Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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this late check after the all-star game and i dont see much of anything. low level feature going away west, upper ridge quashed, convection gone. there really isnt much to track.. maybe it will reorganize further west, or maybe this one is done. models showing a pretty dead week.
HanKFranK aikenSC 0511z10july
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Evryone on the east coast should keep an eye out early next week , its getting that time when the cape verd could fire one out before the gulf. It hasent happend for a while, so why not this year  . There is disturbance at 10n 42w wich has nice circulation and the best outflow i hace scene all season. The disturbance has just come out of of colder water (77F) and is entering warmer water, once past 50w it will encounter much more favorable water temps (80-81F) for development.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 366
Loc: Southeast, FL
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I forgot to login on That one
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Matthew
Unregistered
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The avn model shows a weak low area and the atlantic so that will need to be watched.  There low wil more likely be a weak low and for now. I have not looked at it yet so that will takes some time. A t.d and the eastern pacific looks weak but  all models want make a nice hurricane out of it. The western pacific look nice looking wish it was the atlantic right now maybe later!!!. No less and three named storms at this time and maybe one more soon there a fair and 1.0 one one invest. There even a invest and the southern part of earth for wishing at lound  so that low and the eastern gulf no chance. l
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Matthew
Unregistered
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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There ants on my bed they have bit my for the last time. plus I NO WHY THERE NO TROPICAL WEATHER THOSE DINO JERKS ARE MESSING IT UP I hate the people that mess with mother nature I help they all die from a hurricane. he he sssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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It's third morning in a row to get up around 6:30 am with the sounds of rain and thunder. The radar is lit up agian. Getting really soggy in a lot of places, much standing water.
A look at the WV shows the dryer air that came in from NE yesterday afternoon and split the area in GOM. It now shows a beautiful cyclonic spin centered roughly over the big lake, (Okeechobee).
Seems to my eyes to have created a buffer that pushed back or allowed the flow of moisture from the SE to bank up agianst it. If anything looks like posible development has been pushed back SE about 200 miles.
Really interesting weather this week.
Colleen was so correct in saying how much you learn from the reading online and learning to use the tools that now seem so normal but a few years ago were inaccessable to all but the pros.
Anyways, check it out this morning and give some feedback on my experienced but unofficial musings
Watching the rain
Hurric
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
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Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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Me too. Seems like it is a dailey, early morning scenario. Looking at the latest water vapor loop it looks like an upper low crossed over central Florida last night bringing in the rain from the South. Looks like more to come later today and again in the morning. Anyone look at Tropical StormRisk.com July 8 update for this season. He's comparing this season with 97. How, I don't know. Two different El Nino's. Ya have to go in read it for yourself. Well everyone in S.Florida have a safe and WET day.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Regarding the eastern GOM..
1. Pressure still high in area
2. Convection, although fell off last night, is on the comeback
3. Reviewing the water vapor loop it appears that there is an ULL that has cross central FL and is exiting the Tampa/St P. area also headed for the GOM.
4. I believe this ULL is also contributing to the convection increase with the GOM system.
5. I also think that the ULL will hinder any further development of this system for the time being due to its close proximity.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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well 96L is still being assigned D-numbers of 1.0 / 1.0 today. Early visible imagery shows that most of the convection are in the southern two quadrants, with the NW and NE quadrants both relatively convection free. However, given the increase in convection, there is a posibility that the system may develop if the convective activity can consolidate near the centre. Still, an interesting looking system, and one to keep an eye on!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Latest vis sat loop indicates that there is at least a weak mid level system rotating IMO south of Mobile near 27.3N and 87.2W. Last loops show some convection building off to the north and east of the broad center.. this is quite a bit off of where this system was yesterday... looks to be moving west .... strange things these tropical systems.... not exactly what I expected from the vis sat loop this am...
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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One more observation... look at the water vapor loop... the mid level rotation is sandwiched between two ULLs, one coming off the coast of Florida and the other westsouthwest of the mid level low south of Mobile... looks like a rather hostile environment for any thing to develop at the present time
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Matthew
Unregistered
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I was looking at this and said wow it looks tight low leavel or middle center at 27.3 86.8. Plus there a thunderstorms forming on its north side so the d-scale 1.0 so 25 mph winds and if this thunderstorm keeps forming than there a chance for a t.d by later on today that if this thing blooms up fast and there a chace but we look at another low to the west and that might take some of its fire so just watching so 20 percent t.d soon look like a few rainbands with the system. Matthew
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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applying the weird behavior rules of previous systems to this one, i've noticed some similarities--
1)displaced convection: very little at the low center, some on 'bands' in the SE quadrant, most of it clustered off west florida.
2)daily convective peak: usually with tropical systems you get a noctural convective maxima.. convection peaks overnight. all our recent invests tend to lose nighttime convection and get it back in the morning.. convection has been historically associated with convergence lines, areas of upper diffluence, seabreeze fronts, and mccs. the low never shares in the wealth.
3)broad surface low with stable pressures: systems remain clear and discrete at the low levels.. 96L has a low level wind field at least 400 miles in diameter right now.. and a lowest centreal pressure of maybe 1015mb that hasnt risen or fallen appreciably.
i have to admit that the low on this one looks more focused than 95L's...not oblong. maybe if some convection would form there and tighten this baby up we'd get something. as is, 15kt winds is all the ferocity this one has to offer.
pressures over land are going to start falling in about a day up to the north as a surface trough approaches. this should halt the mostly wnw movement of 96L, then drift it north to the coast. based on extrapolated movement i'd reckon it to be coming up near SE louisiana. so if a storm forms, steve and frank p are getting it.
without the previous failures i'd be more optimistic about 96L's chances, but given recent history.. i give it a 40% standing chance of becoming something.
HanKFranK aikenSC 1551z10july
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Remember how Gabrielle formed last year ? The same way , an ULL crossed over the state of Florida then sat in the Gulf and built ,till it found it's way out thru Sarasota / Bradenton. Not saying this is going to happen again , I just remember the same conditions last September
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Yeah, I remember Rad. Also have read several different opionins on how old gabby was a minimal Hurrican at land fall but they never announced it perhap because it was so soon after 9/11. Went to be it was 40 mph headed to Ft. Myer wole up and it's coming in just south of us at 70 mph. From what I read the pressure reading at landfall was low enough to support Cat 1. I lost quite a few big branches from that one.
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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I remember too Caneman, my barometer dropped to 985 mbs' it was real close.I was out on St Pete Beach with an Anemometer it was recording 75MPH winds with gust to 90 , I could barely stand up !
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Good post HF... I agree... especially if this system can tighten up a bit and get some more convection near its center then maybe in a day or so it has a chance...
Also think we're all sorta getting a little gun shy on predicting what will or will not develop based on our experiences to date this season... apparently mother nature not in a cooperative mood the year
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garyb
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962002) ON 20020710 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020710 1200 020711 0000 020711 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.0N 87.0W 27.3N 88.4W 27.5N 89.8W
BAMM 27.0N 87.0W 27.2N 88.3W 27.3N 89.6W
A98E 27.0N 87.0W 27.2N 88.4W 27.4N 89.6W
LBAR 27.0N 87.0W 27.4N 88.5W 27.9N 89.8W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020712 0000 020712 1200 020713 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.9N 90.9W 28.4N 91.4W 31.2N 89.0W
BAMM 27.5N 90.7W 27.8N 91.4W 30.2N 90.2W
A98E 27.1N 90.5W 27.2N 90.7W 29.2N 89.8W
LBAR 28.6N 90.6W 29.4N 90.8W 32.5N 87.8W
SHIP 33KTS 43KTS 59KTS
DSHP 33KTS 33KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.0N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 26.4N LONM12 = 85.3W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 25.7N LONM24 = 83.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Help!!
I am planning a trip to Grand Isle, Louisiana this weekend. Will this thing impact my trip? If so, how much? Thanks
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