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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing heavy training rain with isolated tornadoes also possible today in S TX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 335 (Nicholas) , Major: 351 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1405 (Michael) Major: 1405 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Westward turn?
      #11283 - Mon Sep 08 2003 11:06 PM

I second those thank yous Tropics Guy, but while we're passing them out, I give one to HankFrank, too. Very helpful insights today (as always, but with Isabel I'm paying a lot more attention to the board).

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
11pm advisory
      #11284 - Mon Sep 08 2003 11:40 PM

the 11pm discussion goes in to some of the things i was thinking about.. one point it negates is the timing on isabel hitting fabians SST wake... sooner than i'd guessed. the sw bias on some of the globals is explained.. attributed to the upper low following the storm. thats the critical interaction in the next couple of days to look for.. if the storm starts edging south of west then we've got an imminent problem for the islands. NHC is careful to add the turn back to the wnw at the end of every forecast track.. though the reasoning isnt explained. i suppose its based on a suspicion of a ridge weakness theyre not ready to take to court. most bothersome model has been the ECMWF.. tomorrow evening when the 12Z runs for september 9th are posted, i'd start worrying if the track keeps going into the bahamas. note that GFS is going back and forth, but at least two runs have shown isabel heading north to new england/nova scotia. more give the familiar stop at the turks and caicos-bermuda-cape race solution... but thats GFS for ya.
td 14 looked better last night before it was classified. the cat 1 hurricane forecast is replaced by a weak t.s. forecast.. i give it 40% at surviving right now. juan will have to wait.
HF 0340z09september


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 355
Loc: Southeast, FL
Fabian surf
      #11285 - Mon Sep 08 2003 11:59 PM

Well swell from fabian where i was stuart florida i go to power plant to surf though was head high with occasional 1 foot over head. Beutifull mackers that you can get barreld on. friday was Awsome Unfortunutly my friend matt broke his neck and that cut the days surfing short he will be okay and is lucky he can still walk. lesson for the day dont dive through the back of the wave ever i will no longer after this accident.

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MiamiChris
Unregistered




Re: 11pm advisory
      #11286 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:00 AM

It would not surprise me to see Isabel die a quick death on its way across the Leeward Islands. The mid/upper level low currently in that area has slowed to a crawl and has remained intact. The upper level low to the east of Isabel is following along as planned (currently providing good outflow to the east). It seems reasonable to me that these two ULLs will soon begin a squeeze play. Isabel appears to be residing in an ever shrinking envelope. If that envelope becomes too restrictive, Isabel's center will be driven southwest and exposed while the bulk of the convection is sheared off toward the north and east. I hate to be so graphic - especially when describing the demise such a beautiful storm. Hard to imagine such a sordid scenario in light of the storms current intensity, but you never know. IMHO.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
?
      #11287 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:07 AM

well, thats one for isabel pulling a debby. off the wall forecast of the year award goes to miami chris if he nails it. i give it a roughly -1% chance of ever coming about.
HF 0407z09september


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
heh
      #11288 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:12 AM

graphic! disemboweled hurricane... sordid! honestly.. its not like a puppy getting hit by a car. more like a rabid kodiak bear getting put down by animal control.
oh, poor t.d. 14 is melting before my eyes.. i can't bear to watch!
just goofin'
HF 0412z09september


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MiamiChris
Unregistered




Re: ?
      #11289 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:20 AM

I know it's pretty far fetched. Perhaps I'm still a little crazy from all the Gator in my belly. I really would like to see Isabel live a long, healthy life. I have nothing but respect for her. She may just have to work a little bit harder than her predecessor.

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 355
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: ?
      #11290 - Tue Sep 09 2003 12:27 AM

Dont worry this bitch means buisness. My neigbors in the bahamas are going to be very unhappy campers come this weekend.

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: ?
      #11292 - Tue Sep 09 2003 01:02 AM

Not so far fetched... If I remember correctly the 00Z NOGAPS had Isabel falling apart just as it crossed the Leewards. But the 12Z is totally different.

Bill


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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Isabel
      #11293 - Tue Sep 09 2003 02:30 AM

This is a beautiful pic of Isabel, I just wish it showed her going the other way.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/images/isabel090803-1945z.jpg


--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: Isabel
      #11294 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:57 AM

Looking at the most recent sat loops in comparison to those at the last advisary...making me think we now have at least a 145mph storm. Either I 1. have no clue what I'm talking about or 2. think we're gonna see T numbers of 6.5. I'm hesistant to say the NHC will make it a 5 till at least 11A - especially if we see the same overnight crew..which has tended to want to be on the conservative side.

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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: Isabel
      #11295 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:48 AM

Well either I was wrong in my estimate or I was right about the night crew being conservative. The latest IR images seemed much more symetrical with colder tops than at 11p...but who am I to second guess. I'm just the strange guy that writes on here at 3am when everyone else is sleeping

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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 153
Loc: United States
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11296 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:49 AM

Isabel is sure going to be a tough one to predict what she will do within the next week. Does she become a fish spinner, go into the carribean or head for the US east cost?
I found a site thats fun to play with. It has previous storms and you pick the storm, hit the play button and watch them move across the screen.
http://html.nbc5i.com/sh/idi/weather/hurricanes/hurricanetracker.html

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11297 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:28 AM

The ridge looks to be building to the W.yesterday at 70W this morning almost 80W,also some extremity's in the GOM further W .The pressure out their is probably weaker.If the data correct for the most part should maybe see the WSW possibly start NE of the Leeward Islands.I make the assumptions on the info I posted on pg 5 might all be bogus but looks to following the ridge. Probably just a wobble W in the last frame. The sight I posted earlier is http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.GIF

Edited by javlin (Tue Sep 09 2003 08:35 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Isabel to Domino
      #11298 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:44 AM

It's okay Domino...there are a lot of strange people round here, you could be doing a lot worse at 3 am I am sure.

Nice not to have a boring sure thing out there.... in a day or so we'll know which way she's going to play it.

More than you can say for the other aspects of our life..it seems.

At least you got something to watch.

Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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spky2001
Unregistered




Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11299 - Tue Sep 09 2003 08:33 AM

Does anyone have any thoughts on what the high pressure will be doing after day 5? Will it have built more west, moved east, weakened or split?



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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West
      #11300 - Tue Sep 09 2003 08:56 AM

Split, then possibly rebuild underneath what was Henri or it remnants; or split, then the high establishes itself further NE over the weekend, leaving weak ridging behind. That will change by 3pm! LOL!! Cheers!!

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Do the northern islands are out of the woods or not?
      #11301 - Tue Sep 09 2003 09:39 AM

The west turn may haved started this morning but will it move WSW as some models project because if that happens then we here in the islands will have to deal with more than a band or two passing by.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Do the northern islands are out of the woods or not?
      #11302 - Tue Sep 09 2003 09:46 AM

Isabel's motion the last few frames look like it's heading just north of west, so the west turn has begun which may not be good news for the leewards.

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
model camps
      #11303 - Tue Sep 09 2003 09:50 AM

those ECMWF runs sure are troublesome, but i've noticed that while they continue to advance the storm far to the west, the globals in general have been slowing the storm, some adding the sw wiggle that is now showing in the official forecast. whereas about 48 hours ago the forecast position was just NE of the virgin islands, now it's just N of the virgin islands.. for example. euro is taking it 3-400 miles west of there in that time. some of the statistical leading models from the NHC suite are leaning towards the ukmet, a relatively straight wnw track. GFDL is like a northward version of GFS, while the beta advection bunch and NOGAPS have the exaggerated sw jerk over the next 3 days that brings the storm very close to the islands. GFS i'm taking with some skepticism.. in various runs it's taking current TD 14 to the north of isabel.. catching it up and feeding it to her.. and weakening the ridge. thats all about a week out, and every GFS run at that range will have significant flaws and run to run changes. just don't believe that.. leaning more towards the modeling that keeps TD 14 weak and moves it as little as possible.
so now, if anything, isabel won't be to--or just north of--the northern islands until the weekend, not friday as earlier progged... so whether a real u.s. threat will exist for next week won't be apparent until the weekend. that's unless isabel starts moving faster.. and since it's advancing with the upper flow, i'd expect the global consensus on westward progression to be essentially correct.
HF 1350z09september


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