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News Talkback >> 2003 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
The Isabel Challenge
      #11144 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:45 AM

Many of you have been a bit critical of the NHC regarding their forecast track for Henri and certainly critical regarding the media emphasis on a significant flood threat for Florida. On the flooding threat, the potential did exist and fortunately it did not materialize - remember, it was a flood Watch, not a flood Warning.

On the NHC performance, their track emphasis was based on the model outputs and the models certainly did not perform well on this system. Some of you correctly noted that with a weak system the model performance can be sub par - and it certainly was. My own preference is to use the model output only as a guide and to ignore them if I have a good reason to disagree. I ended up with the correct track forecast, but that means nothing when its a day late.

Long range forecasting for emergency planning purposes is a tough business to be in, but when lives could be threatened, the forecast must still be made. Here is a challenge for you - it is not intended to be for fun since a hurricane is serious business - its purpose is to demonstrate how difficult this task can be (and to give yourself an idea of how good you might be at this stuff).

Earlier today Tropical Storm Isabel formed in the far eastern Atlantic near 14N 34W at 13Z. Assuming that it does not fall apart before then, Where will Isabel be located at 12Z (8am ET) on September 13th (a week from now)? Give a best guess for latitude, longitude and storm strength (in knots) and post it in this Forum BEFORE 8PM TONIGHT. I'll hold off on making my own forecast post until then (but I'll send it to John right now). Provide rationale for your forecast if you wish, but don't argue that NHC is trained to do this - no amount of training can really help you with a one week forecast. It will sure be interesting to see if anyone (myself included) can come within 2 degrees and 10 knots of what the actual position/intensity is at that point in time.

Don't be shy - give it a try!
Cheers,
ED


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11148 - Sat Sep 06 2003 12:30 PM

September 13th, 2003. 12Z

Hurricane Isabel...21.0 north and 64.0 west. 75 knots (90 mph). Isabel will in the process of intensification after a halt two days before due to the a strip of SAL near the Islands.

There you go.


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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11151 - Sat Sep 06 2003 01:45 PM

September 13, 2003 at 12Z

I go with latitude-19.0 n, longitude-65.0w with winds of 85 mph. Note this is close to current 12Z GFS run. But have a feeling this is a bit to far north, time will tell.


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11152 - Sat Sep 06 2003 01:55 PM

Isabel on Sept 13th 12Z:
20.5N 66.0W, winds 90 Knots.

Looking at the available models I feel the ridge to the north will prevent any significant poleward motion during this time period. Thinking it will be a close call for the northern Leewards.

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11154 - Sat Sep 06 2003 02:23 PM

Sept 13 12Z
I think Isabel will be near 19.5 n and 67.5 w with winds of 110knts


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firestar
Unregistered




Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11155 - Sat Sep 06 2003 02:42 PM

I'll give it a try also. Isabel on Sept 13th 12Z:
19.5N 65.9W, winds 93 mph.



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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11156 - Sat Sep 06 2003 03:39 PM

Lets see, isabel on Sept 13th, 18.5N 64.0 W 100 Knts. Moving WNW due to High Pressure building North of the storm by next weekend.

Edited by Bruce (Sat Sep 06 2003 03:59 PM)


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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11157 - Sat Sep 06 2003 04:06 PM

Sept 13 12Z:
Isabel 20.5N 65.5W @ 100kts moving wnw

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11158 - Sat Sep 06 2003 04:10 PM

OK...23.5N/67.8W, 105 knots; movement WNW (280) 12 knots

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11161 - Sat Sep 06 2003 05:16 PM

Isabel September 13, 2003 @ 12Z
22.8, 63.2 95Kt.

Coop


--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11162 - Sat Sep 06 2003 07:03 PM

12z on 13 september, my lawndart is at 23n 68w, 110kt

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11164 - Sat Sep 06 2003 07:31 PM

Isabel September 13, 2003 @ 12Z
20.5n, 64w 90Kt.


--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11165 - Sat Sep 06 2003 07:43 PM

Woo-wee Ed---7 days !

Here goes:

12 Z on the 13th:

21.5 N 67.5 W 95kts


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 359
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11172 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:07 PM

LOL Your all to funny.
Boy I needed that one thanks all. Im not skilled enough to fathom a position nor do i just want to guess something out, But here go's on whim of nothing other then me guessing how big and wich way the rabbit will come out head first or tail first.

19N 64.5w 70knts just to the ne of purto rico.


Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 06 2003 10:55 PM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11179 - Sat Sep 06 2003 10:56 PM

I know I am past the deadline, but I'll still give a guess. I'll put it in the Mona Passage after just hammering Puerto Rico as a cat. 3 hurricane. Sorry for the bad news Cycloneye.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11181 - Sat Sep 06 2003 11:22 PM

Sorry for running a bit late. Thanks to all of you who decided to give this a try. The cluster of coordinates indicate some excellent skill, and as most of you realize, no humor was intended here. Every forecaster understands the misery that a rough weather situation can cause and strives to reduce his/her margin of forecast error for that very reason. Long before computers and models, forecasters had to develop long range forecasts for transportation, agricultural and national defense reasons. It may not be any easier now, but it sure is quicker.

Here is my guesstimate: 19.5N 65W 95 knots

Cheers,
ED


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11186 - Sun Sep 07 2003 12:32 AM

Think I'm past the deadline and not a professional but will say it will be scraoing along the north coast of Puerto Rico and headed slowly towards the Turks and Caicos...but staying far enough away from the bulk of DR for it to have too much of a problem...low Cat 2

hard to say... a week is a long time away

Snonut taught me never to believe a forecast more than five days out..and going with SNONUT on that one

fun to read, thanks..
Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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ThibodauxWX
Unregistered




Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11191 - Sun Sep 07 2003 10:13 AM

23.5 N - 81.0 W 95 knots.

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SandiaFlower
Unregistered




Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #11663 - Thu Sep 11 2003 01:56 PM

I believe the NHC was giving the worst case scenario as it was possible to happen and wanted to get us all prepared.........nothing wrong with that. And if the worst does not happen than it is a bonus.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: The Isabel Challenge
      #12181 - Sat Sep 13 2003 08:26 AM

It looks like about 22.1N 61.0W, but I'll wait until the next update for the official NHC coordinates. Intensity will probably remain at 130 knots.
Movement appears to be just north of due west. In the past 24 hours, Isabel has moved about 30 miles North and about 215 miles West. In the past few days, all of the tropical models have moved the hurricane too fast to the west, but the BAMM has been fairly good with the latitude.
Cheers,
ED


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