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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 84 (Nicholas) , Major: 99 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1153 (Michael) Major: 1153 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Ira
Unregistered




Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
      #11261 - Mon Sep 08 2003 04:19 PM

Off the top of my head I can think of two other September
hurricanes that followed tracks comparable to the predicted one for Isabelle.

Fredrick, in 1979 and Georges, in 1998. As I recall Fredrick came NW from about the same location as Isabelle and did a SW dive just before reaching the northeast Caribbean. It then crossed the length of Cuba before turning into the Gulf. Georges followed a similar path but came further north
between Florida and Cuba.

I guess I recall these vividly since they both impacted Mississippi.

Ira
Columbia, MS


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Bill
Unregistered




TD 14 is tanking...
      #11262 - Mon Sep 08 2003 04:34 PM

Looks like it is getting sheared and dried out. Unless it flares again tonight--it's a goner.

IHS,

Bill


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bobbi
Unregistered




RIP Henri however
      #11263 - Mon Sep 08 2003 05:55 PM

notice more than a few people insist it will be out ther ein some way or the other for a while

td14? I think its a bit too early to write it off...

maybe... a near Cat 4 out there needs to dance center stage in the central atlantic right now...

beautiful... dancing just north of west

hey cyclone... watch out, please

bobbi
ps... going to wait for a few more model runs and watch what happens before wondering on where it will be next weekend..

first comes the islands


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: RIP Henri however
      #11264 - Mon Sep 08 2003 07:12 PM

td 14 has something bad wrong with it.. losing its convection right along near the ITCZ. might not ever be juan if this keeps up. perhaps the wave approaching behind it will inject some moisture or flood out some of the mid level dry air that seems to be intruding.. but if it doesnt, this weak system will degenerate into the monsoon trough. needless to say i think the official forecast and most of the model runs curving it up have the wrong idea about it developing quickly... probably just trudge westward for the near future if it survives.
one other note before isabel.. watch the rather weak wave near the central caribbean. several globals track it slowly westward for the near future, and it may be in a favorable environment in the western caribbean. with henri out of the way it will be entering an area where the pattern favors development.
that said.. isabel. it's done the strengthening i'd guessed it would, now motion becomes the big issue. it's still climbing wnw.. and will have to make that model consensus westward bend in the next day or so to not throw the lot of them. there was a good bit of clustering earlier, and there still is.. but some of them bend isabel ridiculously southwestward in the long range.. do wonder what's causing that oddity. the bend isnt in the official, for reasons stated in the discussion.. but if we start seeing it, the NE caribbean becomes a very dangerous place in about four days. i'll leave the long term position speculation to the rest of you.. until it's getting close to the islands and medium range modeling starts placing it near the u.s. or elsewhere.
all the oohs and aahs about how beautiful isabel is.. let it be beautiful 1500 miles out to sea. it's too powerful now to look pretty anywhere else.
HF 2312z08september


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: RIP Henri however
      #11265 - Mon Sep 08 2003 07:22 PM

site that gives some steering currents http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.GIF

Edited by javlin (Mon Sep 08 2003 07:24 PM)


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Isabel
      #11266 - Mon Sep 08 2003 07:33 PM

I agree that no one needs that type of beauty on their front or back door step. But Oh my, just look at her out there, she is magnificent looking on sat loops today. Thats the pic I have been waiting to see.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
the WSW bend...
      #11267 - Mon Sep 08 2003 08:04 PM

Yeah...until that WSW tug on some of the models goes away we have to really keep an eye on the track. Some show recurvature possibilities but when you cut he distance between the other ones its still west bound.

Imagine it just sees a stronger ridge than the others do... i guess... would like to know what keeps them so persistently so.

That being said...they probably will all straighten out and show recurvature soon.

any thoughts..would love to hear them

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Alex
Unregistered




Westward turn?
      #11268 - Mon Sep 08 2003 08:09 PM

It looks like Isabel may be starting the slow westward turn that is much forcasted in the models. Or it may just be a wobble

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met
Unregistered




Re: the WSW bend...
      #11270 - Mon Sep 08 2003 08:38 PM

there is going to be stong high pressure ridge in s.e. and over fla. down the road. afraid no big recurve with this powerful and dangerous hurricane.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Westward turn?
      #11271 - Mon Sep 08 2003 08:40 PM

Gonna be interesting to see just how far west this beast will go.... easy for me to say, no big deal, in all probability this thing should recurve out to sea, another fish spinner (except for them poor Bermuda folks)...

If I had a hunch, that would be my first inclination, a safe bet .... but I don't have a good read on this one yet.... gonna really depend on that Bermuda High... stays strong, bad news US.... I'm hearing talk of a trough that is supposed to come down this weekend..... we'll see what impact this has, if any, on the ridge... not impossible for this thing to affect the SE US or even GOM, although the GOM might be a stretch right now... other cape verde storms have made the long run across the atlantic and made it to the GOM ... a few that come to mind include; Georges, Storm of 1947, Andrew, Betsy with her famous loop in the Atlantic, I'm sure there are many others.. ... of course each and every one of em were different, and this one will be too.... just the same, with these things anything and everything is possible....

I thought the models had their best performance of the year with Fabian, maybe in the past two years for that matter... always said that models perform much better with mature systems as opposed the weaker developing ones... now will they get two in a row?????

Local mets (radio) in the NO area are already taking about a cold front that should shunt the system off to the north... and should not pose any threat to the NO area.... they didn't really go into any specifics on just why and how all this was going to work but they are already discussing the approaching front.... hmmmmm


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Westward turn?
      #11272 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:03 PM

Its early in the game, but I don't like the set up. I'll leave it at that. the ridge is further west on this one than Fabian, and the ECMWF shows it at 22N/75W heading WNW. The ridge will be strong, but for how long. Trough talk is hall talk for the weekend, and since Henri isn't there like the models thought earlier, well, as the HPC discussion says, the trough is currently progged to stay in the heart land of the CONUS. Way early, but I don't like. Strange night in central Florida, with a cool breeze from the west, like a trough came through, probably the following wind behind Henri. Isabel is turning west now, you can see the E - W orientation that previously was N - S, and the convection is on the west side. The eye will follow. Cheers!!

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Westward turn?
      #11273 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:10 PM

I dont like what is taking place tonight as she is more powerful probably a cat 4 at 11 PM and showing signs of a more west motion.Is it a wobble that intense hurricanes do or the west turn that has begun and if the second is confirmed then islander,me and the fellow islanders in the northern islands will have a big problem.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Westward turn?
      #11274 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:27 PM

Why are some of the models showing an eventual SW turn into the islands? What is the reasoning behind this, is the ridge to the north building strongly southwestward or is this in reaction to the ULL to the southwest of isabel. If someone could shed some light on this reasoning, i'd appreciate it. Here's a model link showing the eventual SW move.

http://files.hurricanealley.net/images/AL1303TRP.gif

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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BJG
Unregistered




Ridge?
      #11275 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:31 PM

Could anyone please post the latest model runs with regard to the high pressure ridge forecast on Sunday-Monday as well as the expected impact the proposed trough will have...thank you>

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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Westward turn?
      #11276 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:33 PM

At this strength, CAT 4, Won't she spin herself out by the time she gets close enough to E.C. to make a difference? I know that a strong storm lasted a month in the Pacific, but it did not have islands to cross.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Westward turn?
      #11277 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:37 PM

That's certainly an interesting model run TG.. you take the average of em and boy Puerto Rico and Cycloneye might have a serious problem on their hands... I have not look at much data tonight but my first guess would be the ridge building back into the area and Isadore being steered by the southern most edge of the ridge's perimeter.... tropical systems just love to ride the outer perimeters of these big high pressure ridges.. great for steering..... and when you have them around it makes for an easier forcast for where they might go..... just my guess however as to the WSW track...

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Westward turn?
      #11278 - Mon Sep 08 2003 09:43 PM

I would say and I think Frank P. eluded to this also... the High is going to be the main factor in "I"'s travel. This may be the best "Fear Factor NHC Style" yet! I would look at all info day by day. Your model map is accurate for 18Z as best I can tell... wait and see

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Westward turn?
      #11280 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:29 PM

wobble maybe. if it's doing it for four hours or so you can start considering it a turn. think maybe i'm starting to see how the upper pattern ahead of isabel is evolving. upper trough ahead is stretching and disconnecting, with the northeastern of the three upper centers nudging east, the middle one pinwheeling westward around the large one to the south (which is heading west itself). as the trough to the west breaks down it may become an outflow jet, with the ridging currently north of the trough building across the hurricane. meanwhile the upper trough behind isabel continues to dig in, in tandem with its advance. basically there will be two ventilating upper lows on either side, with a ridge built across to the north.. if i'm reading the wv evolution right. models are trending toward the remnant disturbed weather with henri to shear away, though some persist the disturbed weather. the upper system ahead of isabel is tracked wnw to near the bahamas, then GFS degenerates it to a trough and sends it out as shortwave over the east grabs it.. around the weekend.. while some of the upper energy associated with the shortwave splits and digs into the central u.s. the result of this is the subtropical ridge north of isabel advancing into the southeastern united states in about a week... with the storm advancing underneath.
for this to verify it will take a lot of things happening together.. models will evolve closer to the truth over time.. all it takes is the model tendencies to weaken upper troughs too quickly, or time shortwaves wrong or get the amplification of ridges/troughs incorrect down the road.. but if things verify even close to the current trends we could have a very bad situation on our hands next week.
other things to watch..
1) TD 14. if the convection doesnt regenerate in the next 12hrs or so, call it dead. watch to see if it goes up ahead of the upper trough ahead of it, or if it keeps low and nudges westward as weak system.
2) wave near 70w. this is a weak wave, but it may move into a favorable environment by late in the week west of jamaica.
3) henri's tail. trough tails back from henri's low towards south florida. upper ridging that henri originally developed under is the currently the western piece of the subtropical ridge.. trough under ridge.. you get the picture. low to the north would have to weaken for it to become a significant feature.
4) pacific development. watch the ITCZ disturbance near 90w, a developing eastpac system would alter the nearby upper air features, propagating upstream into the atlantic. it might also precipitate more atlantic development
5) fabian's wake. isabel is north of it, and shouldnt cross it (if it follows the NHC path) for about 3 days. still, it crossed fabians early path a few hours ago, and the convective tops have weakened some (may be an effect of dry air entrainment, or the start of eyewall contraction cycles).
there, thats enormous and probably pseudo-science as i've possibly analyzed past the extent of what i know about synoptic weather.. but just maybe i've got some of the ideas right.
HF 0230z09september


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Jim M
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Poinciana, Fl
Re: Westward turn?
      #11281 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:29 PM

The big question is, why are some of the models taking the WSW movement? Really too early to tell if they are actually picking up on something or just exhibiting a model bias. I think the answer should be more apparent in 48 hours. It was stated earlier that the models tended to handle well formed traditional systems well. I concur. At least through 72 hours. Not really ready to trust any model much beyond that. Going to be interesteing to see how the system and current evolve over the next week.

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Westward turn?
      #11282 - Mon Sep 08 2003 10:35 PM

Thanks Frank P and storm cooper for your insight on the movement. Local meteorologists are all over this here in South Fla, some saying the SW perimeter of the ridge will erode in time to allow a north turn east of the bahamas, others being more cautious and taking a wait and see approach, one position they do agree on though is that by this weekend isabel will be near or just north of the leewards.

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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