clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Thanks Jamie.
Kevin--my thoughts exactly. Melbourne tends to highlight the dire possibilities earlier than any of the Florida NWS sites, but the scenario mentioned still would not bode well for anywhere in the peninsula. Just trying to wait and see, but this one looks a bit more ominous. Lots of time for things to change though...
|
Steve H.
Unregistered
|
|
Thanks Brad
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm6/wg8dlm6java.html
Ridge now building, steering currents are REALLY perking up in speed just west of Isabel. It's gonna turn soon. The ULL is moving west, but it's also weakening fast. You can tell on the lastest WV loop, the ULL is losing its defintion.
BTW...just got high speed cable internet in today. Used to have dial-up...boy were we missing out on some speed! The link I just posted takes about 15 seconds on my machine. Now I can really do some heavy-duty evaluating  .
|
Steve H.
Unregistered
|
|
Kevin, think this will speed up the forward motion of Isabel?? she seems to have been swimming against the tide IMO. Frankly I haven't mapped out the forecast of her forward speed 
|
Beach
Unregistered
|
|
Thanks! 
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
A motion towards the west at 18-20 mph in 24-36 hours looks to be in order I believe. It is absolutely AMAZING to see how some people on the other message boards are calling this thing a fish already. I'll bet you that half of them don't even use the steering currents link I provided. Steve-LOL-I'm not trying to call you and idiot or anything, but your brain is being littered from all of the junk on some of the other boards right now. Isabel will turn west within the next 12-24 hours, and probably closer to 12 than 24. A strong ridge is building in north of Isabel, and that's a fact.
Just watch Isabel carefully. We should have a much clearer idea of what the storm will do come the weekend.
|
hypercane
Unregistered
|
|
Losing its definition? I don't claim to be a weather expert, but I'm looking at the water vapor loop, and to me it appears that the upper level low is becoming more broad, covering a wider area. I just don't see how Isabel is going to turn west. The steering out in front of it still looks like southerly flow to me, and indeed the storm seems to be heading purely NW. I don't see where this west turn will happen. But then again, I didn't see where Fabian was going to turn so abruptly north, either.
|
Lisa NC
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
|
|
Her outflow bands tend to more east and west at the moment, seems like she is getting ready to turn more to the left. The swirl in front of Isa was there yesterday but has developed more convection today. Is there any chance something is trying to fire there?
--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
The center of the ULL is currently located at about 22N and 62W. Now...if you look carefully at the steering currents link that I posted, you can see the southwest-northeast orientation of the air flow around the ULL. Here's what we have:
1. The ULL is currently moving west, while the high pressure is building the north of it.
Isabel is essentially being steered by the high pressure completely. The flow that Isabel is in right now is still ese-wnw, thus a wnw movement overall. As Isabel hits the section of the high that is building, she will turn west. I think some may be confused about what is predominately steering Isabel. One look at the steering currents indicates that Isabel is currently being steered by the high pressure...the kink in the air around the ULL far enough west that it may not be influencing Isabel much at all right now.
|
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
|
|
hypercane: may want to get more-informed input re: this matter, but I think the west turn should take place because of the huge high pressure ridge above Isabel; assuming there isn't a weakness in the ridge that the isn't seeing, it should turn somewhat more westerly.
Therefore, if the ULL didn't continue its march westward, it would have more of a tendency to shear Isabel than to turn her north, because the high pressure ridge wouldn't allow her to turn abruptly north. (Assuming, of course, a weakness in that ridge doesn't develop; if one does, then the ULL can turn her north.)
Lisa: are you referring to the upper level low around 62 West? If so, it's always possible it could work its way down to the surface, but it's highly unlikely.
|
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
|
|
I meant "AT LEAST somewhat more westerly," not "somewhat more westerly."
|
hypercane
Unregistered
|
|
I gotcha...and I do see what you speak of, on that steering currents page. I am just having trouble reconciling that with what I see on the water vapor loop. Oh well, we'll see.
|
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
|
|
more northward, closer to ; steering currents weaken after 5 days
|
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
|
|
If I wasn't clear there, what I wrote are some highlights from the 5 pm discussion
|
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
|
|
It seems the pattern of chat on these boards is to say..."oh no look at the models...it's coming this way!" then when the models say it will turn..."oh yes look at the models...it will turn"
Don't misunderstand me...I don't have a problem with this talk since that is whole point of these boards....it is just a continual pattern that I have noticed while reviewing these boards the last couple of years. I think it is kind of funny. LOL
Too early for me to get scared but I am definitely watching! Keep up the good discussion!
|
Steve H.
Unregistered
|
|
OK, so we turn to the west at a higher latitude. West is still west. Shortwave at day 5 may weaken ridge "a little" at this point according to Stewart's discussion. That little part annoys me. As the shortwave departs does the ridge "firm up" again??? Too far out for them to guess on.
|
clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
I have to wonder IF there had been a NOAA Gulfstream jet sampling the upper atmosphere out ahead of Isabel (Queen Jezebel), if the models, and thus, the forecasts would be significantly different. This is going to be a fascinating few days.
|
Jim M
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Poinciana, Fl
|
|
What I find interesting is they are, more or less, tossing the models that show the southerly jog. I understand that they have been consistently left of the verification; but have they really been that far off to discount a possible wsw move in the future?
|
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
|
|
Steve H.:
I had a different problem with the 's statement. The quotation is, "ERODES THE RIDGE A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ISABEL ...." Now, does that mean: (1) erodes the ridge a little bit, in a position to the northwest of Isabel (i.e., "little" modifies the degree of erosion); or (2) erodes the ridge, in a position slightly to the northwest of Isabel (i.e., "little" modifies how far to the northwest)?
But frankly, I think any attempt to predict either exactly how much or exactly where the ridge will erode 5 days from now is like reading tea leaves, so I don't think that ambiguity means anything at this point...but it still left me wondering.
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
The 5 PM update is pretty much how I expected it to be. Its obvious that Isabel hasn't turned west quite as early as was earlier forecast. But the westward movement should begin within the next 12-24 hours.
After that...I don't know about early next week. It is indeed much too early speculate on whether Isabel will recurve or continue on a more westerly track after 5 days.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
