bill


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bobbi
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RIP Henri however
      #11263 - Mon Sep 08 2003 05:55 PM

notice more than a few people insist it will be out ther ein some way or the other for a while

td14? I think its a bit too early to write it off...

maybe... a near Cat 4 out there needs to dance center stage in the central atlantic right now...

beautiful... dancing just north of west

hey cyclone... watch out, please

bobbi
ps... going to wait for a few more model runs and watch what happens before wondering on where it will be next weekend..

first comes the islands


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HanKFranK
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Re: RIP Henri however
      #11264 - Mon Sep 08 2003 07:12 PM

td 14 has something bad wrong with it.. losing its convection right along near the ITCZ. might not ever be juan if this keeps up. perhaps the wave approaching behind it will inject some moisture or flood out some of the mid level dry air that seems to be intruding.. but if it doesnt, this weak system will degenerate into the monsoon trough. needless to say i think the official forecast and most of the model runs curving it up have the wrong idea about it developing quickly... probably just trudge westward for the near future if it survives.
one other note before isabel.. watch the rather weak wave near the central caribbean. several globals track it slowly westward for the near future, and it may be in a favorable environment in the western caribbean. with henri out of the way it will be entering an area where the pattern favors development.
that said.. isabel. it's done the strengthening i'd guessed it would, now motion becomes the big issue. it's still climbing wnw.. and will have to make that model consensus westward bend in the next day or so to not throw the lot of them. there was a good bit of clustering earlier, and there still is.. but some of them bend isabel ridiculously southwestward in the long range.. do wonder what's causing that oddity. the bend isnt in the official, for reasons stated in the discussion.. but if we start seeing it, the NE caribbean becomes a very dangerous place in about four days. i'll leave the long term position speculation to the rest of you.. until it's getting close to the islands and medium range modeling starts placing it near the u.s. or elsewhere.
all the oohs and aahs about how beautiful isabel is.. let it be beautiful 1500 miles out to sea. it's too powerful now to look pretty anywhere else.
HF 2312z08september


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javlin
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Re: RIP Henri however
      #11265 - Mon Sep 08 2003 07:22 PM

site that gives some steering currents http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.GIF

Edited by javlin (Mon Sep 08 2003 07:24 PM)


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57497479
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Isabel
      #11266 - Mon Sep 08 2003 07:33 PM

I agree that no one needs that type of beauty on their front or back door step. But Oh my, just look at her out there, she is magnificent looking on sat loops today. Thats the pic I have been waiting to see.

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All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

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LoisCane
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the WSW bend...
      #11267 - Mon Sep 08 2003 08:04 PM

Yeah...until that WSW tug on some of the models goes away we have to really keep an eye on the track. Some show recurvature possibilities but when you cut he distance between the other ones its still west bound.

Imagine it just sees a stronger ridge than the others do... i guess... would like to know what keeps them so persistently so.

That being said...they probably will all straighten out and show recurvature soon.

any thoughts..would love to hear them

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Alex
Unregistered




Westward turn?
      #11268 - Mon Sep 08 2003 08:09 PM

It looks like Isabel may be starting the slow westward turn that is much forcasted in the models. Or it may just be a wobble

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met
Unregistered




Re: the WSW bend...
      #11270 - Mon Sep 08 2003 08:38 PM

there is going to be stong high pressure ridge in s.e. and over fla. down the road. afraid no big recurve with this powerful and dangerous hurricane.

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Frank P
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Re: Westward turn?
      #11271 - Mon Sep 08 2003 08:40 PM

Gonna be interesting to see just how far west this beast will go.... easy for me to say, no big deal, in all probability this thing should recurve out to sea, another fish spinner (except for them poor Bermuda folks)...

If I had a hunch, that would be my first inclination, a safe bet .... but I don't have a good read on this one yet.... gonna really depend on that Bermuda High... stays strong, bad news US.... I'm hearing talk of a trough that is supposed to come down this weekend..... we'll see what impact this has, if any, on the ridge... not impossible for this thing to affect the SE US or even GOM, although the GOM might be a stretch right now... other cape verde storms have made the long run across the atlantic and made it to the GOM ... a few that come to mind include; Georges, Storm of 1947, Andrew, Betsy with her famous loop in the Atlantic, I'm sure there are many others.. ... of course each and every one of em were different, and this one will be too.... just the same, with these things anything and everything is possible....

I thought the models had their best performance of the year with Fabian, maybe in the past two years for that matter... always said that models perform much better with mature systems as opposed the weaker developing ones... now will they get two in a row?????

Local mets (radio) in the NO area are already taking about a cold front that should shunt the system off to the north... and should not pose any threat to the NO area.... they didn't really go into any specifics on just why and how all this was going to work but they are already discussing the approaching front.... hmmmmm


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Steve H.
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Re: Westward turn?
      #11272 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:03 PM

Its early in the game, but I don't like the set up. I'll leave it at that. the ridge is further west on this one than Fabian, and the ECMWF shows it at 22N/75W heading WNW. The ridge will be strong, but for how long. Trough talk is hall talk for the weekend, and since Henri isn't there like the models thought earlier, well, as the HPC discussion says, the trough is currently progged to stay in the heart land of the CONUS. Way early, but I don't like. Strange night in central Florida, with a cool breeze from the west, like a trough came through, probably the following wind behind Henri. Isabel is turning west now, you can see the E - W orientation that previously was N - S, and the convection is on the west side. The eye will follow. Cheers!!

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Cycloneye
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Re: Westward turn?
      #11273 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:10 PM

I dont like what is taking place tonight as she is more powerful probably a cat 4 at 11 PM and showing signs of a more west motion.Is it a wobble that intense hurricanes do or the west turn that has begun and if the second is confirmed then islander,me and the fellow islanders in the northern islands will have a big problem.

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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Tropics Guy
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Re: Westward turn?
      #11274 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:27 PM

Why are some of the models showing an eventual SW turn into the islands? What is the reasoning behind this, is the ridge to the north building strongly southwestward or is this in reaction to the ULL to the southwest of isabel. If someone could shed some light on this reasoning, i'd appreciate it. Here's a model link showing the eventual SW move.

http://files.hurricanealley.net/images/AL1303TRP.gif

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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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BJG
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Ridge?
      #11275 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:31 PM

Could anyone please post the latest model runs with regard to the high pressure ridge forecast on Sunday-Monday as well as the expected impact the proposed trough will have...thank you>

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Mary K.
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Re: Westward turn?
      #11276 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:33 PM

At this strength, CAT 4, Won't she spin herself out by the time she gets close enough to E.C. to make a difference? I know that a strong storm lasted a month in the Pacific, but it did not have islands to cross.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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Frank P
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Re: Westward turn?
      #11277 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:37 PM

That's certainly an interesting model run TG.. you take the average of em and boy Puerto Rico and Cycloneye might have a serious problem on their hands... I have not look at much data tonight but my first guess would be the ridge building back into the area and Isadore being steered by the southern most edge of the ridge's perimeter.... tropical systems just love to ride the outer perimeters of these big high pressure ridges.. great for steering..... and when you have them around it makes for an easier forcast for where they might go..... just my guess however as to the WSW track...

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Westward turn?
      #11278 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:43 PM

I would say and I think Frank P. eluded to this also... the High is going to be the main factor in "I"'s travel. This may be the best "Fear Factor NHC Style" yet! I would look at all info day by day. Your model map is accurate for 18Z as best I can tell... wait and see

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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HanKFranK
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Re: Westward turn?
      #11280 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:29 PM

wobble maybe. if it's doing it for four hours or so you can start considering it a turn. think maybe i'm starting to see how the upper pattern ahead of isabel is evolving. upper trough ahead is stretching and disconnecting, with the northeastern of the three upper centers nudging east, the middle one pinwheeling westward around the large one to the south (which is heading west itself). as the trough to the west breaks down it may become an outflow jet, with the ridging currently north of the trough building across the hurricane. meanwhile the upper trough behind isabel continues to dig in, in tandem with its advance. basically there will be two ventilating upper lows on either side, with a ridge built across to the north.. if i'm reading the wv evolution right. models are trending toward the remnant disturbed weather with henri to shear away, though some persist the disturbed weather. the upper system ahead of isabel is tracked wnw to near the bahamas, then GFS degenerates it to a trough and sends it out as shortwave over the east grabs it.. around the weekend.. while some of the upper energy associated with the shortwave splits and digs into the central u.s. the result of this is the subtropical ridge north of isabel advancing into the southeastern united states in about a week... with the storm advancing underneath.
for this to verify it will take a lot of things happening together.. models will evolve closer to the truth over time.. all it takes is the model tendencies to weaken upper troughs too quickly, or time shortwaves wrong or get the amplification of ridges/troughs incorrect down the road.. but if things verify even close to the current trends we could have a very bad situation on our hands next week.
other things to watch..
1) TD 14. if the convection doesnt regenerate in the next 12hrs or so, call it dead. watch to see if it goes up ahead of the upper trough ahead of it, or if it keeps low and nudges westward as weak system.
2) wave near 70w. this is a weak wave, but it may move into a favorable environment by late in the week west of jamaica.
3) henri's tail. trough tails back from henri's low towards south florida. upper ridging that henri originally developed under is the currently the western piece of the subtropical ridge.. trough under ridge.. you get the picture. low to the north would have to weaken for it to become a significant feature.
4) pacific development. watch the ITCZ disturbance near 90w, a developing eastpac system would alter the nearby upper air features, propagating upstream into the atlantic. it might also precipitate more atlantic development
5) fabian's wake. isabel is north of it, and shouldnt cross it (if it follows the NHC path) for about 3 days. still, it crossed fabians early path a few hours ago, and the convective tops have weakened some (may be an effect of dry air entrainment, or the start of eyewall contraction cycles).
there, thats enormous and probably pseudo-science as i've possibly analyzed past the extent of what i know about synoptic weather.. but just maybe i've got some of the ideas right.
HF 0230z09september


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Jim M
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Re: Westward turn?
      #11281 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:29 PM

The big question is, why are some of the models taking the WSW movement? Really too early to tell if they are actually picking up on something or just exhibiting a model bias. I think the answer should be more apparent in 48 hours. It was stated earlier that the models tended to handle well formed traditional systems well. I concur. At least through 72 hours. Not really ready to trust any model much beyond that. Going to be interesteing to see how the system and current evolve over the next week.

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Tropics Guy
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Re: Westward turn?
      #11282 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:35 PM

Thanks Frank P and storm cooper for your insight on the movement. Local meteorologists are all over this here in South Fla, some saying the SW perimeter of the ridge will erode in time to allow a north turn east of the bahamas, others being more cautious and taking a wait and see approach, one position they do agree on though is that by this weekend isabel will be near or just north of the leewards.

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Brad in Miami
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Re: Westward turn?
      #11283 - Mon Sep 08 2003 11:06 PM

I second those thank yous Tropics Guy, but while we're passing them out, I give one to HankFrank, too. Very helpful insights today (as always, but with Isabel I'm paying a lot more attention to the board).

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HanKFranK
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11pm advisory
      #11284 - Mon Sep 08 2003 11:40 PM

the 11pm discussion goes in to some of the things i was thinking about.. one point it negates is the timing on isabel hitting fabians SST wake... sooner than i'd guessed. the sw bias on some of the globals is explained.. attributed to the upper low following the storm. thats the critical interaction in the next couple of days to look for.. if the storm starts edging south of west then we've got an imminent problem for the islands. NHC is careful to add the turn back to the wnw at the end of every forecast track.. though the reasoning isnt explained. i suppose its based on a suspicion of a ridge weakness theyre not ready to take to court. most bothersome model has been the ECMWF.. tomorrow evening when the 12Z runs for september 9th are posted, i'd start worrying if the track keeps going into the bahamas. note that GFS is going back and forth, but at least two runs have shown isabel heading north to new england/nova scotia. more give the familiar stop at the turks and caicos-bermuda-cape race solution... but thats GFS for ya.
td 14 looked better last night before it was classified. the cat 1 hurricane forecast is replaced by a weak t.s. forecast.. i give it 40% at surviving right now. juan will have to wait.
HF 0340z09september


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Robert
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Fabian surf
      #11285 - Mon Sep 08 2003 11:59 PM

Well swell from fabian where i was stuart florida i go to power plant to surf though was head high with occasional 1 foot over head. Beutifull mackers that you can get barreld on. friday was Awsome Unfortunutly my friend matt broke his neck and that cut the days surfing short he will be okay and is lucky he can still walk. lesson for the day dont dive through the back of the wave ever i will no longer after this accident.

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MiamiChris
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Re: 11pm advisory
      #11286 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:00 AM

It would not surprise me to see Isabel die a quick death on its way across the Leeward Islands. The mid/upper level low currently in that area has slowed to a crawl and has remained intact. The upper level low to the east of Isabel is following along as planned (currently providing good outflow to the east). It seems reasonable to me that these two ULLs will soon begin a squeeze play. Isabel appears to be residing in an ever shrinking envelope. If that envelope becomes too restrictive, Isabel's center will be driven southwest and exposed while the bulk of the convection is sheared off toward the north and east. I hate to be so graphic - especially when describing the demise such a beautiful storm. Hard to imagine such a sordid scenario in light of the storms current intensity, but you never know. IMHO.

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HanKFranK
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?
      #11287 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:07 AM

well, thats one for isabel pulling a debby. off the wall forecast of the year award goes to miami chris if he nails it. i give it a roughly -1% chance of ever coming about.
HF 0407z09september


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HanKFranK
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heh
      #11288 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:12 AM

graphic! disemboweled hurricane... sordid! honestly.. its not like a puppy getting hit by a car. more like a rabid kodiak bear getting put down by animal control.
oh, poor t.d. 14 is melting before my eyes.. i can't bear to watch!
just goofin'
HF 0412z09september


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MiamiChris
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Re: ?
      #11289 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:20 AM

I know it's pretty far fetched. Perhaps I'm still a little crazy from all the Gator in my belly. I really would like to see Isabel live a long, healthy life. I have nothing but respect for her. She may just have to work a little bit harder than her predecessor.

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Robert
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Re: ?
      #11290 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:27 AM

Dont worry this bitch means buisness. My neigbors in the bahamas are going to be very unhappy campers come this weekend.

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BillD
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Re: ?
      #11292 - Tue Sep 09 2003 01:02 AM

Not so far fetched... If I remember correctly the 00Z NOGAPS had Isabel falling apart just as it crossed the Leewards. But the 12Z is totally different.

Bill


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Floridacane
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Re: Isabel
      #11293 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:30 AM

This is a beautiful pic of Isabel, I just wish it showed her going the other way.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/images/isabel090803-1945z.jpg


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Domino
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Re: Isabel
      #11294 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:57 AM

Looking at the most recent sat loops in comparison to those at the last advisary...making me think we now have at least a 145mph storm. Either I 1. have no clue what I'm talking about or 2. think we're gonna see T numbers of 6.5. I'm hesistant to say the NHC will make it a 5 till at least 11A - especially if we see the same overnight crew..which has tended to want to be on the conservative side.

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Domino
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Re: Isabel
      #11295 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:48 AM

Well either I was wrong in my estimate or I was right about the night crew being conservative. The latest IR images seemed much more symetrical with colder tops than at 11p...but who am I to second guess. I'm just the strange guy that writes on here at 3am when everyone else is sleeping

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LadyStorm
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Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11296 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:49 AM

Isabel is sure going to be a tough one to predict what she will do within the next week. Does she become a fish spinner, go into the carribean or head for the US east cost?
I found a site thats fun to play with. It has previous storms and you pick the storm, hit the play button and watch them move across the screen.
http://html.nbc5i.com/sh/idi/weather/hurricanes/hurricanetracker.html

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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javlin
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Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11297 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:28 AM

The ridge looks to be building to the W.yesterday at 70W this morning almost 80W,also some extremity's in the GOM further W .The pressure out their is probably weaker.If the data correct for the most part should maybe see the WSW possibly start NE of the Leeward Islands.I make the assumptions on the info I posted on pg 5 might all be bogus but looks to following the ridge. Probably just a wobble W in the last frame. The sight I posted earlier is http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.GIF

Edited by javlin (Tue Sep 09 2003 08:35 AM)


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LoisCane
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Re: Isabel to Domino
      #11298 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:44 AM

It's okay Domino...there are a lot of strange people round here, you could be doing a lot worse at 3 am I am sure.

Nice not to have a boring sure thing out there.... in a day or so we'll know which way she's going to play it.

More than you can say for the other aspects of our life..it seems.

At least you got something to watch.

Bobbi

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spky2001
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Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11299 - Tue Sep 09 2003 08:33 AM

Does anyone have any thoughts on what the high pressure will be doing after day 5? Will it have built more west, moved east, weakened or split?



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Steve H.
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Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11300 - Tue Sep 09 2003 08:56 AM

Split, then possibly rebuild underneath what was Henri or it remnants; or split, then the high establishes itself further NE over the weekend, leaving weak ridging behind. That will change by 3pm! LOL!! Cheers!!

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Cycloneye
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Do the northern islands are out of the woods or not?
      #11301 - Tue Sep 09 2003 09:39 AM

The west turn may haved started this morning but will it move WSW as some models project because if that happens then we here in the islands will have to deal with more than a band or two passing by.

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Tropics Guy
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Re: Do the northern islands are out of the woods or not?
      #11302 - Tue Sep 09 2003 09:46 AM

Isabel's motion the last few frames look like it's heading just north of west, so the west turn has begun which may not be good news for the leewards.

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HanKFranK
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model camps
      #11303 - Tue Sep 09 2003 09:50 AM

those ECMWF runs sure are troublesome, but i've noticed that while they continue to advance the storm far to the west, the globals in general have been slowing the storm, some adding the sw wiggle that is now showing in the official forecast. whereas about 48 hours ago the forecast position was just NE of the virgin islands, now it's just N of the virgin islands.. for example. euro is taking it 3-400 miles west of there in that time. some of the statistical leading models from the NHC suite are leaning towards the ukmet, a relatively straight wnw track. GFDL is like a northward version of GFS, while the beta advection bunch and NOGAPS have the exaggerated sw jerk over the next 3 days that brings the storm very close to the islands. GFS i'm taking with some skepticism.. in various runs it's taking current TD 14 to the north of isabel.. catching it up and feeding it to her.. and weakening the ridge. thats all about a week out, and every GFS run at that range will have significant flaws and run to run changes. just don't believe that.. leaning more towards the modeling that keeps TD 14 weak and moves it as little as possible.
so now, if anything, isabel won't be to--or just north of--the northern islands until the weekend, not friday as earlier progged... so whether a real u.s. threat will exist for next week won't be apparent until the weekend. that's unless isabel starts moving faster.. and since it's advancing with the upper flow, i'd expect the global consensus on westward progression to be essentially correct.
HF 1350z09september


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HanKFranK
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Re: model camps
      #11304 - Tue Sep 09 2003 09:51 AM

leading=leaning

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jlauderdal
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Re: model camps
      #11305 - Tue Sep 09 2003 09:59 AM

interesting because FLorida NWS offices like a trough albeit weak to come down late in the weekend which may be responsible for slowing the system down late in the period but of course not picking it up because its weak and than the trough pulls out and we know what happens then..the ridge builds back in and our system starts a wnw again..we saw hints of this yesterday on some of the models. GFS is confused as it doesnt seem to handle this scenario well. isable gets stuck after making to around PR and than resumes its motion as trough pulls out if in fact trough has any influence on the system at all. its going to take alot to knock down the big ridge that is buildoing in..if the ridge is actually strong enough to push a system wsw for a day or two we know its a monster and wont erode easily.

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cajun
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Realtime Sattelite
      #11306 - Tue Sep 09 2003 10:33 AM

For the last hour the NRL Sat. Loop has been updating every minuite. Since when do we have realtime Sattlelite?

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Steve H.
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Re: model camps
      #11307 - Tue Sep 09 2003 10:40 AM

Not to be picky, but I haven't seen anything in any of the NWS Florida discussions this morning ( From 2 am to present) that state that Isabel will bypass the trough and the ridge will rebuild. None of the NWS offices even mentioned Isabel. Provide a link if you have one; inquiring minds want to know!!

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joepub1a
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Re: Realtime Sattelite
      #11308 - Tue Sep 09 2003 10:42 AM

I thought you were kidding, so I went and looked myself. Wow!! Makes a great little movie, very very slow.........

Sure look closer to due west to me, like 280. NHC taking her to 21N 64.5 W, moving w/wnw. The big game of chicken is almost on for the east coast.....

Joe in Jax


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jlauderdal
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Re: model camps
      #11309 - Tue Sep 09 2003 10:48 AM

that is my speculationa as to what may happen not theirs..however they do mention a trough coming down..nws doesnt talk publicly beyond their forecast period.

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firestar
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Re: Realtime Sattelite
      #11310 - Tue Sep 09 2003 10:51 AM

I checked out that link also: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil:80/sat-bin/display10.cgi
Can anyone else see the spinning starting up at 20n/60w just in front of Isabel? Any
idea's what's up with that?
Thanks!


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Steve H.
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Re: model camps
      #11311 - Tue Sep 09 2003 10:53 AM

OK.....just wanted to know...anyone know an easy link to the tropical model suite. The WREL link on this site isn't updated....still shows 9/5 data. Thanks in advance.

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Tgunn
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Re: model camps
      #11312 - Tue Sep 09 2003 11:03 AM

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

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Steve H.
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Re: model camps
      #11313 - Tue Sep 09 2003 11:09 AM

That only shows the model data through 9/05/03!

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Mitch at Work
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Re: model camps
      #11314 - Tue Sep 09 2003 11:23 AM

Hit Refresh

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Joe1
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Re: model camps
      #11315 - Tue Sep 09 2003 11:52 AM

Steve heres a link to some models as of 9/9 12Z...
Joe

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/13LTRP.html


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Steve H.
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Re: model camps
      #11316 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:36 PM

Thanks joe, my refresh button isn't doing it

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islander
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Re: model camps
      #11317 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:37 PM

Where are you looking at? The caption says 9/9/03 at 10:14...

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Steve H.
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Re: model camps
      #11318 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:54 PM

At WREL "scroll to the bottom of page" model output. I can see the updated graphic, but not the 120 text coordinates.

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Brad in Miami
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Re: model camps
      #11319 - Tue Sep 09 2003 01:01 PM

WREL just connects you to the Ohio State site's model output, and that site hasn't refreshed since 9/5. I've always used Ohio State's site to get the text of those models, so I can't offer an alternative. In a day or two I'll poke around and try to find an alternate source, if no one else posts one.

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MoparMitch
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Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11320 - Tue Sep 09 2003 01:24 PM

I think we can get a hint of where she may go by looking at the Upper Low in front of her. As long as Isabel does not try to overtake the upper low, it should follow suit.

Although the latest sat imagery suggests another one of those "wobbles" to the North.

what do you all think?

mitch...


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Brad in Miami
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Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11321 - Tue Sep 09 2003 01:40 PM

Re: wobble

Overall motion since the 11 am discussion was issued has tracked fairly close to the NHC's forecast - maybe just a tiny bit north, but very close - so little wobbles like that don't mean much with respect to the long-term track. NHC predicted that at 8 pm EST Isabel would be at 20.1N/48.4W, so before reading too much into a wobble, wait to see if, and how much, it's above 20.1 when it crosses 48.4 +/-.


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MoparMitch
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Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11322 - Tue Sep 09 2003 01:47 PM

Trust me, I am NOT reading into any "wobble" especially given her current environment. I got myself in trouble with Fabian when I said that it took "a hard left" and you guys jumped all over that statement. Therefore, I am taking great care when talking about direction.

mitch...

Edited by MoparMitch (Tue Sep 09 2003 01:48 PM)


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Frank P
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Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11323 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:02 PM

Looks to me its already past 20.1 on the NRL loop.... still moving to the wnw from what I can tell, although the last frame appeared to be a wobble west, but the wobbles seemed to average out to that WNW track... so its going to be a little above the 8pm prediction, remains to be seen just how much, and the jury is still out on when and if it really does decide to go more on that more westerly track.... stay tuned.

You can get a really good look at the system using the NRL sat pix setting it on a 10 minute time frame, what a beautiful system this is right now...


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Bill
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Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11324 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:11 PM

Actually looks like we may get a major forecast bust---it seems to be turning more north and slowing down. Of course, slowing down could presage a change in direction, but I am not convinced. As I said the other day, NHC has been overforecasting the demise of upper lows all season.

Summary: Still a good chance Isabel will be a 'fish'. More so as time goes by and it is moving wnw to NW...even though in the last two advisories, it was trending more west...but not now.

Beginning a down phase in intensity too, it seems.

IHS,

Bill


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LoisCane
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wobbles north?
      #11325 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:12 PM

Wondering whether its possible that the upper level low is filling in at all and ..just looks different, very visible on visible imagery and usually its that visible on wv.

As for wobbling north..hard to say but it hasn't turned west.

Seems to not read the NHC advisories.

Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Tropics Guy
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Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11326 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:15 PM

She still seems to be heading in a WNW direction, though the storm seems to be stretched east to west a bit and there might have been a slight wobble to the left. This leads me to believe, and since she's above 20N lattitude now, that the leewards may be out of the woods, unless a W and WSW movement starts soon. It'll be intersesting to see the next model runs to see if they track her more north than originally forecasted.

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Cycloneye
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It is moving more north than predicted
      #11327 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:26 PM

That movement more north already passing the 20n line is great news for the northern islands because even if it takes a WSW motion it already be too far north to affect them.Right now it is well north from where Fabian was at that same longitud 47.5w.

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Tropics Guy
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Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11328 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:29 PM

thats "interesting" NOT" intersesting", I hate spelling errors.

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HanKFranK
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wobbles all the time
      #11329 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:30 PM

give it 'til tomorrow. if that wnw movement hasnt bent to the left by then, we can start wondering if the storm is going to just keep going on its merry way well north of the islands. as far as all these wobbles go.. i mean, there isn't a lot of useful information they provide us. if a storm is three hours from landfall wobbles can have large effects on exactly where the core of the storm goes.. but 1200 miles out in the atlantic theyre irrelevant.
i offer an alternative: there are larger scale forces at work here than the wobbling eye of a large hurricane.. lots of global atmospheric indicators, stuff that joe bastardi always refers to. i've never gone to any lengths to dig up any of the info, other than a link to the SOI index i gleaned off of steve. last night i made a forum post for folks to add their input on this stuff.. i'm going to start it off with some SOI info later. so, if you want to do more than watch wobbles and wishcast, check it out later tonight, and i'll have an SOI link and some general information posted.
take it easy everybody.
HF 1830z09september


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clyde w.
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NEW Melbourne Discussion
      #11330 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:35 PM

This adds a little light to the post-5 day thinking:

SAT-TUE...RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CWA AS ATLANTIC TROUGH GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE RETURNS TO SEASONABLE LEVELS...SUGGESTING NEAR CLIMO
POPS...40 INLAND AND 30 COAST. HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE EXTREME SE BAHAMAS TUESDAY THEN TEMPORARILY SLOW/STALL AS
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/LIFTS NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL THREAT
FROM THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO BE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


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Brad in Miami
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Re: It is moving more north than predicted
      #11331 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:38 PM

lol about "jumping all over" the hard left statement Mitch -- I don't think anyone intended to be mean-spirited or anything like that. At least I hope not. And of course you're correct that there was a wobble north.

And yes, anyy wobble, even a couple tenths of a degree, could benefit the islands. My only point was that I definitely wouldn't get too excited about such a small difference from the NHC's (or model guidance's) forecast track at this point, because it isn't far off.

Below is the NHC's take on the ULL and Isabel in the 205 discussion. Nothing new, but still interesting:

WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE GLFMEX/WRN CARIBBEAN
AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN ATLC ALONG 25N77W 30N70W. THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE FEATURE...HOWEVER...IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT IS CENTERED 150 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N61W
AND IS MOVING WWD AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP. THE LOW IS MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH WWD THAT IT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE DIRECT INFLUENCE TO
HURRICANE ISABEL...ALTHOUGH ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT WILL
INDIRECTLY BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL ATLC THAT MAY STEER THE
HURRICANE ON A MORE WWD TRACK. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
W/NW OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS AND WILL BE POSITIONED JUST NE OF THE
BAHAMAS BY EARLY FRIDAY.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE CNTRL ATLC IS HURRICANE ISABEL. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE STORM APPEARS LESS THAN IDEAL
BUT ISABEL IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND DOES NOT SEEM
NEGATIVELY AFFECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED
ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF THE HURRICANE NEAR 20N40W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NWWD OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS SUCH...ELY
FLOW OVER ISABEL HAS OBSCURED THE EYE AT TIMES WITH CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF FROM EYEWALL TSTMS. THE ANTICYCLONE/RIDGE IS IN AN
ADVANTAGEOUS POSITION BY PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW JET OUT
OF THE N SEMICIRCLE AND MAINTAINING BENEFICIAL UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE.


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: wobbles north?
      #11332 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:47 PM

The upper low looks stronger and has moved somewhat to the west.....doesn't seem to be weakening or getting out of the way.

IHS,

Bill


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zoidy
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Re: wobbles all the time
      #11333 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:50 PM

New guy here on this forum. Just moved from Mass. to Florida (Spring Hill)..my first experience with ANY form of tropical storm (Henri). I am a COMPLETE NOVICE here, so I only have been lurking. This is a great forum, and a gaggle of knowlegable people here..praise to all you guys and gals. All this hurricane stuff scares the h#ll out of me, so I observe with revereance and awe and may shoot in a novice question every so often. That said, what are chances of any of these "major" canes hitting the West coast of Flrida..just North of Tampa?
Thanks guys..Zoidy


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Brad in Miami
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Re: wobbles all the time
      #11334 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:56 PM

Zoidy:

Click on this link Tampa strikes to see a list of storms that have hit Tampa.


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HanKFranK
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major canes
      #11335 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:57 PM

i'll get your question, zoidy. west coast of florida.. north of tampa. your region, if it's going to get whacked, usually takes it from the southwest. NHC has graphics on their site which provide information on the strike frequency for your area, how often you get storms, how often you get very powerful ones. i can tell you right now that section of the florida coast hasnt taken a direct hit from a hurricane since 1968. i can also tell you that though your chances aren't exceptional by florida standards, that section of the coast can get hit any time during the season, unlike some other sections of u.s. coastline.
HF 1857z09september


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Brad in Miami
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Re: wobbles all the time
      #11336 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:00 PM

Actually, I think (but am not sure) the link I provided gives the maximum winds of the storm, even if the winds were not that great at the time of landfall near Tampa - so it's probably not exactly what you want.

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zoidy
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Re: wobbles all the time
      #11337 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:03 PM

Thanks Brad
Interesting....it APPEARS from that list that the West coast tends not to get the upper (level 2-5) canes. Is this because these are "back door" storms (coming overland from the East), or do Gulf canes tend to be smaller? Also..complete NOVICE question.. how strong do winds need to be before I have to worry about "shuttering" the house? I have a new home that is supposed to be built to withstand 130 mph winds....Thanks in advance for your opinions..
Zoidy


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Brad in Miami
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Re: model camps
      #11338 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:04 PM

Steve H:

Ohio State site's model output is now current (has the 9/9 18Z model text output).


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zoidy
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Re: major canes
      #11339 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:07 PM

HanKFranK..
Thanks for the comments..
Zoidy
"the nervous"


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Frank P
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Re: wobbles all the time
      #11340 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:16 PM

130 mph rated windows don't do well with 100 mph wind driven debris blowing against it... small tree limbs, twigs, branches all sound like machine gun straff hitting your windows, even in tropical storm force winds.... so, its the debris you better worry about hitting your windows, not just straight line winds.. and once they break, then all hell breaks loose...

as a general rule of thumb, I board up all south facing windows for 75 mph winds... but after Bill this summer, we had some 50-60 mph winds that made me wish I had boarded up... so, depending on the side of the storm I am on, I will start boarding up anytime the winds exceed 50-60 mph out of the south in my area... and all other windows on the east and west side of my house for 75 mph... I never board up the north windows because that part of my house is sheltered for the most part



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Kevin
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Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion
      #11341 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:16 PM

VERY interesting. Of course, all of this hinges on what Isabel does in the short term (whether it turns west or not, mainly).

So, what happens if Isabel slows/stalls? An upper level trough weakening and moving north..hmm. That would probably mean that the trough would pull out without carrying Isabel with it, so Florida probably gets claubered big time in the Wednesday to Friday timeframe. *But that is only one sceanrio, and it is long range.*

Wait and see, definitely wait and see.


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Beach
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Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion
      #11342 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:31 PM

Would you mind posting the link?
Thanks!


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Jamie
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Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion
      #11343 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:36 PM

Beach,

The NWS MLB Forecast discussion can be found here

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MLB/AFDMLB


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clyde w.
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Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion
      #11344 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:46 PM

Thanks Jamie.

Kevin--my thoughts exactly. Melbourne tends to highlight the dire possibilities earlier than any of the Florida NWS sites, but the scenario mentioned still would not bode well for anywhere in the peninsula. Just trying to wait and see, but this one looks a bit more ominous. Lots of time for things to change though...


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Steve H.
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Re: model camps
      #11345 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:51 PM

Thanks Brad

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Kevin
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West turn will begin SOON
      #11346 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:00 PM

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm6/wg8dlm6java.html

Ridge now building, steering currents are REALLY perking up in speed just west of Isabel. It's gonna turn soon. The ULL is moving west, but it's also weakening fast. You can tell on the lastest WV loop, the ULL is losing its defintion.

BTW...just got high speed cable internet in today. Used to have dial-up...boy were we missing out on some speed! The link I just posted takes about 15 seconds on my machine. Now I can really do some heavy-duty evaluating .


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Steve H.
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Re: West turn will begin SOON
      #11347 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:06 PM

Kevin, think this will speed up the forward motion of Isabel?? she seems to have been swimming against the tide IMO. Frankly I haven't mapped out the forecast of her forward speed

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Beach
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Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion
      #11348 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:08 PM

Thanks!

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Kevin
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Re: West turn will begin SOON
      #11349 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:11 PM

A motion towards the west at 18-20 mph in 24-36 hours looks to be in order I believe. It is absolutely AMAZING to see how some people on the other message boards are calling this thing a fish already. I'll bet you that half of them don't even use the steering currents link I provided. Steve-LOL-I'm not trying to call you and idiot or anything, but your brain is being littered from all of the junk on some of the other boards right now. Isabel will turn west within the next 12-24 hours, and probably closer to 12 than 24. A strong ridge is building in north of Isabel, and that's a fact.

Just watch Isabel carefully. We should have a much clearer idea of what the storm will do come the weekend.


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hypercane
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Re: West turn will begin SOON
      #11350 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:11 PM

Losing its definition? I don't claim to be a weather expert, but I'm looking at the water vapor loop, and to me it appears that the upper level low is becoming more broad, covering a wider area. I just don't see how Isabel is going to turn west. The steering out in front of it still looks like southerly flow to me, and indeed the storm seems to be heading purely NW. I don't see where this west turn will happen. But then again, I didn't see where Fabian was going to turn so abruptly north, either.

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Lisa NC
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Re: West turn will begin SOON
      #11351 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:17 PM

Her outflow bands tend to more east and west at the moment, seems like she is getting ready to turn more to the left. The swirl in front of Isa was there yesterday but has developed more convection today. Is there any chance something is trying to fire there?

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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Kevin
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Re: Hypercane
      #11352 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:25 PM

The center of the ULL is currently located at about 22N and 62W. Now...if you look carefully at the steering currents link that I posted, you can see the southwest-northeast orientation of the air flow around the ULL. Here's what we have:
1. The ULL is currently moving west, while the high pressure is building the north of it.
Isabel is essentially being steered by the high pressure completely. The flow that Isabel is in right now is still ese-wnw, thus a wnw movement overall. As Isabel hits the section of the high that is building, she will turn west. I think some may be confused about what is predominately steering Isabel. One look at the steering currents indicates that Isabel is currently being steered by the high pressure...the kink in the air around the ULL far enough west that it may not be influencing Isabel much at all right now.


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Brad in Miami
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Re: West turn will begin SOON
      #11353 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:26 PM

hypercane: may want to get more-informed input re: this matter, but I think the west turn should take place because of the huge high pressure ridge above Isabel; assuming there isn't a weakness in the ridge that the NHC isn't seeing, it should turn somewhat more westerly.

Therefore, if the ULL didn't continue its march westward, it would have more of a tendency to shear Isabel than to turn her north, because the high pressure ridge wouldn't allow her to turn abruptly north. (Assuming, of course, a weakness in that ridge doesn't develop; if one does, then the ULL can turn her north.)

Lisa: are you referring to the upper level low around 62 West? If so, it's always possible it could work its way down to the surface, but it's highly unlikely.


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Brad in Miami
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Re: West turn will begin SOON
      #11354 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:27 PM

I meant "AT LEAST somewhat more westerly," not "somewhat more westerly."

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hypercane
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Re: Hypercane
      #11355 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:30 PM

I gotcha...and I do see what you speak of, on that steering currents page. I am just having trouble reconciling that with what I see on the water vapor loop. Oh well, we'll see.

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Brad in Miami
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5 pm update out
      #11356 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:39 PM

more northward, closer to GFDL; steering currents weaken after 5 days

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Brad in Miami
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Re: 5 pm update out
      #11357 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:42 PM

If I wasn't clear there, what I wrote are some highlights from the 5 pm discussion

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Justin in Miami
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Too early to tell for me.
      #11358 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:48 PM

It seems the pattern of chat on these boards is to say..."oh no look at the models...it's coming this way!" then when the models say it will turn..."oh yes look at the models...it will turn"

Don't misunderstand me...I don't have a problem with this talk since that is whole point of these boards....it is just a continual pattern that I have noticed while reviewing these boards the last couple of years. I think it is kind of funny. LOL

Too early for me to get scared but I am definitely watching! Keep up the good discussion!


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Steve H.
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Re: 5 pm update out
      #11359 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:51 PM

OK, so we turn to the west at a higher latitude. West is still west. Shortwave at day 5 may weaken ridge "a little" at this point according to Stewart's discussion. That little part annoys me. As the shortwave departs does the ridge "firm up" again??? Too far out for them to guess on.

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clyde w.
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Re: Too early to tell for me.
      #11360 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:52 PM

I have to wonder IF there had been a NOAA Gulfstream jet sampling the upper atmosphere out ahead of Isabel (Queen Jezebel), if the models, and thus, the forecasts would be significantly different. This is going to be a fascinating few days.

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Jim M
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Re: 5 pm update out
      #11361 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:00 PM

What I find interesting is they are, more or less, tossing the models that show the southerly jog. I understand that they have been consistently left of the verification; but have they really been that far off to discount a possible wsw move in the future?

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Brad in Miami
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Re: 5 pm update out
      #11362 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:03 PM

Steve H.:

I had a different problem with the NHC's statement. The quotation is, "ERODES THE RIDGE A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ISABEL ...." Now, does that mean: (1) erodes the ridge a little bit, in a position to the northwest of Isabel (i.e., "little" modifies the degree of erosion); or (2) erodes the ridge, in a position slightly to the northwest of Isabel (i.e., "little" modifies how far to the northwest)?

But frankly, I think any attempt to predict either exactly how much or exactly where the ridge will erode 5 days from now is like reading tea leaves, so I don't think that ambiguity means anything at this point...but it still left me wondering.


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Kevin
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Re: 5 pm update out
      #11363 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:05 PM

The 5 PM update is pretty much how I expected it to be. Its obvious that Isabel hasn't turned west quite as early as was earlier forecast. But the westward movement should begin within the next 12-24 hours.

After that...I don't know about early next week. It is indeed much too early speculate on whether Isabel will recurve or continue on a more westerly track after 5 days.


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joepub1a
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Re: 5 pm update out
      #11364 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:20 PM

THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A PROFOUND LEFT-OF-TRACK BIAS... ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS. THEREFORE...IT IS TIME TO BAIL OUT ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHIFT THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSER TO THE MORE NORTHERN GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS...BUT IT WAS NOT SHIFTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE UKMET SOLUTION.

I want everybody to know that if she turns W, than WSW like the models still say, I will be on the front lines of the masses demanding that the NHC say their sorry to all the models who just got insulted. Taking the side of the GFDL!!! Is there nowhere in the world where it is still safe to lean to the left a little bit???

THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAAST U.S. AND ERODES THE RIDGE A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ISABEL.

Their begining a long term guessing game now. In the models that feature still doen't pull Isa north, it just slows down some. It might be a very slow turn, but still way out at the edge that they can see.

Joe in JAX


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Bill
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Model bust
      #11365 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:24 PM

As I said---Model bust. I like the NHC language about throwing in the towel---at least someone there finally "looked out the window' at what is really happening.

Down the the line--a fish. We will never see this in Fl, or east coast, maybe Outer Banks, but I doubt that too.

PS--look in the Gulf--home grown trouble?

IHS,
Bill


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Bill
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Re: Model bust
      #11366 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:25 PM

Ok--I will hedge---it's not LIKELY we will see this storm based on current and 144 hr synoptics...

IHS,

BIll


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Bill
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Re: Model bust
      #11367 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:26 PM

Bail out language I meant:)

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doug
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Re: 5 pm update out
      #11368 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:29 PM

If it is the GFDL solution, it will be at 23n/65w and that will be east of the bahamas and out to sea. EDS.

--------------------
doug


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StPeteGuy
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Tampa 'Canes
      #11369 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:52 PM

Zoidy - don't know if anyone said all this but, our biggest threat is not from hurricanes as such - we see more damage from the canes that mount up the Gulf, stall, and whip us since we are East of the storm. We had a noname (low in Gulf that became stationary) storm in 1995 that absolutely drenched us with 20" in 2 days that caused more flooding than anything I had seen since being here from 1968. But generally, since I have been here, the only storms that cruised overhead have been those that spark up out of nowhere from Mexico or in the SW Gulf and head right for us. I have always been more concerned that an Andrew type storm might zero in on us straight from Miami but that hasn't happened that I can remember.

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Justin in Miami
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Re: Model bust
      #11370 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:53 PM

Garbage in = Garbage out. Isabel appears to be following her own path this evening.

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StPeteGuy
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Northerly Turn
      #11371 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:06 PM

I am looking at some military forecasts that predict a strong northerly (WNW) turn at 22N/61N day 5 (from today) and continuing day 6 - 8 making her a fish spinner up the Atlantic coast. I guess it is way too early for anyone's predictions to be that good just yet, but is that what everyone is starting to see too?

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StPeteGuy
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Gulf - SW of New Orleans
      #11372 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:12 PM

I forgot to ask if the flair up in the upper Gulf SW of New Orleans is a daytime thing or if it is getting better organized?? Looks like it want to start heading SE to me??

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Justin in Miami
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European Model
      #11374 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:19 PM

Does anyone have a good link to the European Model Maps?

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HanKFranK
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Re: Model bust
      #11376 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:25 PM

model bust meaning the storm is off a couple hundred miles over three days? thats to be expected. i'm waiting for the definitive turn... and to see whether it bends left past 270 or not. i can see how either model camp could be right, could be something in the middle. the thing i'm looking at right now is the e-w elongation that has been mentioned this afternoon. thats a cue that the upper dynamics around the storm are changing. its a powerful hurricane, and can resist such things.. how much is the question. long term dynamics as i'm reckoning are still under the ridge for most of the period, slow down on the shortwave.. then probably back west after that. there's some reasoning behind that, i'll go touch on it in the forum.
something i keep noticing.. henri's ghost keeps showing up on models.. some actually seem to redevelop the storm off the carolinas around the end of the week and send it back up the western side of the high currently blocking its escape to the northeast. might still be viable.
HF 2225z09september


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HanKFranK
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Re: European Model
      #11377 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:26 PM

www.ecmwf.int
you can navigate a page ahead to it from there.


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Steve H.
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Re: European Model
      #11378 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:27 PM

No...I wish I could find one. Now People we are going to extremes right now. One change to the NHC forecast that shifted to the right now has everyone saying fish. Balderdash. We need to see what Izy does during the next 24 hours, and look at the model trends. We are 8 days out from possible landfall. Things will change tonight/tomorrow, etc> Cheers!!

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: European Model
      #11379 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:29 PM

Steve I still think its fish, I was watching it earlier and thought it but I'm more convinced of it now. I always tend to err toward the less dangerous situations anyway. If things change I will definitely write something new to let opinions be known.

I'm finding more that may agree with you Steve. I may have to bring up the crow and a fork tomorrow as I go through some other info.

Edited by MikeC (Tue Sep 09 2003 07:32 PM)


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Bill
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Not just one thing
      #11382 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:34 PM

That's makes me say fish---it is the cumulation of things. The main thing is, I am an empiricist---observation of what is REALLY happening usually tends to overrule theoretical projections.

The storm is deviating from the 'model consensus" and NHC official track.

The upper low is not weakening, and is not moving as fast as they say out of the way.

Historically, NHC overplays upper low dissipation/movement.

Other factors, too lengthy to go in to here---and, shall we say--intuition.

Result---my feeling, growing over time- that Isabel is a fish---will not even see the Bahamas. Not a conviction yet, but give it 24 hrs and ask me again

IHS,

Bill



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WeatherNLU
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Re: European Model
      #11383 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:34 PM

I have to agree with Steve. I think some people are getting ahead of themselves. It hasn't made a move towards the west yet, but I don't think we can rule it out at this point. It's a little too early to be labeling her a fish spinner.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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SandiaFlower
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Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
      #11692 - Thu Sep 11 2003 03:59 PM

But the deal is the CA coastal waters peak out at in the 60's temp wise. I think a storm needs higher SST's. Disturbances seemed to stop midway on the Baja peninsula. But it could have gotten interesting if it found el nino warmer waters...........LA and other CA locations are not hurricane ready

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SandiaFlower
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Re: ?
      #11695 - Thu Sep 11 2003 04:12 PM

Interesting how people think hurricanes like this are fun to watch. They may be on a computer but a different story once it is in your YARD.

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